Behind the Story: A Looming Hollywood Writers’ Strike

It’s been 15 years since Hollywood writers have been on strike — since a 100-day work stoppage ground TV production to a halt and cost the Los Angeles economy $2.1 billion.

Now, a screenwriters’ strike is once again on the table.

The unions representing thousands of TV and movie writers voted overwhelmingly this week to authorize a walkout, giving union leaders the right to call for one as soon as May 1, my colleagues John Koblin and Brooks Barnes reported.

Much like the last strike, which ended in early 2008 and centered on the emergence of online shows and movies, the current conflict comes at what feels like a turning point for the industry.

Major studios have invested billions of dollars in scripted television as streaming entertainment has taken off. From 2012 to 2022, the number of English-language TV series in the United States jumped to 599 from 288. But writers feel as though their salaries have stagnated, John told me.

“Some veteran writers have argued they are doing more work for either the same or less money from just a few years ago,” he said. “Junior writers are finding it very difficult to break into the business.”

A strike isn’t guaranteed, and there are still a few weeks to broker a deal to avert one, as happened in 2017. But things don’t look hopeful, Brooks told me.

“Given near-deadlock at the negotiating table this time around,” he said, “agencies have quietly told their clients that they expect a strike, and some studios in recent days have changed their messaging to producers: Shift all of your focus to strike preparations — it’s happening.”

Here’s more of my conversation with John and Brooks about the looming strike and how it could affect Californians working in the entertainment industry, TV watchers and Angelenos in general:

Why are union leaders calling this an existential moment for writers?

John: Back in the days of traditional network television, episode orders could be as many as 22 to 26 episodes a season. Writers who landed in a writers’ room for a show like “Friends” or “ER” could work on one show and make a very good living doing it.

However, in the streaming era, episode orders could be as short as eight or 10 episodes, leaving some writers scrambling to find another job to keep themselves going for a year.

So if a strike happens, what does that mean for people who, like me, love TV?

Brooks: It depends on what kind of TV you love. Reality shows and news programs would not be affected because they are covered by different union contracts. HBO works so far ahead that shows would keep rolling off its assembly line as normal, at least for several months. The same is true, to an extent, at Netflix and the other big streaming services, which could keep their shelves full by importing more shows from overseas.

But late-night talk shows would go dark almost immediately, because they use writers to massage the news of the day into comedic segments and monologues. “Saturday Night Live” could be forced to end its season early. Daytime shows that use union writers would struggle — “The View” is one — while soap operas like “The Young and the Restless” would run out of new episodes after about a month. A strike lasting into late June could threaten the fall returns of shows like “Abbott Elementary” and “Chicago P.D.”

What about movies?

Brooks: Your summer blockbusters and fall sophisticated dramas are safe: Film studios work roughly a year ahead. The challenge for movies could come next year, depending on a strike’s length.

What does a walkout look like if you work in Hollywood?

Brooks: The making of television is a sprawling endeavor that depends on directors, actors, costume designers, set builders, electricians, hairstylists, camera operators, drivers, lighting technicians, casting directors, publicists — and, yes, writers. All of those people would be out of a job.

A lot of ancillary businesses — flower shops, lumber yards, dry cleaners, hotels — would also be hurt. Agents would lose commissions.

You wrote that the 2007 writers’ strike cost the Los Angeles economy $2.1 billion. What else contributed to that loss?

Brooks: The strike’s effect was magnified because entertainment workers cut back on personal spending. Some restaurants and clothing stores that catered to Hollywood went out of business as a result of the 2007 strike. And it wasn’t just Los Angeles that was walloped: The Milken Institute estimated that the strike took an $830 million bite out of statewide retail sales.

For more:

What we’re eating

Spring carrot pickles with caraway.

Where we’re traveling

Today’s tip comes from Kathleen Zehner, who recommends an escape in Marin County:

“I once joked that if you were having a nervous breakdown, Muir Woods is where you should go. Truly it is such a calming serene environment. The beautiful tall trees and fresh air — it is one of my very favorite places to have a nice walk.”

Tell us about your favorite places to visit in California. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com. We’ll be sharing more in upcoming editions of the newsletter.

Tell us

After a rainy winter, spring has arrived in California. Tell us your favorite part of the season, whether it’s road trips, festivals, sunny afternoons or wildflower sightings.

Email us at CAToday@nytimes.com, and please include your name and the city where you live.