Monte Carlo Masters 2023 Takeaways: Jannik Sinner v Holger Rune lives up to blockbuster potential, final prediction

Sinner v Rune lives up to blockbuster potential

Much has been made of a burgeoning rivalry between Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, but you can expect Rune to gate-crash that party with whispers on the circuit suggesting that there is real potential for this young trio – 21, 19 and 19 years old respectively – to emerge as their very own ‘Big Three’.

Of course, they will need to start meeting with more regularity at the business end of elite events over the next few years if they are to live up to that sort of hype, but there’s certainly a buzz about the future after so long where the sport feared what would happen when Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal hung up their racquets.

In last year’s Sofia semi-finals, Rune came from a set down to defeat Sinner 5-7 6-4 5-2 as the Italian retired in the decider with an ankle injury, and there was a similarity in the way this last-four clash developed.

Buoyed by a large faction of Italian support, Sinner rampaged out of the blocks, blowing an agitated Rune away 6-1 in the first set.

To his credit, Rune responded in bullish style, flipping the match on its head by sweeping into a 3-0 lead in the second set prior to a rain delay both players were hoping to avoid with Sunday’s final in mind.

Sinner hit back from 5-2 down to rekindle hopes of a straight sets win at 5-5 but Rune unlocked the No. 7 seed’s serve once again to break on a fourth set point and take it 7-5.

Fittingly, the two starlets went toe-to-toe in an enthralling decider with Rune again showing the stronger mentality in tight, key points to break at the death and clinch the match 1-6 7-5 7-5 after almost three hour of exhilarating play.

It is another tough loss at the business end of a Masters 1000 for Sinner as his wait for that next, significant step goes on, but there’s no doubt Rune has proved he is already a very real contender for the top titles now, not just in the future.

Rollercoaster ride for Rublev and Fritz keeps everyone guessing at first

There is often a favourite that emerges prior to head-to-head battles that takes into account the type of surface, the conditions, general form, previous meetings and current fitness.

The American had also won their last three encounters and led the match-up 4-2, albeit with the caveat that the six previous meetings were on hard courts.

It ultimately made this a last-four showdown harder to call, and so it proved as a rollercoaster opener was edged 7-5 by the Californian despite Rublev leading via a break on three separate occasions.

As the sun and the blue skies went AWOL above Court Rainier III, so did Fritz’s clay-court game as Rublev’s busy forehand swept him towards a decider via a tasty breadstick.

A lengthy rain delay ensued with the third set back on serve at 3-2 to Rublev before the Russian No. 5 seed immediately broke from the restart after an epic 34-shot rally that epitomised some of the wonderful exchanges shared throughout the contest.

Rublev quickly reeled off three of the next four games to book a spot in his third Masters 1000 final. The 25-year-old has won 12 titles at 250 and 500 level but has yet to make the next step up. Could this be third time lucky at the next tier for the 2021 Monte Carlo Masters finalist?

Prediction for the final

We are backing Rune to heap more Masters 1000 final heartache on Rublev despite the Russian’s advantage in terms of recovery time.

The Head-to-Head is finely poised at 1-1 with Rune winning the first meeting in the last 16 en route to his Paris Masters success in November last year, while Rublev prevailed 11-9 in a fifth set tie-break decider at this year’s Australian Open at the same stage.

Rune recently picked himself to win the Monte Carlo Masters and the French Open in an ATP predictions video and he’s now just one match away from at least being partly right.

It would be a second Masters 1000 crown for the Scandinavian that would move him up to a career high No. 6 in the world as well as making him a strong contender for more success on what could be the most open clay swing in decades.

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