A balloon and 3 U.F.O.s

There is still a lot we don’t know about the Chinese spy balloon and the three other objects the U.S. military shot out of the sky in recent days.

U.S. officials have not explained what kind of information the spy balloon was trying to obtain. They have revealed little about the other objects, though they did acknowledge yesterday that the three objects were not sending out communication signals. But we have yet to learn what those objects were or what they were for.

China’s role is another unanswered question. The U.S. has drawn a clear link between China and the spy balloon, though not with the other three objects. It’s not clear whether the balloon was a sign that China is getting more aggressive, or if the U.S. is simply now detecting a kind of surveillance China has been doing for a long time.

The lack of answers has prompted much speculation. Some of it is silly, including jokes about aliens and U.F.O.s. Much of it is serious, about a potential second Cold War, this time between the U.S. and China.

Today’s newsletter will break through the speculation and memes to explain what we know, and don’t, about these flying objects and the implications of escalating tensions between the world’s two biggest powers.

What we know

On three straight days starting Friday, the U.S. detected and shot down unidentified flying objects — first around Alaska, then over Canada and lastly over Lake Huron. They were low enough to pose a threat to civilian aircraft, John Kirby, a White House spokesman, said yesterday. (Here’s a timeline of the events.)

None made it as far into the U.S. as the earlier Chinese spy balloon, which drifted across the continental U.S. before the military shot it down on Feb. 4 near the coast of South Carolina.

China continues to insist that the balloon was a civilian weather research airship that was blown off course. U.S. officials have released more details about what they say is a Chinese spy program that has sent high-altitude balloons over more than 40 countries for years.

What we don’t know

There is still a lot that we don’t know about the three most recent objects: What were they? Where did they come from? What were they for? Those basic questions have prompted others:

Is the U.S. now finding objects that have been there all along? Maybe. “One of the reasons that we think we’re seeing more is because we’re looking for more,” Kirby said. The U.S. has made new investments in its detection capabilities and tweaked existing systems to be more sensitive, partly in response to the Chinese spy balloon. Those systems could be picking up things that have long populated the sky, including more benign objects like airborne trash. (Thousands of balloons are floating above the Earth at any given moment, one expert said.)

Are the objects meant to spy on the U.S.? They could be, but officials have not confirmed or denied that. America’s adversaries, like China or Russia, could also be testing what they can fly over the U.S. without officials’ noticing.

Is it aliens? “There is no indication of aliens or extraterrestrial activity with these recent takedowns,” the White House press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, said yesterday.

Is the U.S. using similar surveillance technology over China? American officials denied China’s allegations that the U.S. is flying high-altitude balloons over Chinese airspace. That response leaves open the possibility that the U.S. is using balloons over disputed territory or that it surveils China through other means, such as planes and satellites, as it has in the past.

The broader context

Relations between the U.S. and China had deteriorated in recent years as the Trump and Biden administrations took a more aggressive tone than previous administrations and imposed trade restrictions. But officials from both countries had recently started to work to mend ties.

The balloon episode could hurt those efforts. “As the U.S. has made clear it’s not going to just let this fade, the Chinese response has gotten more aggressive,” said my colleague Vivian Wang, who covers China.

In that sense, the flying objects are a case study for how tensions between the U.S. and China can rapidly escalate. Many analysts worry that existing strains between the two countries, like those over the status of Taiwan and China’s territorial claims over nearby waters, could quickly transform into a deadly conflict.

“That could be Taiwan. It could be the South China Sea. It could be an unplanned military encounter in the sea or air,” said my colleague Chris Buckley, who also covers China. “As we see with balloons — who predicted a balloon mini-crisis? — the possible permutations are endless.”

There is another side to this, too: the risk of de-escalating too far. For years, some analysts have argued that the U.S. has done too little to contain China. In its response to the balloon, the Biden administration may be trying to show China that the U.S. is taking a more forceful approach than it has in the past.

Commentary

• The U.S. is overreacting to fairly conventional spying, Emma Ashford argues in Foreign Policy. Matthew Kroenig thinks the U.S. was right to respond forcefully.

• The U.S. and China have few offramps for de-escalating a crisis, and the next one could be much harder to defuse, Fareed Zakaria writes in The Washington Post.

• To limit speculation about the other objects the U.S. shot down, President Biden should share what he knows, Michael Brendan Dougherty writes in National Review.

• “After the spy balloon, the U.S. started changing how it looked in the skies,” Julian Barnes, The Times’s national security reporter, said on today’s episode of The Daily.

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