Biden behind in new swing state polling as campaign insists he ‘beats expectations’

Another day, another round of bad polling news for President Biden.

The 80-year-old incumbent once again finds himself trailing former President Donald Trump in a new batch of swing state polls — released the same day Biden’s campaign accused the “pundit class” of needlessly hyperventilating about his re-election chances.

The Emerson College survey out Thursday found Biden behind Trump, 77, among likely voters in four of six states expected to be vital battlegrounds in next year’s election.

The 45th president currently leads the 46th president in Arizona (46%-44%), Georgia (49%-41%), Nevada (47%-44%), and Pennsylvania (49%-45%).

Biden narrowly leads Trump, 45% to 43%, among likely voters in Michigan, and the two major party front-runners are tied in Wisconsin with 45% apiece.

“Biden is generally underperforming his 2020 support with voters under 30, whereas Trump has locked in his support with middle-aged voters,” explained Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball.

“Likely voters under 30 break for Biden over Trump by eight points across these six state polls, 47% to 39%, with 14% undecided. Trump’s base of support lies with the 50-64-year-old general election voters, who support him over Biden by a 13-point margin, 52% to 39%, while likely voters over 65 are evenly split between the two candidates: 46% to 46%.”

The poll also found that 39% of likely Biden voters picked their candidate because they disliked his rival, while only 19% of likely Trump voters said the same. A plurality of the Republican’s likely supporters, 30%, said they would back Trump because they liked him.

The Emerson poll results largely match the findings of a New York Times/Siena College poll released over the weekend that sent the Beltway into a frenzy.

That survey showed Trump leading Biden in five of the same six battleground states among registered voters, with only Wisconsin leaning toward the incumbent.

During a press call Thursday, the Biden campaign downplayed the polling by pointing to the Democrats’ strong showing in off-year elections held Tuesday night.

“Time and again, Biden beats expectations. Happened in 2020, happened in 2022, happened on Tuesday night,” communications director Michael Tyler said.

“You see days, weeks, months of breathless predictions about how terrible things are gonna be for Joe Biden followed by an election day with historic victories,” he went on.

Despite the campaign’s chest-thumping, the president largely stayed out of the most closely watched races. For example, he completely avoided stumping for Kentucky Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear, who won re-election Tuesday over Republican Daniel Cameron.

Biden himself shrugged off the bleak polling when approached by reporters outside the White House Thursday.

“You don’t read the polls,” the president said. “I’ll give you 10 polls, eight of them I’m beating him [Trump] in those states. Eight of them. You guys only do two.”

In the RealClearPolitics average, Trump is up in Nevada 46.8% to 44.3%, 47.8% to 42.8% in Georgia, 47.3% to 43.7% in Arizona, 44.2% to 43.2% in Michigan, and 46.2% to 45.0% in Pennsylvania. Biden only bests Trump in Wisconsin, 46.5% to 46.0%.

Trump also leads Biden in the national popular vote, 45.6% to 44.5%.

“Make no mistake, 2024 will be a close election. And we know that we can’t take anything for granted. We’ve been saying that from the beginning,” campaign manager Julie Chávez Rodríguez stressed.

“We’re building a strong operation … in the places that matter most.”