FOX Super 6 NFL contest: OutKick handicapper Geoff Clark’s conference championship picks

Unfortunately, this is the final chance of the NFL season to win money in FOX Sports’ weekly, FREE-to-enter contest called the “FOX Super 6”. Since the NFC title game is on FOX, the Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers is the only game in the contest.

All you need to do is answer six questions, predicting team and player performances through the FOX Sports App. Points are accrued for all six picks. Here are the official rules and some FAQ’s for the FOX Super 6 contest.

FOX Super 6 NFL Conference Championship Challenge

1. Which QB will throw for the most PASSING YARDS?

Detroit’s defense is quietly one of the best at stopping the run. Opponents are averaging just 3.8 yards per carry vs. the Lions, which ranks fifth in the NFL. My hunch is Detroit coach Dan Campbell takes away San Francisco’s ground game and forces Niners second-year QB Brock Purdy to make plays in the air.

Whether or not that happens, we’ll see. Furthermore, San Francisco’s weakness on defense is stopping the run and Detroit’s offensive line is one of the best in the NFL. In an effort to reduce possessions, I can see the Lions “establishing the run” Sunday.

PICK: 49ers QB Brock Purdy

2. Order by who will have the most TOTAL YARDS (receiving + rushing) from highest to lowest:

I’m assuming everyone who plays in the contest will put Niners RB Christian McCaffrey atop of this list. CMC is the presumptive 2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year. McCaffrey is just as dangerous catching the ball out of the backfield as he is running it.

Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs is second for me in this pool because he’s a younger version of CMC. Gibbs is as much of a threat in the pass game as he is on the ground. In the divisional round, Gibbs had 13 touches for 144 total yards and 1 rushing TD.

With that in mind, Lions RB David Montgomery is at the bottom of this list. Montgomery had only 47 total yards on 13 touches. He’s been Detroit’s goal-line running back all season but Lions third-string RB Craig Reynolds got a 1-yard TD run last weekend.

Let’s sandwich Detroit WR Amon-Ra St. Brown between Gibbs and Montgomery since I’m projecting the Lions to utilize their rushing attack more so Sunday. St. Brown can go off but San Francisco’s has an elite secondary and pass rush.

PICK: 1- 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey, 2- Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs, 3- Detroit WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, and 4- Lions RB David Montgomery

3. Who will have the most RECEPTIONS?

It’s surprising that 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk is the third-most popular pick for this question. Aiyuk led San Francisco in several receiving stats during the regular season such as targets (105), catches (75), and receiving yards (1,342).

Niners WR Deebo Samuel left the divisional round early with a shoulder injury and is “questionable” for the conference championship. If Deebo misses Sunday, Aiyuk should have even more targets. Plus, Detroit has two of the worst outside cornerbacks in the NFL.

PICK: San Francisco WR Brandon Aiyuk

4. Order by who will have the most RECEIVING YARDS from highest to lowest:

Obviously, the Aiyuk pick correlates with the third question so no reason to discuss that further. St. Brown and Lions TE Sam LaPorta are a toss-up for the second pick here. But, I’ll go with St. Brown because he’s been a game-breaker lately.

For instance, St. Brown has at least 106 receiving yards in four of the last six games dating back to the regular season. He’s caught a TD pass in five of those games. The Sun God’s worst game was last week where he caught 8 passes for 77 yards and 1 TD.

San Francisco WR Jauan Jennings being at the bottom of this list makes sense when you compare his numbers to the other guys. On top of that, Detroit’s only good cover corner is rookie nickelback Brian Branch who will lineup against Jennings in the slot.

PICK: 1-Niners WR Brandon Aiyuk, 2- Detroit WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, 3- Lions TE Sam LaPorta, and 4- San Francisco WR Jauan Jennings.

5. Which player will record the LONGEST RUSH?

Speaking of “game-breakers”, Gibbs might be the most explosive player on the field in Lions-49ers. His 31-yard TD scamper in the fourth quarter last week put Detroit ahead for good vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday.

This is also a quasi-leverage play. A majority of the FOX Super 6 contest entrants are picking CMC. So I can gain some ground on the field if Gibbs has the longest rush in this game. Finally, since Gibbs is a threat in the passing game, he might be running against lighter boxes.

PICK: Detroit RB Jahmyr Gibbs

6. What will be the outcome of this game?

Lions win or lose by 6 points or fewer | 49ers win by 7 points or more

Typically, this is where I’d “fade the FOX Super 6 contest”. That said, the Niners aren’t seven points better than the Lions. San Francisco’s defense is overrated and Detroit’s top-tier offensive line can keep Jared Goff upright.

Moreover, Campbell is one of the best playcallers in the league and Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson switches up his strategy weekly. Everyone assumes the Lions won’t be able to stop the 49ers but Detroit’s offense will have success too. Lastly, given Detroit’s dynamic offense, the Lions could sneak in the backdoor with a late TD in garbage time.

PICK: Lions win or lose by 6 points or fewer