Iga Swiatek the favourite at WTA Finals, but could Ons Jabeur, Jessica Pegula or Caroline Garcia cause a shock?

There is no doubt who is the player to beat at the WTA Finals.

Iga Swiatek has been the dominant force in women’s tennis in 2022, winning eight titles and opening up a huge lead at the top of the rankings. She will be looking to cap off one of the most impressive seasons in recent history by winning the WTA Finals in Fort Worth, Texas.

Swiatek has only lost eight matches this year and has won 18 of 19 sets against the three players behind her in the final race standings – Ons Jabeur, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff. But the world No. 1 might not have it all her own way.

We look at the three players who appear to have the best chance of causing an upset at the WTA Finals.

Jessica Pegula

If form counts for anything then Pegula looks to be the main rival to Swiatek in Texas.

“I’m definitely a very ambitious person, a little bit of a perfectionist as well,” Pegula said after her Guadalajara victory.

“I don’t think you could win if you weren’t ambitious, especially at this level. I feel like it’s going to give me more motivation going forward knowing I can win these big titles. I think it will give me a lot of confidence ending the year, going into next year.”

Pegula’s 1-4 head-to-head record against Swiatek does not make for pretty reading, but that’s the same for almost everyone else at the WTA Finals (only Caroline Garcia and Maria Sakkari don’t have losing records against the world No. 1).

WTA Finals H2H vs Swiatek

• Ons Jabeur 2-3 Swiatek
• Jessica Pegula 1-4 Swiatek
• Coco Gauff 0-4 Swiatek
• Aryna Sabalenka 1-4 Swiatek
• Caroline Garcia 1-1 Swiatek
• Daria Kasatkina 1-4 Swiatek
• Maria Sakkari 3-2 Swiatek

Pegula did manage to take a set off Swiatek in their most recent meeting in San Diego and should be favourite to top her group, which also contains Sakkari, Garcia and Coco Gauff. If she can continue her momentum from winning Guadalajara she could give Swiatek a test in the semi-finals or final.

Ons Jabeur

A Swiatek v Jabeur final would probably be a fitting way for the season to finish.

The pair lead the way when it comes to match wins in 2022 and their two meetings so far have both been in finals (Rome and the US Open). Jabeur lost both in straight sets and if there is a third part to the trilogy in Texas then she should be desperate to turn the tables on Swiatek.

“She’ll be hungry,” 18-time Grand Slam champion Martina Navratilova told the WTA.

“She may be the hungriest of all of them. It’s a big event and could be a springboard for next year. She might be the one with the most to prove. It’s funny, No. 1 and No. 2 – one has nothing to prove and the other one might be the hungriest.”

Jabeur has only played one tournament since losing to Swiatek in New York, suffering a surprise loss to Claire Liu in her home event in Tunisia. Can she upset Swiatek if they meet again?

Jabeur did get the better of the world No. 1 last summer in Cincinnati, but plenty has changed since then. In their most recent meeting in the US Open final, Swiatek looked too strong all over the court for Jabeur, who had said before the match that she knew “exactly what to do against her”. Perhaps it will be third time lucky if they face off at the finals.

Caroline Garcia

Garcia has seemingly not had the ideal preparation for the WTA Finals as she has split with her coach Bertrand Perret.

Garcia, 29, has rediscovered her best form this season after teaming up with Perret at the end of 2021. However, Perret told French media that there had been internal issues which led to him not travelling to Texas.

“There have been problems. They ended up spoiling the atmosphere and I preferred to stop. I do this job for fun, and it wasn’t as much fun anymore.”

Whether the loss of Perret from the team impacts Garcia’s play remains to be seen. If she’s on top form then she is a contender to win the title.

Garcia, who made the semi-finals of the WTA Finals in 2017, was the hottest player on tour over the summer and beat Swiatek on clay in Poland. Her form since making the US Open semi-finals has dipped – she has only won one match in her last three tournaments – but Garcia has an aggressive, quick-strike game which can take matches out of an opponent’s hands. In her last meeting against Swiatek she attacked the second serve, stayed positive and put pressure on throughout.

Sakkari, meanwhile, could be a wild card if she can find her best form. She has a 3-2 win-loss record against Swiatek, although she has lost both of their meetings this season.