AI task force sets out scenario of increased UK joblessness and poverty by 2030

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Rishi Sunak will seek to reassure the public on Thursday about the risk posed by artificial intelligence, as the UK government sets out a possible scenario in which advances in automation lead to increased unemployment and poverty by 2030.

The British prime minister will promise the people “we will keep you safe” in a speech that will coincide with the publication of a set of papers designed to inform discussions at next week’s AI safety summit at Bletchley Park.

The scenarios put together by a government task force, chaired by tech investor Ian Hogarth, examine the capabilities and risks of advanced artificial intelligence.

The papers anticipate the development of “highly capable general-purpose AI models that can perform a wide variety of tasks and match or exceed the capabilities present in today’s most advanced models”.

So-called “frontier AI” consists of systems that use large neural networks, which operate in the style of the human brain and include those underpinning products like OpenAI’s ChatGPT or Google’s Bard chatbots.

The summit next week will largely focus on threats such as the ability of artificial intelligence to assist in cyber attacks or design bioweapons but it will also address other potential impacts on society.

One scenario outlined by Hogarth’s task force involves the effect of AI systems “starting to provide effective automation in many domains” in the near future.

The paper continued: “By 2030, the most extreme impacts are confined to a subset of sectors, but this still triggers a public backlash, starting with those whose work is disrupted, and spilling over into a fierce public debate about the future of education and work.”

In this scenario the “AI systems are deemed technically safe” — “but they are nevertheless causing adverse impacts like increased unemployment and poverty”.

The summit will also look at more existential risks, such as the possibility AI could autonomously supersede human control. “There is insufficient evidence to rule out that future frontier AI, if misaligned, misused or inadequately controlled, could pose an existential threat,” the task force’s paper on the future risks of frontier AI concluded.

It added however that “many experts see this as highly unlikely” as the AI would need to be able to gain control and “be able to avoid being switched off”.

Striking a more positive note about the technology’s potential ahead of the summit, Sunak will also say that “AI will bring new knowledge, new opportunities for economic growth, new advances in human capability, and the chance to solve problems we once thought beyond us”.

The British government is hoping to host a number of world leaders at next week’s summit but there are concerns attendance will be affected by the war between Israel and Hamas

Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission, is still scheduled to come to the summit, along with US vice-president Kamala Harris and commerce secretary Gina Raimondo, as well as representatives from China.