Carlos Alcaraz: Is world No. 1 biggest threat to Novak Djokovic’s Wimbledon hopes with ‘underrated’ weapon?

If Wimbledon was once ruled by Roger Federer, nowadays it is very much Novak Djokovic’s domain.

Djokovic has won the last four editions of Wimbledon and hasn’t lost a match on the grass courts of SW19 since 2017. If he lifts the trophy again this summer he will equal Federer’s record of eight titles, move level with Margaret Court at the top of the all-time Grand Slam standings on 24, and will also complete three quarters of the 2023 Calendar Slam.

Beating Djokovic looks a tall order, especially taking into account he has won more main-draw matches at Wimbledon (86) than the rest of the current ATP top 20 combined (85).

So who could stop Djokovic in his quest to make more history?

But one other player has put themselves forward over the last week.

Carlos Alcaraz had only played six tour-level matches on grass before this summer and had said ahead of Queen’s that his chances of Wimbledon success were “complicated”.

He spoke encouragingly during the tournament about his gameplan on grass – “go to the net and play more aggressive all the time” – and following victory over Alex de Minaur in the final said about trying “to hit big shots all the time”.

Alcaraz has the weapons to win on grass. The movement might still need some work, but a strong serve, attacking attitude, and ability to flash winners past opponents counts for plenty.

Another 20-year-old Spaniard certainly had some of those attributes when he made the final at Wimbledon in 2006. Rafael Nadal hadn’t made it past the third round on two previous appearances but was hugely impressive third time out as he won five of six matches in straight sets before losing to Roger Federer in the final.

Nadal’s best results beforehand had been on clay, but his deep top-spin groundstrokes could still penetrate on grass and his lefty serve was tricky to return.

Alcaraz’s serve could be key to his success at Wimbledon.

Andre Agassi’s former coach Brad Gilbert said earlier this year that Alcaraz’s serve has “kick like a mule” and was an underrated part of his game. De Minaur was also of that opinion after the Queen’s final, in which he didn’t break Alcaraz once.

“I think that part of his game is underrated,” said De Minaur. “But I think today he showed in the important points he had a massive serve, and at times I put myself in that position and you can only say ‘too good’.

“I think today in big points he was able to come up with big first serves and it got him out of trouble.”

Alcaraz ranks eighth on the ATP Tour for percentage of service games won in 2023 – 85.19 per cent. He is also top for percentage of return games won – 36.74 per cent.

Djokovic’s last two defeats at Wimbledon have both been against big servers – Tomas Berdych in 2017 and Sam Querrey the previous year.

Last summer Kyrgios played some of the best tennis of his career as he powered his way to the Wimbledon final, where he lost to Djokovic in four sets. With a booming serve and thumping groundstrokes his game is tailor-made for grass. He also has a nice touch around the net and overall looks comfortable playing on the surface.

If Wimbledon does come too soon for Kyrgios then Taylor Fritz might be another leading challenger.

Fritz has the weapons to excel on grass, as he showed in making the Wimbledon quarter-finals last year, when he probably should have beaten an injured Rafael Nadal, and winning twice in Eastbourne in the last four years. He’s won 79.34 per cent of first-serve points this year, which is second only to Hubert Hurkacz. Fritz is also behind only Hurkacz for aces in 2023 (411 vs 561).

Medvedev beat Djokovic in their last meeting in Dubai earlier this year and in 2022 showed some encouraging signs on grass. Rune has the skills to be a threat while Tiafoe broke into the top 10 for the first time after lifting the title in Stuttgart and has strong weapons. Sinner is still yet to make his big breakthrough but led Djokovic by two sets to love at Wimbledon a year ago and was playing very well before going down in five.

In the end, though, as it has been at many Grand Slams, the question is ‘who can beat Djokovic over five sets’? Since the start of 2021 only two players – Medvedev and Nadal – have done so. It will take a huge performance to do so again at Wimbledon.