Games Workshop: orc ward squad fears Amazon hammering

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Games Workshop’s sci-fi and fantasy miniatures provide war without end to its devotees. But the group must avoid one conflict at all costs: a fight with the fans who are key stakeholders in the vast intellectual property of this UK hobby business.

The company produces miniature figures of deranged-looking warriors and the rules needed for players to pit them against one another in table top battles. A rights deal with Amazon could now yield ancillary revenue from dramatisations.

But the jeopardy is great. What if a clumsy non-player director reflexively recasts the blood-drenched exploits of orcs and space marines as a high school romcom?

Three charts. First, a scatter plot, shows how films based on video games performed. Box-office revenues (inflation adjusted, $million) and the Rotten Tomatoes, film review website, audience score. Second chart, a stack bar, shows Nintendio IP-related sales, constant exchange rate ($million) for 2022 and 2023 for Americas, Japan, Europe and other territories. Third chart, a line chart, shows Share prices for Mattel, Games Workshop and Nintendo, 2020 to 2023.

On Monday, Games Workshop announced that production will only go ahead with a mutual creative agreement.

Games Workshop has been drip feeding its IP into mainstream media for years. Video game adaptations have proved successful, yielding steadily rising royalties.

Bringing Warhammer to streaming screens is the next step. Done well, it would attract new fans and boost core sales. A series set in the sci-fi world of Warhammer 40,000 is the first likely result. Shareholders might prefer a big cinematic release like Mattel’s Barbie movie.

Royalties generated £22mn of profits for the company last year. A TV series might add an extra $1mn an episode, thinks Jefferies.

The partners will hammer out a creative agreement over the next year. Add production times, and a series might hit screens around 2027.

Nintendo and Mattel offer a glimpse of the potential rewards for success. The Japanese gaming group scored a big box office hit this year with The Super Mario Bros Movie.

Cinema takings of $1.4bn helped double the group’s IP and related sales to almost $400mn in the six months to September. Barbie made a similar amount at the box office and generated an estimated $75mn in gross profits including toy sales, thinks Citi. 

For Games Workshop, an equivalent hit would be worth some £900mn in market value.

Much of that has already been priced in. The company now needs to protect its re-rating. Hollywood costumiers take note: orcs and space marines need only armour and weapons. Tuxes and prom dresses will not be worn.

The Lex team is interested in hearing more from readers. Please tell us what you think of the value of Games Workshop franchises in the comments section below.

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