Abu Dhabi ruler projects stability by naming eldest son as crown prince

Sheikh Khaled bin Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan had a hectic agenda in the weeks before he was named Abu Dhabi’s new crown prince.

Among other duties, he hosted Microsoft’s president and the chief executive of IBM, inaugurated a new port district, attended a government leadership retreat and visited the joint operations command of the United Arab Emirates’ defence ministry.

All were evidence of the increasingly prominent role that Sheikh Khaled has taken in recent years, one that fuelled chatter that his father, UAE president and Abu Dhabi ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, was grooming his eldest son to be heir apparent.

But such is the intrigue around opaque Gulf palace politics that until his appointment was announced on Wednesday, speculation was rife about whether Sheikh Khaled, 43, would become crown prince or whether Sheikh Mohammed, known as MBZ, would opt for one of his more experienced brothers, particularly Sheikh Tahnoon, the UAE’s powerful national security adviser.

MBZ, who last year succeeded his late brother, Sheikh Khalifa, will hope the appointment ends talk of potential power struggles within his ruling family and projects stability and continuity in the oil-rich capital and leader of the seven-emirate federation, analysts say.

“[The UAE] is a rising power in the Middle East and if there was any question as to who is taking responsibility for maybe the next 50 years this clears it up,” Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an Emirati professor of politics, said. “Even before his father was president, everybody knew Sheikh Khaled was being given more and more responsibility.”

Sheikh Khaled’s rise through the ranks has stretched across key sectors of the economy, security and energy. A graduate of Georgetown university, he is a deputy national security adviser and chair of the executive committee of state oil company Adnoc. He is also a member of the powerful Supreme Council for Financial and Economic Affairs, and was this month appointed to the board of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia), the $790bn sovereign wealth fund.

He now replaces his father as chair of Abu Dhabi’s executive council, in effect the emirate’s cabinet, of which he has also been a member for several years.

“He’s seen as a serious and sharp individual,” said Taufiq Rahim, a senior fellow at the New America think-tank. “The question will be how soon he will assert more influence in Abu Dhabi’s key institutions.”

MBZ was during his 18 years as crown prince often seen as the chief executive driving Abu Dhabi’s development, to Sheikh Khalifa’s chairman.

After Sheikh Khalifa suffered a stroke in 2014, MBZ became de facto leader, overseeing a more assertive foreign policy that led to interventions in conflicts in Yemen and Libya, as well as a crackdown on dissent and the use of Abu Dhabi’s oil riches to raise its profile overseas.

The 62-year-old leader is expected to rule for years to come. But the appointment of the crown prince, as well as other changes to top posts, reflected a devolving of some power as he focused on the presidency, according to people familiar with the matter.

“One thing you can draw from some of the recent announcements — this is essentially the end of one transition and the beginning of another,” said a person close to Abu Dhabi’s leadership.

Key among those who have been elevated are some of MBZ’s full brothers, known collectively as the “Bani Fatima six”, in reference to their mother.

For the first time, Abu Dhabi has two deputy rulers after MBZ on Wednesday named Sheikh Tahnoon and Sheikh Hazza, another full brother, to the newly created positions. Some believe they will be ceremonial posts, others say it is a sign of MBZ spreading leadership duties.

In a surprise move, MBZ also appointed another full brother, Sheikh Mansour, who has served as the UAE’s deputy prime minister and owns Manchester City football club, as a vice-president of the Gulf state.

That means he will work alongside his father-in-law, Dubai’s ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, who is also a vice-president and prime minister of the UAE.

Analysts say the creation of a second vice-president suggests a further consolidation of Abu Dhabi’s dominance in the federation. But it could also ease some of the federal burdens on Dubai’s septuagenarian leader.

Other high profile changes this month have included Sheikh Tahnoon taking over as chair of Adia, which further expanded his muscular portfolio. He already chairs ADQ, another state investment fund, First Abu Dhabi Bank, the nation’s largest lender, and International Holding Company, a conglomerate that has risen from obscurity to boast a market capitalisation of about $236bn.

Sheikh Mansour has also replaced MBZ as chair of Mubadala, another of Abu Dhabi’s investment vehicles, which manages assets of about $284bn.

Some view the string of changes as part of a balancing act MBZ has had to play within the ruling family.

“He’s balancing between empowering his son as crown prince, but also giving additional responsibilities to his brothers who may have seen themselves as part of the succession plan,” said Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.

Others believe MBZ is spreading responsibility among trusted lieutenants as the UAE’s ambitions grow. David Roberts, a Gulf expert at King’s College London, called the raft of changes a “nice housekeeping exercise”.

“The long term history of [succession in Gulf monarchies] has been incredibly tricky, so there always needs to be a process of clarity about who goes where,” Roberts said.

“The UAE is evolving in so many ways, economically and politically, that evolving its governance structure seems quite logical for a state that has grown exponentially in recent years.”