Inter ‘slight favourites’ in Champions League semi-final battle with similarly flawed rivals AC Milan – Inside Europe

Italian football has enjoyed a long-awaited European renaissance this season.

After years of decay in continental competition, Serie A now finds itself with one team guaranteed to be in the Champions League final as Inter and AC Milan prepare for their ‘Derby della Madonnina’ semi-final clash.

No Italian side has won the competition since Jose Mourinho’s Inter in 2010, while Milan – the country’s most successful club in Europe with seven Champions League/European Cup crowns – haven’t even made it to the last four since their last triumph in 2007.

All of a sudden – and despite difficult domestic campaigns – the two Milanese giants are the talk of Europe again as they prepare to face off in a mouthwatering double-header at San Siro.

We got in touch with Davide Bighiani at Eurosport Italy to get more insight into how they’ve done it.

Italy’s renaissance year?

Inter and Milan were joined by Napoli in the quarter-finals of the Champions League: the first time there were three Italian sides in the last eight for 17 years.

With long-standing records tumbling, are we seeing the start of something for Italian football or a one-off campaign?

“Honestly we must say that if three teams have reached the quarter-finals, two the semi-finals and certainly one the final, it is also due to the favourable draw,” says Bighiani.

“Inter, Milan and Napoli fortunately will not meet one of the big European teams until the final. Obviously, the hope is that this situation can be repeated in the next few years, but this will also depend on the economic possibilities of our teams, which are still very slim so far.”

The Milanese clubs certainly did get a nice draw, with Inter getting to this stage by beating Porto and Benfica respectively in the knockout stages, while Milan were pitted against Tottenham and familiar foes Napoli. The likes of Real Madrid, Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Chelsea, Liverpool and PSG ending up on the other side of the draw was a stroke of luck that they took advantage of.

Why are Inter and Milan struggling in Serie A?

While Inter and Milan are enjoying their best European runs in years, their domestic campaigns have been relatively disastrous.

Milan’s title defence quickly fell apart and they are now more worried about getting a top-four finish, having given up any hope of catching runaway leaders Napoli.

Inter began the season as the favourites for the Scudetto but have been plagued by inconsistency, leaving them also scrapping for Champions League qualification and coach Simone Inzaghi under pressure.

“Both teams are not made to compete in two competitions: the fatigue and bad form of the most important players who have suffered the after-effects of the World Cup efforts – Theo Hernandez, Rafael Leao and Lautaro Martinez above all – has affected the whole team,” Bighiani adds.

“Players focused more easily on the commitments of the Champions League, which certainly give more showcase.”

So what is the priority now, if the squads aren’t well-equipped enough to compete on two fronts?

“It was a very complicated Serie A season: both Inter and Milan showed their best faces in Europe and therefore in the last few weeks they have made many rotations in the starting 11 in the league,” Bighiani says.

“Surely the Champions League is the main objective in this season finale, as well as making sure they finish in the top four in the league as well.”

Milan’s revived defence and Inter’s search for goals

Milan’s rock-solid defence was the foundation of their title win last season, but it fell apart at the turn of the year when they astonishingly conceded 12 goals in three consecutive defeats against Inter, Lazio and Sassuolo.

Since then, though, coach Stefano Pioli has managed to restore stability and Victor Osimhen’s stoppage-time equaliser in the second leg against Napoli was the first Champions League goal they had conceded since a 2-0 group stage defeat to Chelsea in October.

“Milan went through a bad period between January and February, when they conceded 2-3 goals per game,” says Bighiani.

“Pioli moved to a three-man defence to lock it down a little more, then they switched back to a back four once he found solidity.

“What made the difference, however, was certainly the permanent return of Mike Maignan: he is the one who gives security behind and makes saves that give the Rossoneri points.”

For Inter, the chief issue has been taking chances. The Nerazzurri mustered just two goals in five games during a winless run of five matches around the Benfica tie, but seemed to finally find some form in front of goal again against the Portuguese champions.

“Five goals over two legs is a big improvement after their recent problems,” says Bighiani.

“In the Champions League Inter found the goals they are still looking for in the league; in Serie A – despite the fact that they usually create about 20 goal chances – they don’t finish many. Probably reaching the semi-finals could make the job mentally easier in Italy as well.”

Who are the favourites?

It has been advantage Inter in the derby recently, with the Nerazzurri already bagging victories in Serie A and the Italian Super Cup in 2023.

Milan won 3-2 in their ‘home’ fixture in September, but that was their only derby victory in the last five meetings in all competitions.

Inter missing out on last year’s Serie A title to their rivals by two points, not to mention their memory of losing this tie when it first took place 20 years ago, could give them a mental edge too.

“It’s hard to say who is the favourite: in the last two games Inter have beaten Milan quite clearly, first in the Super Cup final (3-0) on 18 January, then in the league where the 1-0 win on 5 February could have been much bigger,” Bighiani says.

“In our opinion, Inter are slight favourites (51-49), only because the Nerazzurri have to avenge their exit 20 years ago and second place in last year’s Scudetto.”