Carlos Alcaraz v Novak Djokovic v Rafael Nadal: Who should be French Open favourite right now?

With just over a month go until the 2023 French Open, who is the favourite for the men’s title?

Rafael Nadal missed the tournament as he continues to recover from injury, while Novak Djokovic is 2-2 for the clay season and has pulled out of this week’s Madrid Open.

If all are fit for the French Open, which starts on May 28, then Alcaraz, Nadal and Djokovic are likely to be the three big favourites for the men’s title.

But who, right now, looks most likely to win the second Grand Slam of the season? We make the case for each of them…

The case for Alcaraz

If form is the measuring stick then Alcaraz is clearly the favourite.

Since returning from injury in February, Alcaraz has lost as many matches as he’s won titles (three). Two of those titles have come on clay, where his explosive game looks very well suited.

Serena Williams’ former coach Patrick Mouratoglou said recently that he views Alcaraz as an “all-court player” – but with the shots and skills to give him an “extra edge” on clay.

“Maybe I would give him a little advantage on clay than hard because he has some weapons that are deadly on clay,” he said on Instagram.

“The drop shot, and he’s a master in drop shots. His kick serve which is one of the best, if not the best, on tour and his forehand. On clay you have more time to turn around the backhands to hit forehands and dictate with his shots.

“And of course, he’s an incredible mover. When you put all of this together, I think it gives him even an extra edge on clay compared to hard court.”

Alcaraz announced himself on clay this time last year when he beat Nadal and Djokovic on his way to winning the Madrid Open. With neither in the draw this time, Alcaraz looks the player to beat in the Spanish capital.

The only things counting against him in Paris might possibly be burnout if he plays Madrid followed by the Italian Open, and Grand Slam experience. Although he won his maiden Grand Slam at the US Open last year he is yet to face Nadal or Djokovic over five sets. If the challenge presents itself at the French Open, will Alcaraz pass it first time around?

The case for Djokovic

A slow-build clay season is almost turning into part of the schedule for Djokovic.

He did it in 2021 when he fine-tuned his clay game all the way up to the week before the French Open, winning a title in Belgrade before following up with his second victory in Paris. Last year Djokovic didn’t seem to hit his stride until the Italian Open, which he won, but was then out of sorts in defeat to Nadal in the French Open quarter-finals. And this season he is 2-2 on clay and hasn’t played great on the surface so far.

Perhaps the latter has been done to help with the former. If so it could be a smart move.

But preparation looks to be the key for Djokovic.

If he doesn’t return for the Italian Open then on the form that he has shown so far on clay it would be tough to pick him as the top dog for the French Open. If he does impress in Rome then, depending on Nadal’s status, Djokovic could start as the one to beat in Paris.

The case for Nadal

Nadal’s case is built on his French Open legacy.

Last year he went into the Grand Slam with limited clay action under his belt and having limped off the court following defeat to Denis Shapovalov at the Italian Open.

Less than a month after that loss he was lifting the French Open title for a 14th time, having beaten Felix Auger-Aliassime in five sets and seen off Djokovic in the quarters.

But Nadal’s time away from the court this year has to be cause for concern.

With two weeks until the Italian Open there’s still time for Nadal to get some competitive action in before the French Open, but the opportunities are dwindling.

Nadal has never competed at the French Open without having played a clay tournament beforehand. Every year since his debut at the French Open in 2005 he has at least competed at the Italian Open as part of his preparation.

So what’s the case for him to win in Paris? That he’s done it so many times already.

Even if the French Open is his first tournament since the Australian Open it would still be a huge shock if he lost early – assuming he is healthy. And if he gets through the first few rounds and builds form then anything would be possible in the second week.

It doesn’t look likely now, but Nadal can’t be counted out.

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