A return to normal

Hello and welcome to the working week.

I am writing this note from London, where we begin the next seven days in sombre mood with the state funeral at Westminster Abbey and later the laying to rest of Queen Elizabeth II in a private ceremony at Windsor Castle. Perhaps ironically, it means that the British capital, a ghost town during the pandemic, is now (once again) a magnet for all kinds of people.

It will not take long for Westminster politics to return to normal after the period of mourning for the monarch. The new chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng will present a mini-Budget on Friday, with tax cuts the centrepiece of an attempt to boost economic growth to 2.5 per cent.

Plans to reverse a proposed rise in national insurance and halt an increase in corporation tax from 19 per cent to 25 per cent are baked in. However, the opposition Labour party has told Financial Times reporters that they suspect Kwarteng will also bring forward a 1 percentage point cut in the basic rate of income tax.

The end of the Queen’s funeral will also mark the resumption of something else paused during the period of mourning: industrial action. More than 560 port operatives and maintenance engineers at Liverpool docks will begin a two-week strike over pay from Monday evening.

US president Joe Biden and newly installed Conservative prime minister Liz Truss will be hot footing it (separately) to the airport from the Westminster Abbey service in order to catch the UN General Assembly in New York.

We end the week with Italy’s general election, called after the resignation of Mario Draghi in July — register here for the FT’s webinar on the future for the country after results are announced.

Labour, which would no doubt dearly love a snap election to be called by Truss, begins its annual conference in Liverpool on Sunday.

Economic data

The headline acts in the economic news this week will be the Fed’s Open Market Committee and the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. Both are widely expected to maintain their aggressive rate-tightening policies with 0.5 to 0.75 percentage point increases. After the worse than expected US inflation figures last week, some are even speculating about further steep tightening by the Fed.

The economics diary this week is quite light on hard data. It ends with another round of purchasing managers’ indices, giving us international comparisons on the manufacturing and services sectors among a group of the leading developed nations.

Companies

The corporate announcements diary is thin too. On Monday GSK spin-off Haleon reports its first set of earnings since listing on the London Stock Exchange in July. What is now the world’s biggest standalone consumer health business has raised expectations with reports of a “strong” cold and flu season — bad for people, good for a business like this.

Kingfisher’s results on Tuesday will give an indication about whether the home improvement surge during lockdown has been translated into make-do-and-mend as household budgets have been eroded by inflation.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Bank for International Settlements publishes its quarterly report on global financial markets

• Sweden, Riksbank’s monthly monetary policy meeting

• Results: Haleon H1

Tuesday

• Argentina, Q2 GDP figures

• Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia publishes minutes of its last monetary policy meeting

• Canada, August consumer price index (CPI) figures

• China, monthly policy rate decision

• Germany, August producer price index (PPI) data

• Japan, August CPI figures

• UK, Department for International Trade’s investment and trade data

• US, August residential construction data

• Results: Kingfisher H1

Wednesday

• Argentina, monthly trade and unemployment data

• Brazil, Banco Central do Brasil announces this month’s rate-setting decision

• EU, governing council of the European Central Bank holds a non-monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt

• South Africa, August CPI figures

• UK, August public sector net borrowing data

• US, Federal Open Market Committee announces its rate-setting decision

• Results: General Mills Q1

Thursday

• EU, ECB’s latest economic bulletin

• EU, European Commission flash consumer confidence data

• France, business and manufacturing confidence figures

• Japan, Bank of Japan announces monthly rate-setting decision

• UK, Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee announces August rate-setting decision

• US, Q2 current account figures

• Results: Costco Wholesale Q4, FedEx Q1, Polymetal International H1

Friday

• Canada, monthly retail sales figures

• Eurozone, France, Germany, UK, US: S&P Global/Cips composite (manufacturing and services) purchasing managers’ indices

• Malaysia, August CPI data

• Spain, Q2 GDP figures

• UK, GfK consumer confidence survey

• Results: Smiths Group FY

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Hong Kong, Cardinal Joseph Zen Ze-kiun and five well-known members of the Democratic Front are due to appear in a court in West Kowloon, accused of failing to properly register a humanitarian fund for which they were administrators. If convicted, the penalty is a small fine.

• UK, state funeral of Queen Elizabeth II at Westminster Abbey, with about 500 heads of state expected to attend and large crowds outside.

• UK, former Formula One tycoon Bernie Ecclestone was due to appear today at Southwark Crown Court on fraud charges for failing to declare to HM Revenue & Customs £400mn of overseas assets held in a trust, but courts will now be closed on Monday as a mark of respect for the Queen’s funeral.

• UK, more than 560 port operatives and maintenance engineers at Liverpool docks will begin strike action this evening over the pay deal offered by port operator MDHC.

• US, trial is due to begin in New York of Tom Barrack, one of Donald Trump’s earliest supporters in the 2016 presidential campaign, on allegations that he illegally acted as an agent of the United Arab Emirates

Tuesday

• Italy, Milan Fashion Week begins

• UK, about 6mn people will receive the £150 disability cost-of-living payment from today

• US, Joe Biden is in New York for the UN General Assembly. The president is also expected to speak at a Democratic party fundraising event ahead of the November midterm elections

Wednesday

• Belize, National Day

• Malta, Independence Day

Thursday

• Australia, public holiday for a day of national mourning following the death of the Queen

• Mali, Independence Day

• Pakistan, court hearing expected to indict former prime minister Imran Khan for contempt of court. He has also been charged with terrorism offences, which Khan’s supporters claim is an attempt by current prime minister Shehbaz Sharif to silence him

• UK, shortlist announced for the FT Business Book of the Year

• US, Nasa holds a media briefing for Double Asteroid Redirection Test, the world’s first mission to test technology for defending Earth against potential asteroid or comet hazards. It is due to impact its target asteroid, which poses no threat to Earth, next Monday.

Friday

Saturday

Sunday