Trump lags behind in Iowa, ahead in national polls

Former President Donald Trump would win the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses if they were held today, a new poll shows — but his numbers in the Hawkeye State lag behind his nationwide support.

The New York Times/Siena College survey released Friday found only 44% of likely GOP caucus attendees support the 77-year-old Trump. The same poll measured Trump’s support at 54% among likely Republican primary voters nationwide.

Nearly half (47%) of Iowa Trump supporters also said they were willing to consider other Republican presidential candidates, while nearly two-thirds (65%) of the non-Trump-supporting cohort told the survey that they were not considering backing the former president at all.

The poll was taken before special counsel Jack Smith indicted Trump on four federal charges in connection with his attempt to overturn his loss to Joe Biden in the 2020 election. More than three-quarters of respondents (76%) said Trump was merely “exercising his right to contest the election result,” while only 19% agreed that the former president “went so far that he threatened American democracy.”

Smith previously hit the 45th president with 40 counts in connection with his hoarding of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Fla.

Trump’s poll numbers dipped six percentage points in the aftermath of the classified documents charges, whereas an earlier indictment in Manhattan for business fraud triggered a surge in voters support for the former president.

Following Trump in the NYT/Siena College Iowa poll were Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (20%), Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) (9%), entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (5%), former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley (4%) and former Vice President Mike Pence (3%).

In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Trump led DeSantis by 55% to 39% in Iowa, but the poll showed some positive signs for the Florida governor.

DeSantis had the highest favorability rating of anyone in the Republican field in both raw (77%) and net terms (+59). Trump had the second-highest raw favorability rating (72%), but the third-highest net rating (+46) behind Scott (70% approval, +58 net rating)

Iowa voters also said that compared with Trump, DeSantis was more “moral” (57% to 30%) and “likable” (52% to 38%).

However, those voters found the former president was more likely than the Florida governor to be “able to beat Joe Biden” (49% to 40%), a “strong leader” (62% to 31%), “gets things done” (65% to 25%) and “fun” (55% to 19%).

DeSantis also struggled head-to-head against Trump among two of the GOP’s key constituencies, voters 65 and older (52% to 11%) and non-college-educated whites (55% to 17%).

The former president also swamped DeSantis among self-described “very conservative” caucus-goers (55% to 19%) and among white evangelicals (50% to 20%).

In May, DeSantis kicked off his presidential campaign in Iowa with $100 million in funding from his super PAC, Never Back Down, to hire canvassers to knock doors in all 99 counties.

In contrast to DeSantis, the poll should raise alarms among the Pence campaign.

The former vice president has the second-lowest raw favorability rating among Iowa Republicans of any candidate (46%) and is one of two with a negative net favorability (-4). Only former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (20% favorability, -46 net rating) fared worse.

Pence is also underwater with white evangelical voters, with 48% having a favorable opinion and 49% having an unfavorable opinion.

The New York Times/Siena Poll was conducted July 28-Aug. 1 and surveyed 432 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 5.9 percentage points.