How to Think About Rising Covid Cases in California

If you’re anything like me, Covid-19 hasn’t been on your mind much lately.

It’s been several months since I last wrote about it in this newsletter, and almost as long since I gave it serious consideration. And that’s for good reason.

While Covid has never stopped infecting people in California, by now most of us have several layers of immunity against the virus through vaccines, past infections or both, so the risk of serious illness is not as high as it once was. The rate of spread has been relatively low this year, and Covid hospitalizations in California were lower last month than at any time since the pandemic took hold.

There are some signs, however, that this rosy picture may soon change. New Covid cases have been rising this month in California and across the country. While experts say the trend isn’t a cause for alarm, they do agree it’s something to monitor if you’re hoping to avoid infection.

“We had sort of a nadir this past summer, and it stopped dropping and started to increase a bit,” Erica Pan, the state epidemiologist, said last week in a briefing with health care workers. “I’m sure many of you are anecdotally both hearing about friends and family and colleagues, as well as seeing more or hearing more about some more circulating Covid.”

Since the coronavirus pandemic began, two big Covid surges have occurred each year, one in the summer and a larger one in the winter. For the fourth year in a row, cases began to pick up nationally in late July, though they remain relatively low, with hospitalizations increasing only slightly and deaths remaining flat.

We’re still figuring out whether this is a new normal. As my colleague Apoorva Mandavilli reported, how this rise in cases plays out may offer “the first glimpse of the coronavirus as a post-pandemic seasonal threat, a permanent fixture of the infectious disease landscape.”

In California, the number of people hospitalized with Covid has been ticking up for a few weeks, and the test positivity rate has inched up to its highest level since January, according to state data. The amount of coronavirus present in the state’s wastewater has also been increasing, according to Pan. (It’s difficult to compare current case numbers with those from earlier in the pandemic because these days, more people test at home and don’t report their results. There’s also less Covid screening done in hospitals.)

A new variant, EG.5, has just become dominant across the country, including in California. Experts believe the recent increase in cases is connected less to the emergence of EG.5 than to summer travel, waning immunity and the fact that people are generally taking fewer precautions.

Robert Wachter, the chair of the department of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco, said he wouldn’t call the current rise in coronavirus cases a surge, but more of an uptick. And, he noted, it began from a very low level.

As for how to behave in response to this trend, that’s a tricky question. Many experts still recommend wearing a mask in crowded indoor settings, but they know that not everyone will want to do so.

If you’re at high risk for serious illness, you might want to mask up at the grocery store and avoid eating indoors at restaurants. Other people might just want to wear a mask at the airport, to avoid getting sick during that big summer vacation.

Or maybe the appeal of not thinking about Covid is too powerful to make you take precautions this time around.

“It definitely is riskier than it was a few months ago,” Wachter told KCRW in Los Angeles. “But it’s not night and day. There’s a little bit more Covid in the air than there was a few weeks ago, and if people are inclined to change their behavior based on that, now is the time to begin thinking about that.”

For more:

Where we’re traveling

Today’s tip comes from Steve Moses, who recommends the Downtown San Luis Obispo Farmers’ Market on Thursday evenings: “It has to be the best farmers’ market in the state. Six blocks of food and fun that roll into happy hour. Plus, the best vegetables I have ever seen.”

Tell us about your favorite places to visit in California. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com. We’ll be sharing more in upcoming editions of the newsletter.

Tell us

A number of Los Angeles landmarks are turning 100 this year, including the Hollywood sign, the Memorial Coliseum and the Biltmore Hotel downtown.

Do you have favorite memories of these L.A. institutions? Share them in a few sentences with CAtoday@nytimes.com, and please include your name and the city where you live.

And before you go, some good news

For the 23rd year, an event billed as the world’s only amateur surfing competition for wave riders who are 40 and older returned to Pacifica State Beach last month.

The competition, Kahuna Kupuna — which in Hawaiian means roughly “Big Chief, wise elder” — was started by Roy Earnest, a gerontologist who once helped produce a documentary about older surfers, The Mercury News reports.