Holger Rune shows clay class in win over Dominic Thiem in Monte Carlo to suggest changing of guard

The first Masters 1000 tournament of the European clay swing is well under way in Monte Carlo with Novak Djokovic heading a field of the ATP’s leading names.

However, while world No. 1 Djokovic is present in the principality, the King of Clay, Rafael Nadal, is absent through injury.

It is a significant talking point in the tennis world as to who could go on to emerge as his successor in the years ahead, with many tipping Carlos Alcaraz as the one to dominate on the red dirt.

The world No. 2 may well take on his compatriot’s mantle, but there are a number of other young guns who could emerge as serious contenders and we went along to see three of them in action on the fifth day in Monte Carlo.

The new Prince of Clay? Watch out for Rune…

For a long period between 2016 and 2020 the heir apparent to Nadal’s clay-court throne appeared to be Dominic Thiem.

The Austrian reached four successive Roland Garros semi-finals and back-to-back finals in 2018 and 2019, where his hopes of lifting La Coupe des Mousquetaires were only thwarted by the irrepressible and relentless Nadal.

It was a similar story in the Masters 1000 tournaments on the dirt where Thiem has never taken home the winner’s trophy in Monte Carlo, Rome and Madrid, despite reaching two finals in the Spanish capital.

Interestingly, Thiem has won 10 of his 17 tour-level crowns on clay, but his breakthrough at majors and Masters 1000 level was on hard court, coming from behind to defeat Roger Federer in the 2019 Indian Wells final before once again triumphing from the jaws of defeat to overcome a two-set deficit and beat Alexander Zverev to claim his only major title at the 2020 US Open.

First-round exits at the Australian Open, Indian Wells and Miami Open did little to raise the 29-year-old’s spirits to kick off 2023 while just one win from three clay-court tournaments in South America (Buenos Aires, Rio and Santiago) highlighted just how much he has fallen from grace on what he has often claimed to be his favoured surface.

Indeed, Thiem has not won a title since his US Open success three years ago and it is a case of baby steps right now. A run to the Estoril quarter-finals was a much-needed change of the narrative and he backed that up with a first-round win over Richard Gasquet here in Monte Carlo.

But a close-up look at him in the principality confirmed he is currently still a shadow of his former self.

Instead of a story of a belated resurgence from the former world No. 3, the headlines are all about rising 19-year-old starlet Holger Rune, who himself is hoping for a good run on the terre battue after reaching his maiden Grand Slam quarter-final at the French Open last year.

The feisty Dane is looking to back up his meteoric rise following his Paris Masters triumph at the end of 2022 and he has already offered a cameo of a big future on clay having won his first ATP singles title in Munich last April.

Thiem has played several matches on the surface recently but he was outclassed by Rune, who is 10 years his junior, to drop to 4-10 for the season. Rune ran out a 6-2 6-4 winner in his first showdown on the dirt this year.

The teenager matched Thiem’s intensity from the baseline with stinging depth and power on his forehand but also demonstrated wonderful prowess across the court, showcasing quick hands at the net.

Rune now moves into round three in Monte Carlo for the first time and the world No. 9’s trajectory continues on an upward trend that makes him a dark horse for glory on the clay in the months ahead.

Is Ruud a force again on clay?

It’s fair to say 2022 was a massive year for Casper Ruud.

The 24-year-old reached two Grand Slam finals, was runner-up at the Nitto ATP Finals and was one win away from becoming world No. 1 when he lost to Alcaraz in a winner-takes-all US Open final.

It’s no secret that Ruud loves the clay having honed his skills at the Rafael Nadal Academy in Mallorca, and it has perhaps significant that his dip in form at the start of this year has seemingly been rectified on his favoured surface.

Ruud made a surprise second-round exit at the Australian Open and bowed out of both Indian Wells and Miami in round three, dropping a significant number of ranking points having reached the final of the latter 12 months earlier.

But he has responded by producing the goods on clay.

Two-time defending champion Stefanos Tsitsipas is in the Norwegian’s section of the draw but it looks slightly weaker on paper compared with the top side and there are worse bets than Ruud to go on and claim his first Masters 1000 title at the end of this week, if he does continue to move through the gears.

Could Sinner make next big step on clay?

It feels like Jannik Sinner has been around and knocking on the door for a long time now.

The 21-year-old has threatened to announce himself in Alcaraz-style by reaching the quarter-finals of three of the four majors and is a two-time Miami Open finalist at Masters 1000 level – but frustratingly, from his point of view, he has yet to break his duck.

Talk around the grounds in Monte Carlo – with many an Italian in town today given the number of stars from their country who were in action – are convinced it could happen as soon as this Sunday.

There’s a lot of tennis to play for him to live up to such high expectations, but he made an excellent start given it was his first clay-court match of the season.

Even if Schwartzman had been fit, it’s difficult to see how he would have coped with Sinner’s relentless game, with the world No. 8 making just six unforced errors as he progressed in a rapid 38 minutes.

Sinner faces Hubert Hurkacz next with a very real prospect of a potential blockbuster against Djokovic in the last eight should they both navigate their respective matches in the last 16.

The Italian’s results on clay may not yet match up to his form on hard courts, but his powerhouse hitting and ease on the slide make him a very dangerous opponent on the surface. Throw in the evidence of the positive impact of coach Darren Cahill taking full effect and don’t be surprised if he makes a very significant impact on this year’s European clay swing and a very deep run at Roland-Garros.

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