Nyck De Vries, Logan Sargeant, Lance Stroll: The Formula 1 drivers under the most pressure, and who could replace them

We have four races left until the 2023 Formula 1 mid-season break. The traditional summer period where teams take a short break and more importantly, take stock of how their seasons have gone so far.

This is normally the time where any major decisions are made, particularly with regards to driving personnel, with most teams having already rolled out (at least) one upgrade to their cars.

And it is not unusual to see driver changes happen at this point. Even though every team has scored points, there are certainly a few drivers who might be looking nervously over their shoulders if not for the summer, then certainly for the winter, let’s take a look at some of them and who might replace them. Stay to the end for a real wildcard.

The mid-season firings

Nyck de Vries – AlphaTauri

This is no surprise. After his stunning last-minute call-up performance with Williams in the 2022 season, De Vries was one of the hot names for last off-season’s driver cycle.

He was given the chance at AlphaTauri next to rising Japanese star Yuki Tsunoda. The idea was clearly for De Vries to either act as a mentor for one of the talented drivers in the Red Bull youth programme, namely Liam Lawson or Ayumu Iwasa if Tsunoda failed, or for him to keep the seat warm for the youngsters for a season by driving his way into a seat at another team and allowing someone else to come in next to Tsunoda.

But it’s all gone a bit wrong. De Vries has no points this season and has pretty much always been out-qualified and out-raced by his team-mate.

Red Bull and Helmut Marko are notoriously short of patience so unless things pick up it seems inevitable that the 28-year-old De Vries will be let go.

Possible replacements: Daniel Ricciardo, Liam Lawson, Ayumu Iwasa

If Red Bull do make a change this is going to come from within the family. So there’s two avenues here. Either they give one of Lawson or Iwasa a chance to see how they fare against Tsunoda. Or they give Ricciardo a ride for half a season to see whether he still has it and his McLaren spell was simply a case of wrong place, wrong time.

Logan Sargeant – Williams

It feels harder with Sargeant, six years De Vries’ junior, but given what we’ve seen out of fellow rookie Oscar Piastri, as well as his team-mate Alex Albon it does feel as if Sargeant is perhaps a beat behind.

Perhaps when he gets the same upgrades to his car that Albon’s had in Canada we might see something but if we don’t then a change feels imminent.

Possible replacements: Mick Schumacher, Felipe Drugovich, Alex Palou, Colton Herta, Pato O’Ward

So for this there are probably a couple options for Williams. They can see whether Schumacher has learnt anything from his spell on the sidelines and whether he can be a long-term option for them.

They could also try out one of the many IndyCar drivers who have been talking about wanting to have a chance in Formula 1 which would allow them to not lose their inroads into the American market.

Given they have no reserve driver themselves, and if Mercedes don’t allow them to use Schumacher, they could look to another team’s reserve driver. This is where the likes of Drugovic or Palou might come in. Though you would have to hope there would be a realistic chance for Williams to sign them long-term given the performances of Albon might make him a target for other teams.

Fighting for next season’s seat

Sergio Perez – Red Bull

Let’s be clear here. There is practically no chance that Red Bull remove Perez mid-season. They are topping the constructor table and Max Verstappen is cantering towards another world title.

But Perez’s form has to be a bit of a concern these past few races. After securing two wins and two P2s in his first five races the last three races have seen him go 16th, 4th and 6th.

Red Bull can afford those slips because they are still so far ahead but you know they will be looking at options if this form continues and their rivals’ pace picks up. This ties into what happens at AlphaTauri. If they put Ricciardo in the AlphaTauri for the second-half of the season and he looks quick, why wouldn’t you bring him back to partner Verstappen next season?

Possible replacements: Daniel Ricciardo, Yuki Tsunoda, Liam Lawson, Ayumu Iwasa, Alex Albon

The obvious name here is Ricciardo. He’s back in the Red Bull system and seems far more at peace with where he is in his career than he was when he left Red Bull to go to Renault. Ricciardo and Verstappen get along like a house on fire, the Australian is a marketing dream and if he can show (either in testing or with AlphaTauri) that he still has the pace he seems the logical choice.

It seems less logical that Red Bull will think that any of Tsunoda, Lawson or Iawsa will be ready to make the move into the senior team this off-season, although a strong second-half of the season from Tsunoda may change that.

Keep an eye on Albon though. He obviously has history with the team and he is starting to put in some impressive performances in the Williams. He is a very talented driver and might be a surprise choice for Red Bull if they move on from Perez.

Father’s dilemma

Lance Stroll – Aston Martin

Pay Drivers is not a new concept in Formula 1, it’s an expensive sport and a lot of the time the 20 drivers in the grid are not necessarily the 20 best drivers (although it’s often pretty close).

However, even considering that, the Stroll situation is unique. Given that Stroll’s father Lawrence owns Aston Martin, it has long been assumed that the younger Stroll has a seat for life.

But this season is proving to be a real test of that theory. Stroll is currently a whopping eighty points behind team-mate Fernando Alonso. The two-time world champion has proven to be a considerable step-up over Stroll’s previous team-mates and the young Canadian is being seriously shown up at times.

The plan seems to have been to keep Alonso around for a few years and then in 2026, when Aston Martin will partner with Honda in the new rules era, he would either be able to properly challenge for a world title or he would step aside and allow the team to make an aggressive push at a younger driver like Tsunoda or Charles Leclerc.

A mid-season change looks highly unlikely but if we get to the end of the season and the gap has grown to 150, or even 200 points, can Stroll justify keeping his son in situ?

Possible replacements: Charles Leclerc, Yuki Tsunoda, Felipe Drugovich, Lewis Hamilton, Lando Norris

You would imagine that if Stroll is dispensing with Lance that means that he feels as if he can go after one of the best drivers on the grid. Barring a dramatic step forward that probably doesn’t mean Tsunoda or Drugovich despite the latter’s impressive showing in F2.

No, that means he will go big. That means throwing a lot of money at either a multiple world champion in Hamilton to bring back the team-mate pairing we all desperately need in our lives, or he goes after one of the apparent champions in waiting who have been badly let down by their teams. Both Leclerc and Norris could be on the phone to their lawyers this winter to examine get-out options and if they are available Aston may have to pounce.

The shocking wildcard

Guenther Steiner – Haas

Yes, a team principal. We thought about Carlos Sainz or Valtteri Bottas here but it didn’t feel as if either of those were even realistic. With Sainz it seems that he will stick around one way or another next season and although Bottas has been a bit up and down this season, you would think that Sauber will greatly value his experience and know-how. If a change is coming there you would think it might be 2025 or 2026 for the new regulations.

So we’ve gone for Steiner, arguably the most popular man in Formula 1 right now thanks to ‘Drive to Survive’.

With reliability better than ever and the “Big Three” becoming a “Big Four” this season points are harder to come by than ever plus it does feel as if owner Gene Haas has a soft spot for Steiner and would be loath to part from him. And you really can’t discount the brand visibility that Steiner brings. But if they go scoreless in the next few races and can’t seem to figure out a way to even get close? Surely there will at least be a discussion.

Replacements are hard to figure out, you never know who is actually available and who might be looking for a way out as there simply isn’t as much coverage as there is with drivers.

We also strongly considered Zak Brown here but given his incredible marketing and sponsorship pull that seems unlikely, for now.