FirstFT: Global dealmaking at lowest point since 2013

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Global dealmaking is languishing at a 10-year low as high interest rates chill private equity activity and a more hostile antitrust environment deters companies from pursuing rivals.

At $2tn, the value of merger and acquisition deals announced in the first nine months of the year was the lowest since 2013 and down 28 per cent in the same period in 2022, data from the London Stock Exchange Group shows.

The fall in big deals worth $10bn or more has been particularly stark, dropping 42 per cent over the first nine months of the year compared with the same period last year.

A slow start to the year was capped with the worst third quarter since 2012 with $616mn of deals. But here’s why there are hopes of a revival in the market.

Here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:

• Economic data: Germany has its preliminary consumer price index, which is expected to show a fall in inflation this month. The US has final gross domestic product figures for the second quarter.

• ECB: The European Central Bank publishes its economic bulletin, which will have projections on inflation, growth, public finances and external trade.

• Results: Dublin-based consultancy Accenture, tool rental company HSS Hire and sportswear group Nike report.

Join us at FT Professional’s first webinar at 1pm BST today. Journalists and industry leaders will look back on how predictions for 2023 have unfolded and discuss looming global challenges. Sign up here.

Five more top stories

1. The Federal Reserve’s message that interest rates will stay higher for longer has hit US stocks and government bonds, which are on course for their worst month of the year. Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 stock index has fallen more than 5 per cent this month, dragging it towards its first quarterly loss in 12 months. Here’s what analysts are saying.

2. Exclusive: UBS is seeking a last-minute deal with Mozambique in the $2bn “tuna bonds” scandal to avoid a bruising 13-week trial at London’s High Court. The African nation is pursuing about $1.5bn in damages in the case against Credit Suisse, which UBS acquired six months ago. People briefed on the discussions said the bank was pushing for a settlement.

3. Exclusive: Nord Security has raised $100mn in a funding round led by US buyout group Warburg Pincus, nearly doubling its valuation in a year to $3bn. The maker of a leading virtual private network said the money would allow it to expand its product range and buy other companies. Here are more details on the Lithuanian technology group.

4. Exclusive: The Adani Group has changed the auditor of its main UK subsidiaries to a little-known London-based firm with four partners called Ferguson Maidment & Co, taking over from Crowe UK, which resigned in March after Hindenburg Research released its report. The US short seller had previously flagged Adani’s use of a “tiny firm” in India. Here’s what we know about the latest audit shake-up in Gautam Adani’s business empire.

5. The European Central Bank is experimenting with generative artificial intelligence across its operations to speed up basic activities such as drafting briefings, summarising banking data, writing software code and translating documents. The central bank will announce the move today. Here’s more on what the ECB’s “infinity team” has been up to.

• More AI: Meta is launching AI-driven persona chatbots across Instagram, Facebook and WhatsApp, the US tech giant announced at its developer conference yesterday.

The Big Read

Once the world’s second-busiest airport, London’s Heathrow has dropped to eighth place, a sobering demotion for a country that co-developed the supersonic Concorde jet. While a recent boom in flights has injected new life, it has also revived one of Britain’s thorniest public debates: how best to increase airport capacity — or if it should be increased at all at a time of rising anxiety over the industry’s environmental impact.

We’re also reading and watching . . . 

• EV failure: The EU’s proposed anti-subsidy duties against China aren’t a cure so much as a symptom of problems with the car industry and complacent governments, writes Alan Beattie.

• Argentine economy: Economists warn the country may enter a period of hyperinflation following election giveaways and a pledge to dollarise the economy.

• 🎬 Chips war: Our latest FT Film explores China’s rise as a technological superpower, and whether the US can regain the upper hand in the race for semiconductor supremacy.

Chart of the day

Soaring sales of its obesity treatment have propelled Novo Nordisk to become Europe’s most valuable company and single-handedly stopped Denmark from falling into recession. The situation has sparked comparisons to its Nordic counterpart Finland, whose over-reliance on Nokia led to a lost decade when the phonemaker’s fortunes turned.

Take a break from the news 

Who do you know who doesn’t use email? With more than 4.3bn users globally and growing, the medium has endured despite high-profile mishaps and the rise of social media, writes Sarah Ebner, head of newsletters at the Financial Times. Here’s why we just can’t quit email.

Speaking of emails, thank you for reading this one. Before you go, tell us what you think of FirstFT at firstft@ft.com — Tee

Additional contributions from Benjamin Wilhelm and Gordon Smith