Can Primoz Roglic rebrand? Will Mark Cavendish retire on a high? 10 key questions ahead of 2024 cycling season

The debate around Wout van Aert riding for GC at the Giro was just a red herring. Given the team have a ready-made leader in that domain in Vuelta winner Sepp Kuss or new arrival Cian Uijtdebroeks, Van Aert would be better off focusing on adding what would be only a second Monument win to his otherwise pulsating palmares.

When Van Aert won Milano-Sanremo in 2020, the likes of Mathieu van der Poel, Tadej Pogacar and Remco Evenepoel had yet to win a major classic. Fast forward four years – and 10 Monument starts for Van Aert – and the Dutchman has four wins, the Slovenian five, and his fellow Belgian two. Van Aert, meanwhile, has finished in the top 10 on every occasion, and made the podium six times. He has also, crucially, failed to win.

A puncture at the worst moment possible deprived Van Aert of the chance of going head-to-head with old rival Van der Poel in last season’s Paris-Roubaix. Rather than focusing on a Giro debut, the 29-year-old will surely go all-in for a classics campaign in which he needs to be more ruthless, better supported, and have the rub of the green.

How Van Aert fares this March and April could well shape the entire spring – and beyond. Like the recently retired Peter Sagan – who, for all his swashbuckling brilliance, only won two Monuments during his career – Van Aert will not want to hang up his boots with any regrets. Crazy to say it, but it’s make or break in 2024.

It doesn’t get much better than winning all three Grand Tours with three different riders – unless, say, Visma-Lease a Bike repeat that feat while Van Aert gets a monumental monkey off his back a few times to boot. Given Primoz Roglic’s departure, a Grand Tour double from Jonas Vingegaard and Sepp Kuss, say, winning the Giro would match the lofty heights of 2023. But that’s also unrealistic.

By allowing Roglic to leave, the team has lost one of its most consistent, successful and talismanic riders. It would be delusional to think anyone – especially a winless, wet-behind-the-ears (however promising) Cian Uijtdebroeks, should his move from Bora-Hansgrohe go ahead – could step into the Slovenian’s sturdy shoes straight away.

While the focus will remain on Vingegaard and Van Aert, Visma-Lease a Bike could benefit from putting their eggs in different baskets. A Grand Tour debut for promising sprinter Olav Kooij, for example; a stage win (to complete his grand slam) and a tilt at GC in the Giro for Kuss, perhaps.

But, deep down, we all know that with Roglic and title sponsor Jumbo leaving, the end of an era has dawned. Visma’s dominance may not continue unabated – especially with Bora and Lidl-Trek strengthening, plus the ongoing clout of UAE Team Emirates and Ineos Grenadiers. The only way is downhill from here, surely.

Although he still had a year left on his contract, the time was right for Primoz Roglic to set himself a fresh challenge. The Slovenian was clearly as unhappy with playing second fiddle to Vingegaard in the Tour, as he was to relinquish his opportunity to make history with a fourth Vuelta victory in the name of loyalty towards super-domestique Kuss.

His move away makes sense, even if his destination – to Bora, rather than Ineos – perhaps less so. The German team is already stacked full of strong GC riders with the likes of Jai Hindley, Aleksandr Vlasov, Emanuel Buchmann, Lennard Kamna and Sergio Higuita, as well as newcomer Dani Martinez. But only one of those has won a Grand Tour (Hindley in the 2022 Giro) and Roglic – despite his 34 years – is clearly in a different class to them all.

The likely departure of Cian Uijtdebroeks (whence Roglic came) is a blow but more to the team – who will miss a promising rider coming to the boil – rather than Roglic – who will have one less internal pretender after his crown. Since joining Jumbo in 2016, Roglic has been a serial winner with 74 notches to his bedpost. He’s not likely to lose that winning mentality – but it may struggle to resonate in a different environment and alongside an entirely different group of support riders.

Roglic is too good to disappear now he’s switched sides. But it may take some time for him to find his feet. And come July, it may also become clear why Visma were happy to put all their eggs in Vingegaard’s basket rather than try to shoehorn Roglic into the mix.

While the momentum rests with the double champion from Denmark, his rival from Slovenia may well have already bagged his hat-trick had his preparations for last July’s Tour not been derailed by his crash in Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Be that as it may, Vingegaard drew level with Pogacar’s two Tour wins and fans now have the mouth-watering chance of seeing the pair do battle again in the race for a third yellow jersey.

Should both riders slip up, Primoz Roglic should be ready to pounce, along with Belgium’s Remco Evenepoel – provided he makes his Tour debut – and a host of outsiders such as Carlos Rodriguez, Enric Mas, Juan Ayuso, Geraint Thomas, Richard Carapaz and the Yates brothers, Adam and Simon.

But you get the impression that it will be the usual two-horse race this summer. Should Pogacar again fail to arrest the direction of tide, you sense that Vingegaard will be more likely to make it five in a row before his predecessor takes his third. But a lot can change between now and July.

The head says Vingegaard but the heart says Pogacar.

First, he must make it to the start in Florence – and to do that, he will need to prove his form, fitness and hunger to Astana in the months up to July. Aged 39. In a year where he was meant to be relaxing with the family. So, it’s a big ask for Mark Cavendish to even have a theoretical chance of pushing for the record-breaking win number 35.

But should he be there, Cav did enough last year to show that he can still win on the biggest stage – a chain slip on the home straight coming between himself and glory in Bordeaux. The Manx Missile’s relationship with Cees Bol was just coming together nicely when he crashed out of the 2023 Tour the day after that heartbreak. With old lead-out man Michael Morkov joining Astana and former pilot Mark Renshaw confirmed as a directeur sportif for 2024, the ingredients are there for Cav.

It won’t be easy. It may all end in tears. And it may all depend on the form of Jasper Philipsen and the other fast men. But Cavendish’s push for win #35 should prove to be one of the main subplots in the Tour. The head says no but the heart is a resounding yes.

Cavendish aside, it is going to be fascinating to see how the sprint hierarchy develops over the next 10 months following a flurry of big-name moves. After a frustrating season, Fabio Jakobsen, the man who kept Cav out of Quick-Step’s Tour team in 2022, moves to Team dsm-firmenich in a bid to revive his fortunes, while another former Quick-Step sprinter, Sam Bennett, swaps Bora-Hansgrohe for Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale after a frustrating two years.

Caleb Ewan (Jayco-AlUla), Alberto Dainese (Tudor Pro Cycling), Sam Welsford (Bora-Hansgrohe), Arnaud Demare (Arkea B&B Hotels) and Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek) have also all joined new teams. Their arrivals will have a knock-on effect with Ewan notably competing with Dylan Groenewegen and Michael Matthews, Welsford going up against Jordi Meeus, and Milan perhaps treading on Mads Pedersen’s toes.

The man to watch should still be Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) although the Belgian will have to stave off competition from Kaden Groves, who put in an impressive shift during the Vuelta. Ewan’s departure from Lotto Dstny should open the door to Arnaud de Lie, who may now get his chances in bigger WorldTour races, while Dutchman Olav Kooij will surely make a Grand Tour debut for Visma-Lease a Bike.

While Soudal-QuickStep’s focus nowadays is more on Evenepoel’s GC push, Jakobsen’s departure will open the door to Tim Merlier, who should be able to make a belated Tour appearance for Patrick Lefevere’s men. Albeit without compatriot Tim Declercq, who will be killing breakaways for Lidl-Trek.

It will be fascinating to see the machinations playing out as Philipsen bids to hold on to his crown while others look to stake their claim at their new teams.

The arrival of supermarket chain Lidl has seen a 40% boost in budget for the US-registered WorldTour team, leading to an influx of new arrivals. Britain’s Tao Geoghegan Hart joins from Ineos Grenadiers to spearhead the team’s Tour de France campaign, with solid mountain domestiques in Patrick Konrad (Bora-Hansgrohe), Sam Oomen (Jumbo-Visma), Carlos Verona (Movistar) and Andrea Bagioli (Soudal-QuickStep).

Towering sprinter Jonathan Milan also comes in from Bahrain-Victorious with “breakaway killer” and tractor aficionado Tim Declercq (Soudal-QuickStep) slipping into the engine room of the revamped team, which already boasts the likes of Mads Pedersen, Bauke Mollema, Quinn Simmons, Mattias Skjelmose, Guilio Ciccone and Jasper Stuyven.

If Lidl-Trek have been described as the sport’s new “super team”, then they’re still a fair bit behind the likes of UAE Team Emirates, Visma-Lease a Bike, Ineos Grenadiers and even Bora. While they certainly cover all bases now, the roster still comes across as a collection of riders thrown together rather than a cohesive unit with disparate but unifying goals. That may change in time, of course.

Geoghegan Hart’s progress will be key. The Hackney Condor had plateaued at Ineos until returning to form last season – only for a broken hip to bring him crashing down to earth. Changing teams is never easy – especially mid-injury – but the 28-year-old believes he’s on course in his rehabilitation. And while it will take some getting used to seeing Geoghegan Hart in the multi-colours of Lidl-Trek, he’s been pencilled in as co-leader for the Tour alongside Pedersen. No pressure, then.

Geoghegan Hart leaves behind an Ineos team in transition. Gone are the experienced lieutenants Dani Martinez and Pavel Sivakov as well as the promising Ben Tulett and Luke Plapp, with only Tobias Foss (Visma-Lease a Bike) and Oscar Rodriguez (Movistar) coming in. The team’s GC hopes will lie with Geraint Thomas, who is 38, Egan Bernal, who is still on the road to recovery, and Carlos Rodriguez, who turned down a move to Movistar after finishing fifth in his debut Tour in 2023.

Dutchman Thymen Arensman has finished sixth in both the Giro and Vuelta but has yet to ride the Tour, while a question mark remains over how to get the best out of Tom Pidcock. The 24-year-old has yet to crack the top 10 in a Grand Tour and certainly lost some of his attacking verve by targeting GC last year.

On paper, the team should have a large role to play in the classics but their limitations are laid bare by TT specialist Filippo Ganna being their best sprint option beyond ageing compatriot Elia Viviani, who has not ridden a major stage race for three years. You sense that the team would be best deployed in chasing stage wins through the likes of Pidcock, Kwiatkowski, Ganna, Arensman, Sheffield and Fraile, rather than set up shop for their leaders like the Team Sky of old.

There’s great potential for Ineos Grenadiers to be one of the big animators of the WorldTour – getting in breakaways and riding on the front foot. Instead, they may go all-in for a top-five for Rodriguez, which wouldn’t be half as fun. Let’s hope the riders do justice to their new Gobik orange-red-black fade jersey and set races ablaze.

Through Demi Vollering, Lotte Kopecky and Lorena Wiebes, the formidable SD Worx team won 11 out of a possible 27 WorldTour races in 2023. Throw in the three snared by the now-retired Annemiek van Vleuten and that’s over 50% of major races. Together, this terrific trio amassed 40 wins across the board, and featured on the podium on 83 occasions.

With Vollering ready to step into Van Vleuten’s void and capable of winning on all terrains, world champion Kopecky a growing force in stage racing, and Wiebes arguably the fastest sprinter in the WWT, all boxes have been ticked and all bases covered by SD Worx. Throw into the mix Swiss all-rounder Marlen Reusser (eight wins in 2023) and the team’s strength is nothing short of suffocating.

The likes of Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig (FDJ-Suez), Katarzyna Niewiadoma (Canyon/SRAM), Liane Lippert (Movistar), Pfeiffer Georgi (Team dsm-firmenich), Elisa Balsamo (Lidl-Trek) and Gaia Realini (Lidl-Trek) should still provide stiff opposition. But more often than not they will come up against an impenetrable wall.

That’s not to say the women’s races will become boring – as evidenced by the compulsive viewing of the SD Worx one-two in Strade Bianche and the Tourmalet denouement of the Tour de France Femmes in 2023. But a total monopolisation by one team will not do the sport any favours in the long run.

The arrival of Decathlon as a co-sponsor alongside AG2R La Mondiale has signed the death knell for the team’s infamous brown bib shorts. This may have aggrieved some of the peloton’s traditionalists, but most sensible people can agree that the team’s new look is pretty slick and infinitely better.

But it’s not only the team’s kit that is changing. Ben O’Connor et al will now be riding Decathlon’s premium bike marque, Van Rysel. According to reports, the frame, headset and handlebars are all Van Rysel, and will be paired with Shimano Dura-Ace Di2 and Swiss Side wheels.

Some say it’s the cheapest WorldTour bike on the open market, with an identical RCR PRO bike on sale for around £7,400. As a comparison, the Canyon Aeroad ridden by Mathieu van der Poel and his Deceuninck-Alpecin team-mates is worth £8,799, Jonas Vingegaard’s Cervelo S5 £12,500, and the Pinarello Dogma F of Ineos Grenadiers a whopping £13,200.

Van Rysel are not new to the WorldTour: the manufacturer currently designs the kit used by Cofidis. But this is the first time they will have their bikes used in the top tier of pro cycling. New arrivals Sam Bennett and Victor Lafay will be hoping there’s no teething troubles and they can hit the ground running.