What a New Surge at the U.S.-Mexico Border Could Mean for California

Things are looking increasingly chaotic at California’s southern border.

An emergency health rule known as Title 42, used since 2020 to swiftly expel people who crossed into the United States illegally, is set to expire at 8:59 p.m. Pacific time today. It’s a major shift that could lead to a spike in migrant arrivals and may inflame political tensions along the country’s 2,000-mile border with Mexico, as my colleagues Miriam Jordan and Michael D. Shear reported this week.

(You can listen to Miriam, who covers immigration for The New York Times, explaining the end of Title 42 on “The Daily.”)

Though no one is entirely certain what will happen after today, the federal government is expecting as many as 13,000 migrants to arrive each day immediately after the measure expires, up from about 6,000 on a typical day, Miriam and Michael reported. Illegal crossings have been at record highs in recent years, and the anticipated surge will further stress an already overextended system for handling them. Last week, President Biden ordered 1,500 troops to assist at the border.

California is, of course, one of the four states that borders Mexico, and the effects of this impending policy change are already straining resources in the state and in neighboring Mexican cities.

Just south of San Diego, roughly 15,000 migrants had gathered in Tijuana as of yesterday, booking hotel rooms, filling shelters to capacity or sleeping outdoors while waiting for Title 42 to expire. Several hundred more asylum-seekers are reaching the city each day, hoping to cross into the U.S. illegally and be allowed to stay, said Enrique Lucero, director of the migration services office for the city of Tijuana.

“People are desperate,” he told me.

Lucero said that Tijuana city officials were prepared to offer medical care, blankets and other supplies to migrants, most of whom come from Mexico, Haiti or Honduras. Officials are considering opening an emergency shelter that can house an additional 800 people, he said.

“We’re ready for that, just in case,” he said.

On the American side, San Diego county and city officials said they were collaborating with federal and state partners to prepare for an influx of people entering California after Title 42 expires.

Mayor Todd Gloria of San Diego expressed frustration about “this cycle of crises that have a profound impact on American cities.”

“I have met directly with Customs and Border Protection in Washington, D.C., and in San Diego to articulate the city’s concern that we simply don’t have the resources to address an influx of migrants, and need significant support to address the looming crisis at the southwestern border,” Gloria said in a statement. “Ultimately, the only real solution is for Congress to pass comprehensive immigration reform.”

Since April 2021, California has helped 350,000 arriving migrants with services and travel assistance, according to Scott Murray, spokesman for the California Department of Social Services.

State officials said this week that they were monitoring and trying to provide assistance to homeless shelters and hospitals in San Diego and elsewhere in California that could become overwhelmed with migrants. The need is expected to exceed the state’s available services, said Brian Ferguson, spokesman for the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services.

Ferguson told me that state officials didn’t have concrete figures for how many migrants were expected to enter California after Title 42 expires, but that “we have heard anecdotally that numbers may be as high as they’ve ever been.”

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And before you go, some good news

In Southern California, everything is growing everywhere all at once, because of the torrent of atmospheric rivers over the winter.

At a food distribution center in Skid Row, magenta bougainvillea is blooming, and so are Indian coral trees, full of fire-colored blossoms, The Los Angeles Times reports. A calla lily even sprouted from a patch of dirt everyone thought had gone barren.

“We used to have all sorts of lovely flowers here, and then they all died off,” Matt Harper, an organizer at the Skid Row distribution center, told the news outlet while looking at the unexpected lily blossom. “But with all these rains, you realize the bulbs are there. They’re just waiting to bloom. Nature will take care of itself.”

Thanks for reading. I’ll be back tomorrow. — Soumya

P.S. Here’s today’s Mini Crossword.

Briana Scalia and Isabella Grullón Paz contributed to California Today. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.

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