High New Hampshire turnout will endanger Trump’s poll lead

Independent voters in New Hampshire could wreck former president Donald Trump’s hopes of sealing his third GOP presidential nomination on Tuesday, experts told The Post.

The state’s unaffiliated voters — at 344,335, far more numerous than its Republicans or its Democrats — pose a serious risk to his chances of a decisive win, GOP analyst Ryan Girdusky told The Post.

“In New Hampshire, independents can vote in either party’s primary,” Girdusky said. “Many of them are center-left voters, so that’s where he is afraid. If enough of them show up, they could help carry the state for Haley.”

He continued: “Maybe he doesn’t lose New Hampshire on Tuesday, but with a large influx of independents he may come close to tying. And as the de facto incumbent for the Republicans, that’s not a great trend for somebody who’s claiming the primary is already over.”

Trump’s claims that troublemakers among New Hampshire’s 261,254 registered Democrats will “infiltrate” the Republican primary are unfounded, Girdusky said: by law, they cannot participate in the contest.

In October, New Hampshire officials reported that 3,950 voters previously registered as Democrats had switched to the Republican Party or to “undeclared” status in time for them to cast ballots in the GOP primary — 1.5% of the state’s Democratic Party membership.

Trump has attempted to goose turnout among his New Hampshire supporters by claiming that left-leaning partisans are scheming to influence the Republican vote.

“Nikki Haley is counting on Democrats and liberals to infiltrate your Republican primary,” Trump told voters in Atkinson, NH, on Tuesday as he railed against the former UN ambassador who, polls show, is running second in the Granite State.

“A group of people coming in that are not Republicans,” Trump claimed this week. “And it’s artificially boosting her numbers here, although we’re still leading her by a lot.”

On Friday, New Hampshire Secretary of State David M. Scanlan predicted a record high turnout of 322,000 in the Republican primary, extrapolated from the number of absentee ballot requests his office has received.

That GOP turnout prediction is far higher than the state’s tally of 267,768 registered Republicans — suggesting that a substantial number of undeclared voters will opt to take part in the GOP contest.

With the Democratic Party’s New Hampshire primary all but moot in the face of DNC rules placing South Carolina first in its primary schedule, thousands of left-leaning voters could seize the chance to turn thumbs-down on Trump.

That would be a sharp turnaround from 2016.

In the Republicans’ last contested New Hampshire primary, Trump won independent voters with 36% in a large 11-candidate field, according to exit polls.

“For Trump, it’s all about the narrative,” Girdusky said.

GOP primary polls in the Granite State — which take independent crossover voters into account – show Trump widening his lead over Haley after his victory in Iowa this week.

As of Saturday, he held a 16-point edge over the second-place Haley, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average.

Meanwhile, Saturday’s daily tracking poll from Suffolk University gave the former president a formidable 17-point lead, with 53% of the vote, compared to Haley’s 36%, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis trailing far behind at 7%.

The survey of 500 likely GOP primary voters — both registered Republicans and independents who plan to cast Republican ballots — has a 4.4% margin of error.