Opinion: The real test of Remco Evenepoel and Quick-Step’s red jersey credentials at La Vuelta start this weekend

The sixth man to lead this year’s La Vuelta did what none of his predecessors have managed and retained the red jersey on Friday – ensuring that the 77th edition will not become the first ever Grand Tour in history to produce seven different leaders from the first seven days.

But speaking after a relatively easy day in the saddle, Remco Evenepoel seemingly made light of the challenges on the immediate horizon – skirting over the dual summit finishes in the Asturias this weekend to focus instead on Tuesday’s time trial, for which he will admittedly be the overwhelming favourite.

“I have a nice advantage now,” the man in red said. “I will be happy to just keep my time gap ahead of the rest day but if there’s an opportunity, I will do my best. It’s a three-week race and going into the time trial with an advantage would be better than going in behind.”

Going in behind is not inconceivable – even for a man who looked so assured on the Pico Jano as he rode into red on Thursday.

To an extent, because riding 21 stages in a row is still something unprecedented for the Belgian – and easing the gradients doesn’t change that. Then again, Tadej Pogacar was unproven over three weeks when he rampaged to three stage wins at the 2019 Vuelta – indeed, unproven in the Tour de France when he won on his debut a year later – so the notion of inexperience being an obstacle to glory is not without it flaws when it comes to generational talents like the Slovenian and his Belgian counterpart.

And yet, there is still a lingering doubt over Evenepoel’s ability to perform consistently in the mountains, particularly when the gradients do really ramp up – as they will on Sunday’s deciding climb of Les Praeres. And while the red jersey can currently rely on the rainbow jersey of Julian Alaphilippe for support, there are huge question marks over his Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl team’s ability to defend a leader’s jersey.

The Belgian team certainly struggled to defend Alaphilippe’s yellow jersey when the matter arose in the 2019 Tour and – for all their improvement as an all-round Grand Tour power – Quick-Step are still more synonymous with the cobbles and classics than they are yellow, pink and red jerseys.

Fausto Masnada and Pieter Serry are the team’s only recognised climbers, while Alaphilippe is battling back from injury. Bora-Hansgrohe may have managed to gate-crash the super teams in the Giro but they had way more fire power behind Jai Hindley in May than Quick-Step have propping up Evenepoel. What’s more, Hindley has already gone within a day of winning a Grand Tour, whereas Evenepoel is yet to finish one.

Neither of the weekend’s challenges contain more climbing than Thursday’s 4,120 metres of altitude gain. But the fact that Evenepoel performed so well in that test doesn’t simply mean he has the edge for these two days in Asturias.

First up is Saturday’s 153.4km Stage 8: five categorised climbs and a total of 3,741m of climbing. The gradients are relatively gentle until the final slog up the Collau Fancuaya, a 10km climb with an average gradient of 8.5% that is being used for the first time in the Vuelta.

The Fancuaya boasts an irregular slope and double-digit sections including a 19% slap in the face halfway up and two 17% sections in the final kilometres which could really do some damage. If this will be a supreme test of Evenepoel’s credentials then what follows on Sunday could be a pivotal moment in the race.

The 171.4km Stage 9 includes four categorised climbs as well as the short but staggeringly sharp final climb of Les Praeres. Just 3.9km long but with an average gradient of 12.9% it is the only serious rampa inhumana of this Vuelta. A third of the way up, the slope pitches to 23% and there’s another 24% ramp inside the final kilometre.

It was on Les Praeres where Simon Yates took the spoils in 2018 to reclaim the red jersey that he kept all the way to Madrid. Primoz Roglic will be hoping he can do the same. The Slovenian refused to go deep and try to follow Evenepoel on the Pico Jano, Roglic preferring to ride alongside the other GC favourites – minus Enric Mas, who shadowed the Belgian – through the rain and fog.

Evenepoel has struggled on lesser gradients this year in Tirreno-Adriatico and the Basque Country, although in the one-day Clasica San Sebastian he managed to drop Yates on the steep Erlaitz climb. This is what makes Sunday’s showdown so fascinating – it could really go either way. History and the head says no to Remco, but the heart may have other ideas.

Evenepoel is not the only rider in this race, though. Even a strong Evenepoel could struggle if he finds himself isolated against coherent Jumbo-Visma and Ineos Grenadiers teams. Roglic has the American Sepp Kuss to lean on while Ineos have Pavel Sivakov, Tao Geoghegan Hart and Carlos Rodriguez in the top 10 and all around a minute and a half behind Evenepoel.

There is also the prospect that Ineos throw caution to the wind and sent a rider like Richard Carapaz up the road early on. The Ecuadorian suffered on Thursday and is almost three minutes down on Evenepoel. But should he go on the offensive, he is too much of a threat to ignore.

For all the talk of the savage incline of Les Praeres, it’s worth noting that only 39 seconds separated the top 10 riders in 2018. Evenepoel could struggle and even relinquish the red jersey in Stage 9 but not lose enough time to rule out a return to the top after the pan-flat 31km ITT to Alicante. Whatever happens, we’re in for a thrilling weekend’s racing in Asturias after which we’ll be better qualified to judging whether Evenepoel is a major contender or a mere animator in this Vuelta.

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