Blazin’ Saddles: The dream scenario for week two of the Tour – Ineos and Jumbo take fight to Tadej Pogacar

Between them, the riders in yellow and green going into Monday’s rest day have won 44 percent of the nine stages on offer so far – a stat that would have been 78 percent had Wout van Aert not finished bridesmaid on three successive occasions on Danish soil at the start of this Tour.

The Belgian and his Slovenian counterpart, the two-time defending champion Tadej Pogacar, have been the stand-out performers of the opening phase of the Tour. But we’re about to start a new phase of the race, with Van Aert, his green jersey now secure, morphing into super-domestique mode in support of his Jumbo-Visma teammate Jonas Vingegaard’s GC bid.

Vingegaard has emerged from the first phase of this race as a genuine threat to Pogacar’s third successive Tour title. Except a comedic episode of swapping bikes during the frenetic stage over the cobblestones of northern France, the 25-year-old Dane has not put a foot wrong.

Runner-up last year, Vingegaard trailed Pogacar by 5’32” at this point last year – a gap that has come down to just 39 seconds this July. This after a week very much aligned to the Slovenian’s strengths, with the longer, higher, grinding Alpine ascents coming up more the domain of Vingegaard, a rider described by the yellow jersey only last week as “probably the greatest climber in the world”.

Throw into the mix three Ineos Grenadiers riders in the top 10, two French climbers lurking on the periphery of the top five, and the fact that Pogacar’s UAE Team Emirates are down one rider after a positive Covid test – and things are certainly far better poised going into Stage 10 this year than they were 12 months ago.

Even the condition of Primoz Roglic is far more promising than when he packed his bags early last year, the Jumbo-Visma co-leader suffering a dislocated shoulder in Stage 5 to Arenberg, but fighting back since – despite admitting “every pedal stroke is like a knife in the back” – to eleventh place on GC, less than three minutes down.

Current top 10 after nine stages

1. Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates)
2. Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma) +0:39
3. Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers) +1:17
4. Adam Yates (Ineos Grenadiers) +1:25
5. David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) +1:38
6. Romain Bardet (Team DSM) +1:39
7. Thomas Pidcock (Ineos Grenadiers) +1:46
8. Enric Mas (Movistar) 1:50
9. Neilson Powless (Education EF-EasyPost) +1:55
10. Nairo Quintana (Arkea-Samsic) +2:13

With the 10th best rider over five minutes better placed than the 10th best last year, it is not just Vingegaard who finds himself in a much more favourable position on the rest day with regards to the yellow jersey.

At this stage last year, Enric Mas was 5’47” down, David Gaudu 7’22” in arrears, and Nairo Quintana the best part of 25 minutes off the pace. Geraint Thomas, albeit carrying an injury, was 39’42” adrift, whereas now the Welshman is on course for his best Grand Tour finish since winning the Grande Boucle back in 2018.

These are reasons enough to be joyful ahead of three back-to-back-to-back days in the Alps and some rolling stages in the Massif Central…

So, we’ve established that the competition is far tighter in 2022 than it was for Pogacar’s cake walk last year. But what now? How can his rivals exploit the current status quo to turn the tables on the 23-year-old Slovenian between now and next Monday’s third rest day? Let’s establish a dream scenario not beyond the realms of the plausible for the next six stages…

Tuesday 12 July, Stage 10: Morzine – Megève, 148.1km

Dani Martinez came second at the altiport in Megeve in the Dauphine two years ago, and now the Colombian is out of the GC picture for Ineos (having slumped 20 places on Sunday), he needs to get in the break and take teammate Tom Pidcock with him.

Tour debutant Pidcock may be seventh on GC, but he is the most expendable match for Ineos – one that needs to be burned before he gets burned in the high Alps. Tuesday’s stage is ideal for the 22-year-old who, with Martinez in support, could well even dream of yellow. That possibility alone would make his presence in any move something of a conundrum for UAE Team Emirates. Not wanting to underestimate Pidcock’s potential, they would be forced into working hard on the eve of the first of two key Alpine tests.

Better still, other peripheral GC figures – riders who aren’t expected to figure on the final podium but could still cause the big guns some trouble – need to seize their chance. Neilson Powless (EF Education-EasyPost) could benefit here, perhaps even Primoz Roglic if Jumbo-Visma are prepared to take the fight to Pogacar earlier than expected.

There are also a host of riders just outside the top 10 who should view this stage as a chance to recalibrate: by getting into a dangerous move, Aleksandr Vlasov (Bora-Hansgrohe), Aurelien Paret-Peintre (Ag2R-Citroen), Damiano Caruso (Bahrain Victorious) and Alexey Lutsenko (Astana-Qazaqstan) would certainly ask questions of an already weakened UAE Team Emirates.

Wednesday 13 July, Stage 11: Albertville – Col du Granon, 151.7km

The first proper Alpine test. After the picture-postcard Lacets de Montvernier and the historic Col du Telegraph, a double header of the Galibier and Granon pack a huge punch. Only ever used once in the Tour in 1986, the 2,413m Col du Granon held the accolade of being the highest finish in the race’s history until the Galibier (2,645m) took that crown in 2011. We now have them both in a single stage – and it’s here where Pogacar’s rivals must pile on the hurt.

Speaking to Daniel Freibe of the Cycling Podcast at the summit of La Super Planche a few days ago, when Ineos Grenadiers still had four riders in the top 10, Geraint Thomas said: “It obviously gives us cards to play but at the same time, we need to use them. At the right time, as well. You’ve got to have the legs to do it, but we seem to at the moment. Hopefully the opportunities can arise and we try and use those numbers. It’s one thing having them, but another using it. We’ve got to actually make the most of it.”

Well, now’s the time Geraint. With Pidcock and Martinez paving the way on Tuesday, Adam Yates and Thomas must take over. With the time trial still far away, Filippo Ganna must help set a feverish pace for the flat approach to the Lacets and then going onto the Telegraph, to help isolate Pogacar early so that Yates can go up the road on the Galibier ahead of a Thomas attack on the Granon. Bish, bash, bosh – Bora style!

Jumbo-Visma will also deploy their duo of Vingegaard and Roglic with one of Sepp Kuss and Steven Kruijswijk going up the road. Brandon McNulty and Rafal Majka look very solid for UAE Team Emirates, but if they can be broken – either today or tomorrow – then Pogacar will feel the pressure.

Thursday 14 July, Stage 12: Briançon – Alpe d’Huez, 165.1km

The last of this Alpine tryptic is arguably the queen stage of the race, especially with the allure of those 21 hairpin bends as the climax. No one will want a win here more than a Frenchman, given that the stage falls on Bastille Day. This is where Thibaut Pinot goes up the road for Groupama-FDJ teammate David Gaudu who, with Michael Storer and Valentin Madouas by his side, goes for broke on the winding road to Alpe d’Huez.

Of course, Pogacar would love a win here to cement his status as a modern-day great. And he could well stem the tide by putting in a reminder of his invincibility. But you also sense that this would be the perfect stage for Jonas Vingegaard to take a maiden Tour stage win in style – perhaps arm-in-arm with teammate Roglic, the Jumbo duo channelling their inner Hinault and LeMond on what is essentially a carbon copy of the legendary 1986 stage to the Alpe.

Friday 15 July, Stage 13: Le Bourg d’Oisans – Saint-Étienne, 192.6km

A ceasefire in the battle for yellow will probably see Wout van Aert try to reassert his green dominance in the break, the Belgian pushing to complete another hat-trick of stage wins. But expect the usual suspects to get in on the act – the likes of Tim Wellens (Lotto Soudal), Magnus Cort (EF Education-EasyPost), Peter Sagan (TotalEnergies), perhaps even Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck), if he’s still around.

Saturday 16 July, Stage 14: Saint-Étienne – Mende, 192.5km

Another breakaway day in the Massif Central – with four Cat.3 climbs ahead of the steep Cat.2 rise to the airfield at Mende on the menu – but potential for a GC ambush, too. Both Pinot and Bardet got their pockets picked by Steve Cummings on the Cote de la Croix Neuve back in 2015 so they may try to exact their revenge. Or perhaps Cummings, now a DS in the Ineos team car, will mastermind a coup for Yates or Pidcock?

Sunday 17 July, Stage 15: Rodez – Carcassonne, 202.5km

If he’s allowed off the leash, Van Aert may well try to ensure that the breakaway contest the win rather than let the sprinters battle it out in Carcassonne. But with such slim-pickings for the fastmen in this Tour, a more likely scenario is for the sprinters’ teams to control this one ahead of a showdown between Fabio Jakobsen (Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl), Dylan Groenewegen (BikeExchange-Jayco) and Caleb Ewan (Lotto Soudal). Although given the difficulty of the start of week two, we can’t bank on all the sprinters still being there…

Potential outlook for the end of week two

Last year, Vingegaard’s deficit at the end of week one was untouched throughout the second week, with the Dane rising one place but staying 5’32” behind Pogacar ahead of the second rest day. Rigo Uran was the main threat to the yellow jersey, albeit himself an unchanged 5’18” down.

Given what’s in store in the second week of the 109th edition of the Tour, it would be inconceivable for there to be a similar GC stasis – primarily because, unlike in 2021, Pogacar does not yet have the race sewn up early.

Most neutrals would love a different rider in yellow entering the final week – whether it’s one of those peripheral figures undergoing the type of GC rebound enjoyed by Ben O’Connor last year at Tignes, or, ideally, one of Pogacar’s main rivals.

If the thought of a 36-year-old Thomas being back on the Tour summit is too far-fetched then there’s no reason – with his team, his form and the current openness of the race in general – why Jonas Vingegaard cannot be top of the pack come next Monday.

Pogacar being forced to perform in the Pyrenees in week three would be the dream scenario for all cycling fans. So, it’s over to you Jumbo-Visma and Ineos Grenadiers – it’s time to exploit the fact that you have a combined five riders in the top 11 against UAE’s single man in yellow.

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