The Lex Newsletter: how many jobs is too many?

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Dear reader, 

There is a curious trend in the US tech sector for some software engineers to claim to be simultaneously working two or more full-time jobs. On social media, they share tips on how to dupe bosses and compare the work that can be completed most quickly. The popular Reddit “Overemployed” community refers to “J1” and “J2” (job one and job two) when discussing salaries. It all sounds exhausting. 

Whatever happened to working less and freeing up more time for fun? After writing The 4-Hour Work Week, Andrew Barnes was shortlisted for the business book awards with his more realistic The 4 Day Week. As ever, Lex is sceptical. 

Experiments by companies that have allowed employees to cram their work into four days have largely focused on marketing, advertising and professional services. Some have been successful. 

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But those in manufacturing and customer-facing jobs find it difficult to shift working hours around at will. Plus, it turns out that there was a fudge by some UK companies involved in four-day-a-week experiments. Instead of cutting an entire day, they released employees from a few hours of work. 

Breaking away from the status quo is difficult. In the US, however, some employees have found a way around full-time work by effectively taking Fridays off, albeit without company approval. It sounds more relaxing than trying to juggle two employers. 

Joining the banned wagon

In the UK, the Financial Conduct Authority can put a stop to employment altogether. One of the FCA’s most serious penalties is to ban someone from working in financial services. It is a rare move. This week, former Barclays boss Jes Staley was barred from top City roles.

Staley resigned almost a year ago following an investigation into his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. It is the right move, though, as Lex points out, he was unlikely to have been offered a big job anyway.

Middle East conflict 

Hamas’s brutal attack on Israel last Saturday, which killed more than 1,000 people, has led Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to declare war. It is an impossible situation that some worry will turn into a regional conflict. Look at the price of crude oil, however, and it appears that the market at least believes this will not be the case. On Monday, the price rose just 3 per cent. Lex says this is in part due to hopes that the conflict will not draw in neighbouring countries such as Iran. 

High oil prices have left companies such as Exxon with cash to throw around. This week, it confirmed that it would buy Pioneer Natural Resources, a US-listed shale group, in a $64.5bn all-share purchase. Lex took the opportunity to consider what the deal says about future exploration. Pioneer has opted to cut capital spending and hand out buybacks and dividends to investors. The deal does not point to an increase in exploration.

Free speech, expensive mistakes 

Look for information about the attack on Israel on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) and you will probably come away confused. Since Elon Musk bought the company, he has abandoned some of its former content moderation tools. You may have also noticed that links to news articles do not include headlines now, just photos. The stream of false content has alarmed EU officials, leading to a terse exchange between EU commissioner Thierry Breton and Musk. 

But when did unhappy authorities ever change Musk’s behaviour? The US Securities and Exchange Commission certainly isn’t having much luck compelling Musk to testify in a probe about his Twitter stock purchases. 

The SEC is looking into Musk’s purchase of shares before his $44bn buyout. He filed the requisite paperwork 20 days after his stake exceeded 5 per cent. The limit is 10 days. Poor timekeeping may not be Musk’s priority, but Lex is with the SEC. Markets are most efficient when information is divulged in proper order. 

Elsewhere in tech, Alphabet is in court defending Google’s position as the world’s most popular search engine. The US Department of Justice is examining the payments it makes in order to be the default option on devices such as iPhones. Estimates range from a few billion each year to $20bn. Expensive but worth it. These payments have helped to make Google the world’s most popular search engine. The companies that receive the payments, such as Apple, are going to have a hard time replacing what is essentially costless revenue if Alphabet loses the case.

China cracked

About a third of UK household wealth is wrapped up in property. In China, the percentage is closer to 80 per cent. The nation’s property crisis is going to weigh heavily on the economy. 

This week, China’s largest private property developer, Country Garden, confirmed that it could not pay an upcoming $60mn debt payment and warned that it was headed towards a default. Country Garden was once seen as a safe bet on China’s property sector. Its projects stretch across the country. 

Country Garden projects in China, by province

Before the crisis, China’s lenders were handing out loans to households hand over fist, improving their earnings in the process. Now, rising bad loans from developers are hitting hard. So are mortgage boycotts by homeowners. Hopes that investment by the country’s sovereign wealth fund is a sign of support should be tempered by concern about the signals it sends. The wealth fund invested in banks ahead of the 2008 financial crisis too. 

Weighed down 

If weight-loss drugs proliferate, what happens to the packaged food companies that make a fortune from munchies? The waiting list for drugs such as Wegovy is long. Walmart says it is already seeing a dip in snack demand. Consumer food groups may lose the high stock-price-to-earnings multiples they have enjoyed for years. 

Could that include the beloved UK-listed baked goods chain Greggs? Growth forecasts are high but the share price has flagged. High sales are needed to cover the cost of planned expansion. Right now, annual free cash flow of £100mn is forecast until the end of 2026. Net debt is low. But there is a risk that appetite-suppressing medication will drag on future demand. Have we reached peak sausage roll? 

This is something that pharmacy operators need to consider too. So-called front-end sales of products such as make-up and snacks are already being chipped away by online rivals. Walgreens Boots Alliance needs new ideas for growth. After cutting full-year earnings guidance, Lex thinks the US drugstore operator may revive plans to sell UK business Boots. It could help the US company refocus on healthcare, such as weight-loss drugs.

Other stuff I liked this week

David Grossman, winner of the Man Booker International Prize in 2017, wrote an article in the Financial Times this week about the sense of betrayal felt by Israelis towards their own government.

The idea of white-collar workers taking Friday as an unofficial day off came from this great story by Taylor Nicole Rogers. The hiking trails and beaches around the Bay Area are certainly full on Fridays. 

Paris Fashion Week goers reported seeing bedbugs on the Metro this year. The New York Times does a nice job of explaining the horror of a potential infestation. 

Enjoy your weekend, 

Elaine Moore
Deputy head of Lex 

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