IEA claims power sector set for 2025 ‘tipping point’ on emissions

The power sector is getting close to “a tipping point” on its carbon dioxide emissions as renewable energy and cleaner sources of electricity generation are set to provide almost all the new global electricity demand in the next three years, the International Energy Agency has forecast.

The IEA said it expected demand to increase “at a much faster pace” of an average of 3 per cent to 2025, after plateauing in 2022 when the global energy crisis and exceptional weather in some parts suppressed demand.

Global electricity generation is one of the most significant contributors to the greenhouse gas emissions behind climate change, from the burning of fossil fuels.

But Keisuke Sadamori, director of the office for energy security at the IEA, said he expected renewables and nuclear power to meet more than 90 per cent of the additional demand. “Emissions from power generation are set to plateau by 2025,” he added.

The forecast comes after a turbulent year for energy as a result of Russia’s war on Ukraine, when Europe turned to fossil fuels and fired up coal-fired plants in response to the energy crisis. The Asia-Pacific region has also remained heavily reliant on power generated from coal, the dirtiest fuel.

This has led to oil producers maximising profits from fossil fuels, with BP this week scaling back its commitment to cut oil and gas production after reporting record earnings thanks to soaring prices.

But Sadamori said he did not expect this retreat to use of fossil fuels to continue in Europe. The war in Ukraine and subsequent energy crisis had forced Europe to take more “robust measures” in power systems, he said, including more focus on energy efficiency and faster deployment of renewable energy.

“The energy crisis is accelerating rather than slowing down the transition of the power energy systems,” said Sadamori.

IEA executive director Fatih Birol said the rise of renewables and nuclear energy suggested “we are close to a tipping point for power sector emissions”.

“Governments now need to enable low-emissions sources to grow even faster and drive down emissions so that the world can ensure secure electricity supplies while reaching climate goals.”

While the IEA said it expected cleaner energy sources to become more dominant, it predicted a rise in coal-fired generation in Asia-Pacific.

Last year, electricity demand in Europe eased by 3.5 per cent, but rose in the US, India and China.

In the US, this growth was driven by economic activity and higher residential use of electricity during a hotter summer and a colder winter.

The latest IEA report confirmed that electricity demand and supply worldwide was increasingly weather dependent as a result of global warming, with Europe’s unusually mild winter partially accounting for less demand.