Fifa’s billions and the road to 2030

In just over 24 hours from now, France and Argentina will take to the field for the World Cup final at Lusail Stadium in Doha. It’s an ending fit to grace any big tournament, pitting club team mates Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé against one another. One could cap his glittering career with football’s most coveted prize. The other may bag his second World Cup winners’ medal at the age of just 23. The world will be watching.

For Qatar, the tournament has been a success, despite years of critical headlines and the huge cost associated with overhauling its national infrastructure. Fifa, too, has much to be pleased about. But the World Cup’s big global sponsors have been unusually quiet, perhaps preferring just to ride this one out with an eye on 2026, arguably the juiciest marketing opportunity in history. We have more on that below.

Plus we take a look at what’s left of the European Super League project, after the initial feedback from an EU court case appeared to put the boot in.

And, Scoreboard subscribers, sign up for our Business of Football Summit on March 1-2 next year with promo code PREMIUM23. That’s a complimentary digital pass or £400 off your in-person pass. Register here.

Do read on — Josh Noble, sports editor

Fifa looks ahead to North American cash bonanza

Fifa’s roster of headline sponsors has a combined customer base well into the billions. Coca-Cola, Adidas, Hyundai, Visa, Wanda and Qatar Airways are all consumer-facing brands looking for the reach that the world’s biggest sporting event can offer.

And then there’s Qatar Energy, the state-owned oil and gas company, who joined the others at Fifa’s top table earlier just this year.

Fifa’s partnerships with the likes of Qatar Energy, along with savings from travel costs, have helped it bring in $7.5bn from this World Cup cycle, compared to an earlier projection of $6.4bn, and up considerably from the $5.4bn from the Russia 2018 cycle.

The 2026 World Cup promises yet more riches for football’s governing body. President Gianni Infantino this week revealed an income estimate of $11bn for the tournament in the US, Canada and Mexico in four years’ time. Others think it could be even higher.

The earnings from Qatar and the projections for 2026 tell different stories. This year Fifa’s revenue has been boosted, it says, by the reduced costs associated with a massively condensed event, along with the financial heft of new local sponsors. The domestic Qatari market — with a population of under 3mn — is irrelevant for the big brand partners.

In contrast, the next cycle is all about huge domestic growth opportunities. The three host nations have a combined population of over half a billion, and include the world’s biggest economy. Brands like Budweiser and Kia will be licking their lips.

The next big question looming over Fifa is where to stage the tournament in 2030. There are expected to be three paths to pick from — a European bid from Spain and Portugal, a pan-South American offer including Argentina and Uruguay, and a potential tri-continent option tying Saudi Arabia, Greece and Egypt together. A decision is due in 2024.

Qatar has shown that contests in wealthy countries, even tiny ones, can be lucrative for Fifa, thanks in part to the deep pockets of local partners. A Saudi-bid would doubtless offer similar, but far bigger, opportunities. But it would also bring years of scrutiny and criticism over everything from human rights to climate change. Some already see 2030 as a potential fight for the soul of the world’s most loved sport.

The next World Cup will bring two things Fifa wants — turbo-boosted revenue and a milder media spotlight. But what comes after will help define the future of international football.

The European zombie Super League

A key legal opinion this week was widely interpreted as a blow to the ambitions of Real Madrid, Barcelona and Juventus to establish a breakaway European Super League. But the battle for the hearts and minds of football clubs isn’t over yet.

It all goes back to A22, a Spain-based company that represents the interests of the ESL clubs, and its fight against the incumbent powers that be: Uefa and Fifa.

And don’t forget, A22 isn’t Uefa’s only competitor for the hearts and minds of clubs. The governing bodies might be on the same side of this specific case but on Friday, Fifa set out plans for a 32-team club World Cup in June 2025. Clubs are Uefa territory.

A22 had asked the European Court of Justice to judge whether Uefa can continue to act as a regulator with the power to sanction clubs while also organising — and profiting from — tournaments.

However, Advocate General Athanasios Rantos, a key adviser to the ECJ, said that EU competition rules don’t prohibit Uefa and Fifa or national leagues from threatening to sanction clubs that want to break from tradition. The governing bodies also have the right to approve new competitions, he said.

His opinion, though not binding, was welcomed this week by the two Switzerland-based governing bodies, which run the Champions League and the World Cup, two of the sport’s most prestigious competitions. A formal ruling is expected in the first half of next year.

In the words of Katarina Pijetlovic, Reader in Sports Law at The Manchester Metropolitan University, it would be a “comprehensive victory” for Uefa if the ECJ follows the AG’s opinion.

But what is clear from AG Rantos is that “third parties are not unduly denied access to the market”.

And A22 isn’t backing down. Chief executive Bernd Reichart said he believes the ECJ’s Grand Chamber of 15 judges “will go substantially further and provide the opportunity for clubs to manage their own destiny in Europe”.

Then there’s Fifa’s ever-expanding ambition. Getting into club competition might yet weaken Uefa’s position.

This one ain’t over quite yet.

The best of the FT’s World Cup coverage this week

• It’s the big one. Argentina versus France. Will it be Lionel Messi’s crowning moment in an already bafflingly stupendous career or can youthful France forward Kylian Mbappé prove that he’s the world’s best? And can the reinvention of Antoine Griezmann play a decisive role in the World Cup final?

• Gideon Rachman, the FT’s chief foreign affairs commentator, has attended every World Cup, bar one, since 1994. But he’d never felt judgment until he told people he had tickets for Qatar. He asks: “Is the World Cup still the greatest show on earth?”

• The death of groundbreaking US sports journalist Grant Wahl shocked and saddened football. In a piece exploring football ethics, Simon Kuper remembers a man who loved soccer and campaigned hard for human rights. RIP Grant.

• What legacy will the World Cup leave in Qatar? Watch our Scoreboard video here.

Highlights

• Qatar offered European parliamentarians World Cup tickets, free trips to the Gulf state and other valuable hospitality, putting the EU’s only directly elected institution at the centre of a spreading corruption scandal.

• American billionaire Bill Foley and Hollywood star Michael B Jordan bought Bournemouth football club for £120mn, as money continues to pour into the English Premier League.

Transfer Market

• The US National Collegiate Athletic Association, the governing body of the more than $14bn university sports landscape, has named current Massachusetts governor Charlie Baker as its next president, effective March 2023. Baker succeeds outgoing Mark Emmert at a time of extraordinary transition for the NCAA, as it continues to grapple with the era of name, image, and likeness (NIL) payment for student athletes and realignment of powerful university conferences like the Big Ten. Baker, a Republican, has served as governor of the commonwealth since 2015 and was a basketball player during his undergraduate years at Harvard.

Final Wicket

One does not always turn to Vice retrospectives of early-aughts dance hall music for revelatory cricket scoops, and yet that is our fortune this week. At the conclusion of the site’s short film on the history of “Get Busy”, Vice asks Sean Paul — who headlines the Fifa Fan Festival in Doha tonight — how he got his MC moniker. The Jamaican artist reveals it is actually a nod to cricketer Shivnarine Chanderpaul. Watch from the 22 minute mark, and you’ll never hear any track from Dutty Rock quite the same way again.