Giro d’Italia 2023 preview: Can anyone gatecrash the Remco Evenepoel v Primoz Roglic fight for pink?

In March, Primoz Roglic (Jumbo-Visma) came out on top in his duel against Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep) in the Volta a Catalunya – six months after the Belgian ended the Slovenian’s three-year reign in red at La Vuelta.

In what was widely touted as a dress rehearsal for this year’s Giro d’Italia, just six seconds separated the two riders atop the Catalunya general classification, with both Roglic and Evenepoel winning two stages apiece and the former taking the overall crown by virtue of his six-second winning margin over the line on the Stage 5 summit finish at Lo Port.

This May in Italy there will be seven summit finishes, some of which – Monte Bondone and Tre Cime di Lavaredo, for instance – are far tougher than the ascent of Lo Port; far tougher, indeed, than any of the summit showdowns in last year’s Vuelta, where Evenepoel came of age and became a maiden Grand Tour winner.

If either Roglic or Evenepoel put a foot wrong in a race that is expected to be hampered by persistent rain throughout the opening week, then a whole cluster of contenders – including British duo Geraint Thomas and Tao Geoghegan Hart, the 2020 champion – will be waiting in the wings to spring a surprise.

Geoghegan Hart, indeed, will be the only former winner to feature on the start list when the 106th edition of the La Corsa Rosa gets under way in Fossacesia with an 18.4km individual time trial on Saturday, with none of last year’s podium – Jai Hindley, Richard Carapaz and Mikel Landa – featuring in 2023.

Without further ado, let us take a closer look at all the main players and outsiders targeting pink in this Giro…

The runaway favourites: Remco Evenepoel, Primoz Roglic

It’s almost impossible to separate the two favourites for pink. If Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep) proved his Grand Tour credentials with a convincing debut win in La Vuelta last year, he did so in the absence of Primoz Roglic (Jumbo-Visma) after the Slovenian crashed out in the final week – having already arrived in Spain on the back foot following his hefty fall in the Tour.

After going under the knife to resolve a shoulder issue in the winter, a fully fit Roglic has been in searing form this spring, winning both of the races he has entered – Catalunya and Tirreno-Adriatico. Although he lost out to the Slovenian in Catalunya, Evenepoel is not short of form either, having won the UAE Tour and soloed to a second successive Liege-Bastogne-Liege title last month.

A lot will depend on how Rohan Dennis, a late call-up to Jumbo-Visma’s squad, performs alongside Sepp Kuss, Koen Bouwman and eleventh-hour replacement Sam Oomen in the mountains. It certainly looks like quite a lightweight unit for Roglic – although no worse that the options available for Evenepoel on the steep stuff. If anything, it will mean this Giro will be a test of individual strength over team depth.

Although Roglic has won three of the last four Grand Tours that he has completed, he’s also failed to finish three of the last four Grand Tours that he has started. Food for thought ahead of what promises to be an epic duel for the maglia rosa.

The third man: Geraint Thomas

Welsh veteran Geraint Thomas has unfinished business at the Giro after DNFs in his two previous attempts when sent as a leader for Team Sky/Ineos – in 2017 and 2020. If Thomas enters his fifth Giro a little undercooked – having failed to pull up many trees in the Tour Down Under, Catalunya and Tour of the Alps – the 37-year-old has a wealth of experience and knows what it takes to succeed over three weeks.

His third place in last year’s Tour de France – behind relative youngsters Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard – showed that the Ineos Grenadiers veteran is not quite ready to step aside for the new generation. And if he can ride himself into some form – while avoiding the kind of obstacles that have so often caused him to come a cropper – then Thomas has the pedigree and all-round skill set to provide the biggest challenge to the Big Two.

The podium pushers: Aleksandr Vlasov, Joao Almeida

Fourth here in 2021 for Astana, Russia’s Aleksandr Vlasov is still finding his feet at Bora-Hansgrohe but finished fifth in last year’s Tour de France off the back of winning the overall title at Romandie. His form this year has been solid if unspectacular, but his Bora team are the reigning champions and the absence of last year’s winner Jai Hindley will remove any leadership quandaries. Bob Jungels, Lennard Kamna and Patrick Konrad should provide Vlasov with ample support in the mountains.

Portugal’s Joao Almeida (UAE Team Emirates) was on course for another top five finish in the Giro last year before being forced out with Covid. Fourth in his debut after a long stint in pink in 2020 and sixth a year later, the 24-year-old was Roglic’s closest challenger in Tirreno-Adriatico and came third in Catalunya – albeit another two minutes down on runner-up Evenepoel.

What Almeida lacks in explosivity, he makes up in tenacity – and provided he can negotiate any potential leadership clash with Brandon McNulty and Jay Vine, he will push for that third spot on the podium while putting himself in a position to pounce should anything happen to those ahead of him.

The veterans: Damiano Caruso, Rigoberto Uran, Thibaut Pinot

Veterans Damiano Caruso (Bahrain Victorious), Rigoberto Uran (EF Education-EasyPost) and Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ) see the Giro as a far more likely outlet for success than the Tour, which has become more of a closed shop in this era of Pogacar-Vingegaard domination. As such, they can’t be too pleased to see the next two best GC riders – Roglic and Evenepoel – also give the Tour a wide berth.

None of the three is very likely to be involved in the fight for pink but they all have that blend of experience and expertise to push for a high GC finish. Italy’s Caruso came runner-up behind Egan Bernal in 2021, Colombia’s Uran twice finished runner-up in 2013 and 2014, and Pinot was on course for a podium in 2018 before suffering illness on the penultimate day.

In the final year of his career before taking over the family goat business, Pinot will no doubt prioritise the stage win that will complete his Grand Tour grand slam rather than a top 10 that no one will remember. With this in mind, a push for pink is almost inconceivable for a man who always suffers either calamity of a sudden loss of form.

The only former champion: Tao Geoghegan Hart

A younger rider with far better expectations than the old guard over the next three weeks is Tao Geoghegan Hart (Ineos Grenadiers), the surprise 2020 winner ahead of Jai Hindley, who has been enjoying a return to form this year. After two fruitless seasons following his Giro exploits, the flame-haired Londoner won the opening two stages on his way to overall victory in the Tour of the Alps last month – and his form is such that it’s he, rather than team-mate Thomas, who takes the leader’s bib number for Ineos.

Third in Tirreno, Geoghegan Hart has the legs and will be part of arguably the strongest team in the race – marshalled by Italian duo Filippo Ganna and Salvatore Puccio. It’s worth remembering that his overall win in 2020 came after Thomas crashed out in the opening week. Definitely one to watch.

The top 10 dreamers: Carthy, Vine, Sivakov, Arensman, Kuss, Haig, McNulty

Should Thomas and Geoghegan Hart falter, then Ineos Grenadiers also have another promising duo in Pavel Sivakov and Thyman Arensman. Frenchman Sivakov has had rotten luck in Grand Tours of late, failing to finish two of his last four and seeing his performance often derailed by big crashes in the opening week. But the 25-year-old has top-tenned all four of his stage races so far this year and could be an able deputy if called upon.

Dutchman Arensman has been reduced to supporting cameos at Ineos since his move from Team DSM, where he managed to come sixth in last year’s Vuelta after a top 20 in the Giro. The 23-year-old will be there for the experience and to set tempo in the mountains – but like Sivakov he’s a talent in his own right.

The same could be said for Brandon McNulty (UAE Team Emirates), who has never ridden a Grand Tour as a leader before, and who looks to be in Italy to support team-mate Almeida before doing the same for Pogacar in France in July. A super-strong climber on his day, McNulty has a tendency to blow up once in a while – and he may not want to go too deep given a certain Slovenian’s hunger to wrest back control of yellow later this summer.

Another question mark at UAE surrounds the Australian Jay Vine. This will be Tour Down Under winner Vine’s first Grand Tour for UAE since joining from Alpecin-Fenix – and his two summit victories in last year’s Vuelta underlined the ability of the man who made a name for himself on Zwift. Whether he’ll be able to better team-mate Almeida – or even McNulty – remains to be seen. But the 27-year-old showed that he is more than a mountain goat by becoming national TT champion in January, which bodes well for those 73km against the clock.

An American climber even stronger than McNulty – and one with his own team hierarchical issues – is Sepp Kuss (Jumbo-Visma), who makes his first appearance in the Giro for four years. A stage winner in both the Tour and Vuelta, the 28-year-old will look to complete his grand slam this May while supporting Roglic in his quest for pink. But Kuss also finished eighth in the 2021 Vuelta while riding for Roglic, so a high GC finish is not out of the question. And given the Slovenian’s recent DNF track record, perhaps more will be asked of Kuss in the weeks to come.

Since his win on the Angliru and third place in the 2020 Vuelta, Hugh Carthy’s star has waned a little at EF Education-EasyPost. Still only 28, Carthy came ninth last year in the Giro and was runner-up behind compatriot Geoghegan Hart in the Tour of the Alps, so he will be eyeing a potential top five come Rome. He’ll do so in arguably the best kit in the peloton, after EF dropped their colourful limited-edition togs for the Giro.

Finally, Australia’s Jack Haig (Bahrain Victorious) will be targeting stage wins and a top 10 finish – provided he can emerge from the opening week unscathed. The 28-year-old crashed out of three of his last four Grand Tours, although third place in the 2021 Vuelta – albeit seven minutes adrift of Roglic – gave a glimpse of his potential.

The rank outsiders: Dombrowski, Buitrago, Pozzovivo, Dunbar, Mollema

There once was a time when former Baby Giro winner Joe Dombrowski may have dreamed of winning the main event. If that ship hadn’t sailed before he joined Astana-Qazaqstan, then that move has positively scuppered any chances of such ambitions. Can the American better his career best finish of 12th place from the 2019 Giro? Probably not. But he’ll try his best for a stage win after his success in 2021.

Far stronger “outsider” credentials belong to Bahrain Victorious duo Santiago Buitrago and Gino Mader – although a late positive test for Covid has sidelined the Swiss climber, a winner of a stage in his Giro debut in 2021. Since Mader’s fifth in La Vuelta later that year, the pendulum has swung away from the 26-year-old and towards his Colombian team-mate, three years his junior. Buitrago won a stage and finished 12th in his Giro debut last year – and clearly had good legs this year, as evidenced by his third place in Liege-Bastogne-Liege in April.

It looked like Domenico Pozzovivo’s career was over after he struggled to find a team over the winter, but the 40-year-old shacked up at the peloton’s retirement home and now starts his seventeenth Giro of his long career. A surprise eighth last year, Pozzovivo will spearhead Israel-Premier Tech’s bid.

Having left Ineos Grenadiers to explore his own ambitions, this Giro will be a real litmus test for Eddie Dunbar’s Grand Tour credentials. The 26-year-old Irishman only made one Grand Tour appearance in five years at Sky/Ineos, coming a solid 22nd on his Giro debut in 2019. Dunbar hasn’t raced much for Jayco-AlUla this year but came ninth in the Tour de Romandie.

And finally, a leader’s jersey guide would not be complete without a mention of Bauke Mollema. In the absence of Giulio Ciccone, the Dutch veteran will lead Trek-Segafredo team in Italy – but primarily in search of the stage win that will complete his grand slam, rather than any push for pink. After all, Mollema’s last top five finish in a Grand Tour was in the 2019 Giro – and he has since failed to crack the top 20 as his focus shifts to hunting stages.

Who will win pink? Rider star ratings

5 stars: Primoz Roglic, Remco Evenepoel
4 stars: Geraint Thomas
3 stars: Aleksandr Vlasov, Joao Almeida
2 stars: Tao Geoghegan Hart, Damiano Caruso
1 star: Jack Haig, Hugh Carthy, Thibaut Pinot, Jay Vine

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