Mats Wilander: Novak Djokovic ‘big favourite’ for Wimbledon, has Carlos Alcaraz solved grass court problem?

Eurosport tennis expert and seven-time Grand Slam winner Mats Wilander believes that Serbian superstar Novak Djokovic is the “big favourite” for Wimbledon, adding that Carlos Alcaraz might have finally figured out how to play on grass.

And speaking exclusively to Eurosport before the tournament started, Wilander said it is very hard to bet against Djokovic at the moment.

“To me, Novak Djokovic goes in as the big favourite,” he said.

“And the reason that I think he’s the big favourite is that I still haven’t seen anyone who is as solid as Novak from the baseline that serves as well as Novak.

“So over the years, his serve has been improving every time. At the French Open against Carlos Alcaraz, we saw how big the serve is, how important it is to get three points on your first serve, especially when the score is close in your own service games. And I don’t see that with Carlos Alcaraz or Holger Rune or Alex de Minaur or any of the young guys.

“So would I take Novak compared to taking the other 127 players? That is very close. And I say that’s 50-50 between Novak or the field winning.”

He did however add that he thinks Djokovic isn’t feeling that pressure.

“I mean, the pressure is on for Novak big time because obviously, if he wins, he ties Margaret Court at 24 Grand Slams.

“If he wins, he’s now one Slam away from doing the calendar Grand Slam again. And if he wins, you would think that he’s put himself far enough away in the distance from Rafael Nadal to come after him and actually threaten his record.

“So I think the weight of expectations is there, but I don’t think that it’s quite there yet. I would think that he’s learned a tremendous amount from losing in that final at the US Open against Daniil Medvedev when literally history was on the line and winning the calendar Grand Slam. Of course it has been done before, but Novak would separate himself from the other big two, Roger and Rafa.

“So this time I think Wimbledon is a little bit more relaxed for him. I do think that he goes into the tournament thinking that, okay, a grass court is very uncomfortable for most players. At least this is the way I see it. To me, there’s a few players that he can lose to, but I don’t see that many players that can win the tournament.

“Whereas when you go and look at the US Open or the Australian Open, there are many, many more players that can have a great two weeks and can win it here. No one really feels comfortable on a grass court apart from maybe Novak Djokovic. And the reason why he feels comfortable, I think, is because he knows the other players are feeling uncomfortable.

“Of course, Carlos Alcaraz with the win in Queen’s is very dangerous. But can he have learned in just one year on grass courts and not that many matches? Can he have learned enough to threaten Novak? I don’t think so.

“I think the pressure is on in a way. But he’s healthy, he looks young. I think he can win Wimbledon next year if he doesn’t win it this year. So I think he’s got more time on his side than I think we most probably realise, because it’s just not normal to have more time when you’re 36 years old and you’re winning everything already.”

“So what Carlos Alcaraz has learned, I think, during the week in Queen’s, is that there is one particular style of tennis player on grass that he will have trouble against, and a lot of guys have trouble against that.

“And that’s the big server. And of course, it’s Arthur Rinderknech, someone that takes the racket out of his hand. And we have realised that that’s the way to play against Carlos Alcaraz on a hard court, which Jannik Sinner is trying to do, and on a clay court that guys are trying to do.

“And lately, Novak Djokovic did it in the semi-finals, in Roland Garros. He played more aggressively than Carlos Alcaraz was able to do on a grass court. It’s easier, but you have to have a big serve, and you have to dare to come to the net. You have to dare to go for it. But that is the biggest threat.

“I don’t see someone like Novak Djokovic having a big problem against a big server because Novak serves so well. Carlos Alcaraz has a good serve, but it’s very difficult to set up the point on a grass court with a precision first serve and then look to finish the point with the next shot. You need free points on a grass court because the return of serve can get a bad bounce you might not get the setup situation that you want.

“So Carlos Alcaraz, I think, figured out that he knows how to play on a grass court. Someone that moves well and hits the ball back in play is not a threat to him. Someone like Alex de Minaur, and there are very few players that can stay with him when it comes to playing a variety of shots on a tennis court.

“But the big server, I think, Alcaraz has to look out for, I think he figured out how to move. You cannot go as fast on a grass court. You have to stop by taking small steps. You can’t start sliding because you’re going to never stop sliding. So I think he figured out nearly everything about how to play on a grass court, which to me was actually a bit of a surprise.”

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