A new season for politics and politicians

Hello and welcome to the working week,

First, thank you to Georgina for holding the Week Ahead fort while I took a break with my family on the North Norfolk coast — great for holidays, bad for house-hunters.

The long hot summer is drawing to a close. And while resolutions to the current economic and political strife appear a long way from resolution — the UK’s summer of discontent, for instance, is turning into an autumn of industrial unrest — we will enter a new season of leadership in the next seven days.

The UK’s Conservative party leadership election will (at last) be completed on Monday. Unless polling to data has been wildly inaccurate, Liz Truss will claim the prize and name a new cabinet. The FT will be providing full analysis of these events.

Sweden’s Magdalena Andersson is hoping to be reappointed as premier as her country goes to the polls on Sunday. Like both the outgoing and incoming British prime minister, Andersson rose to power in chaotic circumstances after her party had already governed the country for several years. Unlike the British PM, Andersson is more popular than her party and her rivals. This election, however, is much closer to call than that of the UK’s Conservative party vote.

US president Joe Biden will be out on the stump with November’s midterm elections very much on his mind. The week will end with reflection for the US as it passes the 21st anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.

Another Conservative party leadership election will also finish this Saturday, in Canada. The contest — kick-started in February with the resignation of Conservative party leader Erin O’Toole — makes the British Tory leadership contest look a bit rushed. But Canada’s Conservatives have the luxury of taking their time because whoever wins will not be immediately running the country.

Thanks for your continued feedback and comments about items on The Week Ahead. Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or hit reply to The Week Ahead email — you can sign up for that here.

Looking slightly further ahead, there is still time to sign up for the FT’s Future of News digital conference on September 14. Register for your pass and join The New York Times, Forbes, DMGT, NBC News, BBC News and FT journalists for debate on the most effective means to survive and prosper in an increasingly competitive market.

Economic data

The week will begin with an Opec+ meeting. Saudi Arabia last month warned it could push for a cut in oil production if prices keep falling.

The European Central Bank’s monetary policy committee meets on Thursday. Last week’s drop in eurozone unemployment has fuelled speculation that the central bank will accelerate its tightening cycle to curb eurozone inflation with a 0.75 percentage point rise.

There are also inflation and trade figures from China, industrial production data from Germany, jobs figures from Canada and international service sector comparisons with the latest round of purchasing managers’ index data. The holiday season is officially over.

It is Labor Day on Monday which means the US markets will be closed.

Companies

Apple unveils its new iPhone range.

Among those expected to deliver some fairly positive news is Ashtead, the equipment hire group. Supply chain constraints and economic uncertainty have pushed companies to rent equipment from Ashtead rather than buy it, chief executive Brendan Horgan said in June.

This will be further enhanced by a pipeline of infrastructure projects about to take shape, according to Steve Woolf at investment bank Numis. “The medium-term outlook is supported by infrastructure spending, with a significant volume of large-scale projects due to break ground over the next 12 to 18 months,” he wrote.

Key economic and company reports

Monday

• Austria, Opec+ meeting takes place in Vienna

• China, eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK: Caixin/S&P Global/IHS Markit/Cips services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• EU, July retail sales figures

• Switzerland, Q2 GDP figures

• UK, Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders August vehicle registration figures.

• Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann gives a speech at the Money, Macro and Finance Society conference at the University of Kent.

Tuesday

• Australia, monetary policy committee meeting

• Chile, monetary policy committee meeting

• France, Germany, UK, US: S&P Global construction PMI data

• UK, Q2 mergers and acquisitions involving UK companies

• Results: Ashtead Group Q1, Berkeley Group trading update, Cairn Energy H1, Salvatore Ferragamo H1

Wednesday

• Apple launches the new iPhone range

• Canada, interest rate announcement

• China, monthly and quarterly trade figures

• Germany, July industrial production figures

• Italy, retail sales data

• Poland, monetary policy council meeting

• UK, Halifax monthly house price index

• US, Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book published plus consumer credit figures. Also, Federal Reserve vice-chair Michael Barr will discuss how to make the financial system safer and fairer at the Brookings Institution, his first public comments since taking the role.

• Results: Barratt Developments FY, Halfords trading update, Tod’s H1, WHSmith trading update

Thursday

• EU, the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting

• France, July trade figures

• Japan, Q2 GDP figures

• OECD employment outlook

• UK, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors monthly residential market survey plus Recruitment and Employment Confederation & KPMG monthly jobs report

• US, monthly motor vehicle sales

• Results: Darktrace FY, Funding Circle H1, Melrose Industries H1, The Restaurant Group H1

Friday

• Canada, monthly unemployment figures

• China, August consumer price index and producer price index figures

• UK, Bank of England inflation attitudes survey

• US, quarterly financial accounts

• Results: Computacenter H1

World events

Monday

• Italy, energy industry conference Gastech begins in Milan

• Lebanon, vote by the parliament to decide the country’s next president for a term of six years

• Russia, the country’s annual Eastern Economic Forum begins in Vladivostok

• UK, new prime minister to be announced

• UK, Criminal barristers in England and Wales begin indefinite strike action over fee levels for legal aid work

• UK, a legal challenge to the government’s policy of sending migrants to Rwanda will be heard in the High Court. The hearing is expected to last five days.

• UK, NHS staff in England will this week begin vaccinating care home residents and people who are housebound using the first Omicron-specific Covid booster

• US, Labor Day national holiday

Tuesday

• Belgium, the Annual Meetings event by the Bruegel institution begins with speakers including IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva

• UK, Booker Prize shortlist announced

• Swaziland, National Day commemorating independence from Britain

Wednesday

Thursday

• UK, Royal Mail workers begin two days of strikes in a dispute over pay

• US, National Football League 103rd season begins

Friday

• Tajikistan, Independence Day national holiday

• US, President Joe Biden campaigns in Ohio ahead of November’s midterm elections

Saturday

• China, the Mid-Autumn (or Moon) Festival public holiday

• Monaco, the Les Rendez-Vous de Septembre conference, one of the insurance industry’s biggest gatherings, begins in Monte Carlo

• Taiwan, Mid-Autumn (or Moon) Festival

• UK, last night of the BBC Henry Wood Promenade Concerts aka The Proms

• US, women’s singles final of the US Open Tennis Championship in New York

Sunday

• Russia, regional and local elections

• Spain, National Day celebrations in Catalonia, expected to coincide with pro-independence demonstrations

• Sweden, general election for the Riksdag’s 349 MPs

• US, 21st anniversary of the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington. Also, men’s singles final of the US Open Tennis Championship