Third tropical disturbance pops up as Atlantic system shows potential to become Bonnie

The Atlantic hurricane season is picking up speed as the National Hurricane Center is tracking not one but three disturbances across the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.

The tropical disturbance producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean strengthened into Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 on Monday and will likely become Tropical Storm Bonnie. 

As of the NHC’s Monday night’s forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 is currently located about 590 miles east of Trinidad.

The system is now expected to cross the southernmost Caribbean islands near or over Trinidad and Tobago late tomorrow or early Wednesday. On the current track, it would reach the islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao late Wednesday into early Thursday.

The system is on a very unusual southern track. It’s extremely rare for a tropical system to affect Trinidad, Tobago, Grenada, and the surrounding islands in June, not to mention the ABC islands. The northern coast of Venezuela, including the offshore islands, will also be impacted if the system stays on this track.

The gustiest winds will be on the storm’s right side since it’s moving quickly east to west. This means that mountainous islands north of the storm track will get the strongest winds and heaviest rain, regardless of how well organized the circulation becomes.

Everybody in the southeastern Caribbean needs to stay informed.

An intense nose of high-pressure extending across the Atlantic and into the Gulf will keep the storm well to the south. In fact, there’s some question about whether it will track just offshore of Venezuela and Colombia or if the South American landmass will disrupt the system as it goes by.

By late week, the computer forecast models show the system impacting Central America, possibly as a hurricane.

System in Gulf stays disorganized

Meanwhile, in the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center is noting a persistent-but-disorganized area of disturbed weather along the northern Gulf coast known as Tropical Disturbance No. 1. 

The system is moving west-southwestward at about 10 mph toward the northwest Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to approach the coasts of south Texas and northeast Mexico over the next few days.

As a cold front pushes in from the north, the consensus of the computer forecast models is that the broad disturbance will drift toward the south Texas coast. It doesn’t appear to get very strong, but there’s a slight chance it could organize into at least a tropical depression over the next couple of days.

This disturbance, combined with an approaching cold front, will produce an extended period of rainy weather along the entire northern Gulf coast this week.

NHC tracking a third tropical disturbance

Behind the first Atlantic system, there’s also Tropical Disturbance No. 2. This system doesn’t show any signs of organization and will likely take a more northerly track toward the Caribbean. That means it will plow into dry air and hostile upper winds. 

The NHC gives it a 20% chance of developing before reaching the northeastern Caribbean islands in 5 days.