Iga Swiatek: Will world No. 1 become first repeat WTA winner at Indian Wells since Martina Navratilova in 1991?

Indian Wells is often regarded as the biggest tournament of the tennis season outside the Grand Slams and season-ending finals – so why has it been so unpredictable in recent years?

On the men’s side there have been five different champions in the last five editions, including Taylor Fritz in 2022 and Cameron Norrie in 2021, and on the women’s side there has not been a repeat winner since Martina Navratilova won back-to-back titles in 1990 and 1991.

That’s the longest streak without a repeat champion at a WTA 1000.

The other WTA 1000 events haven’t had repeat winners since:

• Qatar Open: Iga Swiatek – 2022 and 2023
• Dubai Open: Elina Svitolina – 2017 and 2018
• Miami Open: Ashleigh Barty – 2020 and 2021
• Madrid Open: Simona Halep – 2016 and 2017
• Italian Open: Iga Swiatek – 2021 and 2022
• Canadian Open: Martina Hingis – 1999 and 2000
• Cincinnati Open: Serena Williams – 2014 and 2015
• Wuhan Open: Aryna Sabalenka – 2018 and 2019
• Beijing Open: No repeat winner since first staging in 2004

Not only has there not been a repeat champion at Indian Wells for 30 years, but you have to go back to 2009 for the last time that the defending champion made next year’s final – Ana Ivanovic missing out on a second consecutive Indian Wells title when she lost Vera Zvonareva.

It’s hard to pin point why there hasn’t been a repeat winner since Navratilova.

Perhaps Serena Williams would have ended that streak if she hadn’t boycotted the tournament for 14 years, after she and her sister Venus felt an “undercurrent of racism” there in 2001. Serena won Indian Wells in 1999 and 2001, while Kim Clijsters also won two years apart in 2003 and 2005.

Lindsay Davenport was one of the most consistent performers at Indian Wells, winning the tournament twice and reaching four other finals, including three in a row from 2003 to 2005, but she wasn’t a back-to-back champion.

The champions at Indian Wells over the last five years are:

• 2022: Iga Swiatek
• 2021: Paula Badosa
• 2020: Not held due to Covid-19 pandemic
• 2019: Bianca Andreescu
• 2018: Naomi Osaka

Swiatek appears a strong favourite to end the wait for a repeat winner. It was at Indian Wells last year where Swiatek started to assert her dominance on the WTA Tour. After starting her 37-match winning streak at the Qatar Open, she came through three successive three-set matches in the opening week at Indian Wells before beating Madison Keys, Simona Halep and Maria Sakkari to claim the title.

Swiatek looked to be hitting top gear in the Middle East last month as she stormed to the title in Qatar and then swept to the final in Dubai, where she ran into a red-hot Barbora Krejcikova.

Former French Open winner Krejcikova could be one of Swiatek’s main rivals again, along with Australian Open champion Sabalenka, world No. 3 Jessica Pegula, and Australian Open runner-up Elena Rybakina, who beat Swiatek in their last meeting in Melbourne.

How much will the conditions suit Swiatek against power hitters like Rybakina and Sabalenka? Indian Wells usually has some of the slower hard courts among WTA 1000 events, but the balls fly quickly through the dry desert air. Swiatek spoke last year after her win over Angelique Kerber about it being “really hard to play winners” due to the conditions, but as the tournament went on she got into her groove.

Top 10 set sights on Swiatek’s No. 1 spot

This is a big month for Swiatek, who has 2,000 ranking points to defend as last year’s winner at Indian Wells and the Miami Open.

Given her lead over world No. 2 Sabalenka is 4,485 points, Swiatek can’t lose the world No. 1 spot after the Sunshine Double, but those below have an opportunity to close the gap.

Not many of the top 10 have a significant amount of points to defend across Indian Wells and Miami.

Sabalenka lost in the second round at both tournaments last year so only has 20 points combined to defend, while Pegula and world No. 4 Ons Jabeur also didn’t win a match at Indian Wells in 2022.

Aside from Swiatek, Maria Sakkari has the most points to defend over the Sunshine Double as she made the Indian Wells last year.

WTA points breakdown over Sunshine Double

• 1. Iga Swiatek: 2000 (1000 Indian Wells + 1000 Miami)
  2. Aryna Sabalenka: 20 (10 Indian Wells + 10 Miami)
  3. Jessica Pegula: 400 (10 Indian Wells + 390 Miami)
  4. Ons Jabeur: 130 (10 Indian Wells + 120 Miami)
  5. Caroline Garcia: 45 (35 Indian Wells + 10 Miami)
  6. Coco Gauff: 185 (65 Indian Wells + 120 Miami)
  7. Maria Sakkari: 660 (650 Indian Wells + 10 Miami)
  8. Daria Kasatkina: 75 (65 Indian Wells + 10 Miami)
  9. Belinda Bencic: 400 (10 Indian Wells + 390 Miami)
  10. Elena Rybakina: 280 (215 Indian Wells + 65 Miami)

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