A very British election begins

Hello and welcome to the working week,

In this year of significant elections, the UK has the most significant election this week, but one that is only open to a few hundred backbench Westminster MPs. It is the vote to refresh the Conservative party’s parliamentary governance body, the 1922 committee.

The first task for the new group of 18 backbench Tory MPs after Monday’s plebiscite will be to agree the rules for the election of their party’s new leader (ie the British prime minister). This is expected to be completed by September. A clutch of MPs have already thrown their hat into the ring, but these could be whittled down to a shortlist of two in a matter of days, according to the FT’s parliamentary team.

The timetable for deciding the new PM is important and serious, with UK inflation the highest in the G7 and the country’s growth next year (if it grows at all) forecast to be the slowest, according to the IMF. There is a critical need for someone competent to guide the country through the intervening period before the general public gets to decide its government again through a general election.

Also, the British summer of discontent rolls on. If anything, it is gaining momentum. Criminal law barristers will walk out again on Monday, for reasons explained in this piece from a legal insider. Further train trouble is on the cards with the unions Aslef, representing train drivers, and TSSA, representing more than 6,000 Network Rail staff, balloting for strike action. And on Friday, a ballot for industrial action closes for University and College Union members in a separate dispute over low pay, unmanageable workloads and professional respect. This could lead to further disruption for students at UK universities and colleges once this long hot summer of unrest is over.

Thank you again for the comments about this newsletter. Please contact me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or hit reply to this email.

Economic data

It is a busy week for significant economic data announcements, including inflation figures for the US, UK, France and Germany — possibly giving an indication of whether the cost of living rise is nearing a peak — plus GDP data from China and the UK.

The Federal Reserve publishes its latest Beige Book on the current state of the US economy and the rate setting committees of New Zealand and South Korea’s central banks could raise their respective rates by 50 basis points. Also, Croatia is being accepted as the latest member of the eurozone group.

Companies

US banks will kick off the American earnings season this week, with bumper results forecast thanks to the Fed’s run of interest rate increases. Analysts expect JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup to see growth in net interest income, the difference between what banks pay depositors and what they earn from loans and other assets.

The big fear is recession. Banks are typically the hardest hit stocks during downturns. When trouble appears on the horizon, the pressure builds to increase capital reserves in case existing loans turn bad.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

Tuesday

• Germany, ZEW economic sentiment survey

• India, June consumer price index (CPI) data and May industrial production figures

• Japan, June producer price index (PPI) data

• Opec monthly oil market report

• UK, British Retail Consortium and KPMG June retail sales report

• Results: Grafton Group H1 trading update, PepsiCo Q2

Wednesday

• Canada, Bank of Canada’s monetary policy committee meets to set rates

• China, June trade figures

• EU, May industrial production data

• France, final June CPI figures

• Germany, final June CPI figures

• New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy committee meets

• South Korea, rate-setting meeting

• UK, June GDP figures plus May trade and services output data

• US, June CPI figures plus Federal Reserve publishes its latest Beige Book on current economic conditions

• Results: JD Wetherspoon FY, PageGroup Q2 trading update

Thursday

• EU, European Commission publishes its summer economic forecasts

• Japan, May industrial production figures

• UK, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors monthly residential market survey

• US, June PPI data

• Results: Barratt Developments trading update, Ericsson Q2, Experian Q1 trading update, Ferrovial H1, JPMorgan Chase Q2, Morgan Stanley Q2, Rio Tinto Q2 operations review, Tullow Oil trading update

Friday

• Canada, May wholesale trade data

• China, Q2 GDP figures and June retail sales and industrial production data

• EU, May goods trade figures

• India, trade statistics

• Italy, June CPI figures

• Poland, June CPI figures

• UK, June company and individual insolvency figures

• US, June food services and retail sales data

• Results: Bank of New York Mellon Q2, BlackRock Q2, Burberry Q1 trading update, Citigroup Q2, Svenska Handelsbanken H1, Wells Fargo Q2

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• EU, eurozone finance ministers to meet in Brussels

• UK, continuation of strike action by criminal law barristers in England and Wales over cuts to legal aid. Plus, TSSA ballots more than 6,000 staff at Network Rail in a dispute over pay, conditions and job security

• UK, election of members of the Conservative party’s 1922 committee, who will then rubber stamp the terms of the leadership election to decide the country’s next prime minister

Tuesday

• EU, ministers from 27 member states due to pass the final three legal acts required for Croatia to become the 20th member to adopt the euro currency

• UK, Transport for London ends a consultation on reshaping inner city bus services following the government’s requirement for significant cost savings

• UK, 12th July bank holiday in Northern Ireland, commemorating protestant King William of Orange’s defeat of the Catholic King James II at the Battle of the Boyne in 1690

• US, New York observes the phenomenon of “Manhattanhenge”, where the sun sets in perfect alignment with the borough’s east-west numbered streets

Wednesday

• France, Bastille Day public holiday, commemorating events at the start of the French Revolution in 1789

• Montenegro, National Day public holiday, commemorating date when the country’s borders were formally recognised at the Congress of Berlin

• US president Joe Biden begins a Middle East tour travelling to Israel, the Palestinian territories and Saudi Arabia

Thursday

• Germany, delegates at a German Social Democrats conference in Hannover will discuss whether to expel former chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, from the party over his close links with Russia

• Iraq, National Republic Day commemorating the overthrow of the Hashemite monarchy in 1958

• UK, NHS publishes May waiting times for suspected and diagnosed cancer patients and Home Office publishes June EU Settlement Scheme statistics. Also, the British Open, the world’s oldest golf tournament, begins in St Andrews

Friday

• UK, BBC Proms music concerts begin at the Royal Albert Hall in London. Plus, the Royal International Air Tattoo, Europe’s largest air show, begins at RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire. Also, Saint Swithin’s Day when folklore says that if it rains it will rain for another 40 days

• US, Donald Trump and two of his adult children have agreed to testify in a New York state civil investigation starting today into the former president’s business practices. Also, the World Athletics Championships begin in Oregon, the first time they have been held in the US

Saturday

• UK, workers at the Budweiser Brewing Group’s Lancashire site, which brews Budweiser, Stella Artois, Becks, Boddingtons and Export Pale Ale, begin a 36-hour strike over pay