ATP clay power rankings: Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz lead the way, but where’s Rafael Nadal?

The 2023 clay season is here.

With the Australian Open, Indian Wells and Miami Open done and dusted, it’s time to move onto the next stage of the calendar, which features three ATP 1000 events in Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome, before the French Open.

Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz look as though they will be the leading contenders across the dirt, but who tops the power rankings? What about Rafael Nadal? And who else could make their mark across the next two months of the season?

1. Novak Djokovic

Djokovic looked sharp and focused at the start of the season when he won the Australian Open, playing some of his best tennis in recent memory.

But how will a month off impact his game?

Last year it seemed to contribute to a slow start to the clay season as he lost his opener in Monte Carlo and then battled through three successive three-set matches in Belgrade before losing in the final.

Given how good Djokovic was in Australia it would be surprising if the same happened again.

Djokovic looked dialled in throughout the first month of the season and with Nadal and Alcaraz both not 100% fit yet, the world No. 1 looks the player to beat on clay. Whether it stays that way when the French Open comes around remains to be seen.

2. Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz made a blistering return to the tour after missing four months with injury, winning titles in Buenos Aires and Indian Wells, making another final in Rio, reaching the semi-finals of the Miami Open, and getting back to No. 1.

Had Alcaraz still been playing Monte Carlo he would likely be No. 1.

He looked excellent on clay when he returned in Buenos Aires and Rio, and last year beat Nadal and Djokovic on his way to winning Madrid.

The prospect of more clay showdowns with the two greats is tantalising – even if we have to wait a little bit longer for them to face off again.

3. Stefanos Tsitsipas

It’s been a season of two halves so far for Stefanos Tsitsipas. In Australia he was brilliant, winning all four of his matches at the United Cup and then reaching the Australian Open final.

But across Rotterdam, Indian Wells and Miami he only won two matches.

His potential injury concern makes him a somewhat tentative pick, but if he’s healthy Tsitsipas has shown enough on clay over his career so far to suggest he will contend for the big titles again.

Last season he won Monte Carlo, reached the Rome final and made the semis in Madrid. The big challenge for Tsitsipas will be beating Djokovic, Alcaraz and Nadal. He is 0-3 against Alcaraz, 2-11 against Djokovic and 2-7 against Nadal.

4. Jannik Sinner

So the nod goes to Jannik Sinner, who has been playing great tennis this year under the guidance of coach Darren Cahill.

The Italian has described himself as a “different player” to last year and says his goal for 2023 is “trying to improve every day”. He certainly looks improved: playing a sharp, focused game that has seen him score wins over Alcaraz, Taylor Fritz, Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev so far this season.

He hasn’t enjoyed huge success on clay in the past but enters the swing in strong form after reaching the Miami Open final and seemingly riding an upward curve.

5. Rafael Nadal

Is five too low for Nadal? Of course it is based on his outstanding clay pedigree, but it’s impossible to ignore the last six months, when he has not only had several injury issues but has also not been at his very best when he has played.

If Nadal returns to action in Barcelona next week, having withdrawn from Monte Carlo, then it will be three months since he last stepped on court at the Australian Open. As good as he is on clay, it will surely take him some time to get back into the swing of things.

Last year he had a disrupted start to the clay season and didn’t hit his stride until the French Open. There’s every chance the same could happen again and Nadal wins in Paris for a 15th time, but for now it looks like he might have work to do to add to his clay palmarès beforehand.

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