Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina could be women’s tennis ‘big three’ ahead of Miami Open

As the era of the men’s ‘big three’ winds down – or metamorphoses into something slightly different – could there be a ‘big three’ starting to form in women’s tennis?

In 2022, there was clearly one player who was head and shoulders above the rest: Iga Swiatek. Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina look to be catching up.

If Rybakina had her ranking points from winning Wimbledon last year against her name she would be No. 3 in the rankings behind world No. 2 Sabalenka, who with a 17-2 win-loss record is the WTA player of the season so far.

So what does Indian Wells champion Rybakina think about the idea of a Big Three in women’s tennis?

“For now, it’s like this but the season is still long, so we’ll see how it’s going to end.”

Swiatek is still a clear world No. 1 but has come back to the pack a bit, losing four times this year in straight sets and seeing her lead over Sabalenka cut to around 3,000 points. Swiatek hasn’t been as dominant as she was last year and appears to sometimes struggle to counter power players like Rybakina and Sabalenka. But when the tour switches to clay next month, things could swing firmly back in Swiatek’s favour.

For now, it’s more about how Sabalenka and Rybakina have caught up.

Sabalenka said at Indian Wells she feels like a “different player” to last year.

It’s not just her serve, which has been far more reliable following a WTA-leading 428 double faults in 2022, but also the composure she has shown, which was key in winning her first Grand Slam title at the Australian Open after losing in three previous semi-finals.

“I feel a little bit different on the court this year. I feel like I’m a little bit a different player,” she said at Indian Wells.

“Because before, I didn’t have a Slam, and every time I felt so much pressure from myself because I really wanted to get it. Every time something would happen, I would lose really close matches just because I really wanted it. I would miss so many easy shots.

“Right now, it’s given me more belief and understanding what I have to do on those important matches. I’m more calm on court, and I’m able to control my emotions, which help me to stay in the game no matter what. Fight for every point, without losing my mind and without giving easy points to opponents.”

Sabalenka admitted she drifted into “old habits” in the Indian Wells final against Rybakina when she hit 10 double faults in the first set, but even then there was calmness in her response.

“There will be some days when old habits come back and you just have to work through it,” she said afterwards. “Not every match will be going your way and you’ll be serving perfectly. So it’s a reminder that it’s okay to still struggle with something. It’s okay to not play your best and keep fighting and keep using the rest of the weapons. This is another lesson and that’s okay. I have nothing against that. I’ll learn and come back better.”

Firing on serve is key to Sabalenka and Rybakina’s success.

Sabalenka has tallied 131 aces this season, in comparison to 155 from Rybakina. Only Caroline Garcia has more with 170, and the rest of the top five are way behind – Swiatek has 25, world No. 3 Jessica Pegula has 20, and world No. 5 Ons Jabeur has 20 (although she has only played seven matches due to injury). Aside from Garcia, Sabalenka and Rybakina, no other player has passed 100 this year.

Having been ranked outside the top 20 before her Wimbledon win, Rybakina attributes her rise to “organising more or less things around the court”.

“I think I had really good results, but then I was stopped by things we cannot control, either the pandemic or the schedule,” she told the WTA. “There were a lot of things going on. For now, I’m kind of prepared for anything. And we built with my coach the whole team around me: physio, fitness, hitting partner. It’s big work. And I think it was just a matter of time.”

What has stood out with Rybakina and Sabalenka this year is that they have the weapons to hurt Swiatek.

Jabeur and Pegula seemed to be Swiatek’s closest rivals last year but went a combined 0-6 against the world No. 1. Neither has supreme power to hurt Swiatek like Rybakina and Sabalenka do.

That’s not to say Pegula and Jabeur are out of the mix to challenge Swiatek. Pegula had a very successful 2022 and looked set to contend for her first Grand Slam title at the Australian Open. Jabeur should be a threat again on clay and grass if she returns to full health following a minor surgery.

The women’s game has been lacking top-level rivalries for years, arguably since Serena Williams v Venus Williams/Victoria Azarenka/Maria Sharapova (yes, despite the lop-sided head-to-head record). Ashleigh Barty retired before a rivalry with Swiatek could develop, but Swiatek v Rybakina is shaping up as an intriguing clash after Rybakina’s two wins over the world No. 1 in 2023. Rybakina v Sabalenka could also be one to watch this year after Rybakina notched her first win over Sabalenka at the fifth attempt.

For rivalries to develop, though, and for a ‘big three’ to be formed, Rybakina and Sabalenka need to show the same consistency as Swiatek.

This week’s Miami Open will be a test of Rybakina’s consistency and another pointer towards whether there could be a ‘big three’ in women’s tennis.

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