Carlos Alcaraz: Will world No. 1 make history by winning 2023 Australian Open after US Open victory?

They say the first time is always the hardest.

That has proved the case for most of the new men’s Grand Slam champions over the last decade. For Andy Murray getting over the hump took years; four Grand Slam final defeats and six semi-final losses before he finally cracked the code at the 2012 US Open. Dominic Thiem lifted his first major in New York in 2020 after being beaten in three finals and two semi-finals. Daniil Medvedev had lost in two major finals and a semi-final before he won the 2021 US Open.

What separates Murray from Thiem and Medvedev is that one quickly became two. Murray added a second Grand Slam title less than a year later; Thiem and Medvedev remain on one, despite the former’s hope that things would become “easier” after the first.

“Until today there was still a big part, a big goal missing,” Thiem said after winning the US Open. “With this goal achieved, I think and I hope that I’m going to be a little bit more relaxed and play a little bit more freely at the biggest events.”

For Thiem it hasn’t panned out that way. Will it for world No.1 Carlos Alcaraz?

For Alcaraz the first time didn’t appear to be the hardest. There were hard moments during his stunning US Open run; three five-setters in a row and a match point saved against Jannik Sinner. But Alcaraz won his first Grand Slam in only his eighth main-draw appearance. That’s faster than Medvedev (19), Thiem (21), Roger Federer (17) and Novak Djokovic (13).

But what are Alcaraz’s chances of going back-to-back at the Australian Open? If he does then he will be the first man to do so in the Open era. Just because the first is the hardest, that does not mean the second follows easily.

Even for some of the greats it has taken time to win Grand Slam No. 2.

Pete Sampras won his first Grand Slam title at the 1990 US Open, he didn’t win his second until Wimbledon 1993. Andre Agassi’s first Grand Slam title came at Wimbledon in 1992 and his second was two years later at the 1994 US Open. Djokovic had three years between his first Grand Slam win at the 2008 Australian Open and his second at the 2011 Australian Open.

For others it has been quicker. Bjorn Borg, John McEnroe and Nadal had exactly a year between winning their first and second Grand Slam titles. Jimmy Connors made his Grand Slam breakthrough by winning the Australian Open, Wimbledon and US Open in 1974. Roger Federer won his first major at Wimbledon in 2003 and his second six months later at the 2004 Australian Open.

For Alcaraz the challenge of winning of a second successive major has been magnified by two factors.

The first is his preparation. He has not played a competitive match since November 4, when he retired from the quarter-finals of the Paris Masters with an abdominal injury. He did return to the court for an exhibition in December, but is not entered to play any competitive events ahead of the Australian Open, which starts on January 16. He will only play an exhibition in Kooyong from January 10-12, so he will be coming into the Australian Open short of competitive practice. But as the top seed at the tournament Alcaraz should get time to work his way into things.

The second factor that could go against Alcaraz is the return of Djokovic to the Australian Open. Djokovic may or may not have beaten Alcaraz if he was playing the US Open last summer, but he looks a strong favourite to win at the Australian Open, where he is a nine-time champion and hasn’t lost a match since 2018. After Djokovic’s red-hot finish to 2022 it is becoming almost assumed that he will soon reclaim his place back at the top of the rankings.

But Alcaraz has shown over the last 12 months that he poses a huge threat to the existing order.

At last year’s Australian Open he blazed through the first two rounds before pushing seventh seed Matteo Berrettini all the way in a tight five-setter. “Unbelievable,” was Berrettini’s verdict of Alcaraz after the match.

While he has admitted he expects the new season to pose fresh challenges – “I am going to start as the favourite and there is going to be a lot of pressure on me” – Alcaraz so far has largely risen to the occasion. In 2022 he went 10-5 against top-10 players. He beat Djokovic in their only meeting in Madrid, won against Nadal, beat Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud twice each.

It would be another spectacular jump for Alcaraz to lift the Australian Open trophy, but not an unthinkable one given everything he has achieved already.

Alcaraz said recently that his ambition for this year is to win a second Grand Slam title. “I want more. To win my second Grand Slam, I would say that’s the goal for the new year.” But will he make more history by winning in Australia?

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