Trump has 23-point lead over DeSantis in first test of GOP caucus field: poll

Former President Donald Trump holds an overwhelming lead of more than 2-to-1 over his nearest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, in the 2024 presidential race among likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers, according to a new poll.

Trump is the first choice of 42% of the likely caucusgoers out of 14 GOP candidates, while 19% picked DeSantis with about five months to Caucus Day, the first 2024 NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll found.

They’re followed by Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, at 9%; former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence, both at 6%; former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 5%; and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 4%.

But the poll results also show DeSantis has a lane in Iowa, where his total “footprint” is 2 percentage points behind Trump: 61% to 63%, the Des Moines Register pointed out.

The footprint is measured by adding together those who say a candidate is their first choice, those who say the candidate is their second choice and those who are actively considering supporting the candidate.

The poll comes as the former president faces the fallout of a fourth criminal indictment and a group of other top contenders prepares for a GOP debate in Milwaukee on Wednesday. Trump said he would not attend the event.

The 45^th president enjoys the continued support among self-identified Republicans and evangelical Christians, as well as by the two-thirds of likely caucusgoers who don’t believe he has committed serious crimes, NBC News reported.

The poll finds that his commanding lead over DeSantis increased in the days immediately after he was hit with charges in Fulton County, Georgia, over attempts to overturn the 2020 election results in that state.

“I think [Trump] delivered on all of his promises. I think he’s a problem solver. And I think that’s what he what he did, and I think he did a great job of it,” Republican poll respondent Bob Siddens, 70, of Iowa, told the news outlet.

But the poll also indicates that large numbers of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers are strongly considering DeSantis and Scott, suggesting a potential opening for those White House hopefuls and possibly others.

A majority of GOP caucusgoers in Iowa — 52% — say they have not made up their minds and that they could be persuaded to support another candidate – compared with 40% who say their minds are made up.

“I’ve been doing this for a long time. We have had candidates who started low and ended up winning,” said Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer, who has been conducting the survey over the last 30 years.

“Anyone can come to Iowa and win. Anybody,” she added. “The caucus is designed for people to keep an open mind.”

At the same time, Trump’s supporters are firmly behind him.

Two-thirds of caucusgoers who support him as their first-choice candidate say their minds are made up, compared with just a third who say the same of their backing for DeSantis, according to the findings.

The poll also found that 65% of likely GOP caucusgoers don’t think Trump has committed serious crimes, while 26% believe he has committed serious crimes and an additional 9% said they didn’t know.

“I think well over 90% of it — if not 100% of it — is all politically motivated,” said poll respondent Howard Andrews, 72, whose first choice is DeSantis and second is Scott, NBC News reported.

In fact, Trump’s lead over DeSantis grew after his most recent indictment, which took place on Aug. 14.

He led the Florida governor by 18 percentage points — 38% to 20% — during poll interviews from Aug. 13-14, but his margin jumpoed to 25 points — 43% to 18% — in interviews after the indictment.

The NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of 406 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Aug. 13-17. It has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.