Opinion: Tadej Pogacar on another planet but Jonas Vingegaard can still have his say in this Tour de France

“I think right now he’s one of the strongest climbers in the world – probably the best climber in the world – and a really compact rider with a really strong team around him.”

This wasn’t someone – anyone – talking about Tadej Pogacar. It was Pogacar himself talking about the man he just denied a maiden Tour stage win – his nearest challenger last year, and the rider who looks most likely to take the fight to him all the way to Paris this year.

Jonas Vingegaard came within a whisker of turning the tables on the yellow jersey with what would have been a morale-boosting victory at La Super Planche des Belles Filles on Friday. It was on this climb, albeit not the steep gravel ramp addendum that featured in the explosive Stage 7 finale, where Vingegaard’s teammate Primoz Roglic conceded the yellow jersey to his compatriot two years ago in the penultimate day of the 2020 race.

Vingegaard didn’t feature in that Tour – although he made his Grand Tour debut for Jumbo-Visma one month later as Roglic bounced back by securing his second successive Vuelta win. When his Tour debut came seven months later, Vingegaard was thrust into a leadership role after Roglic crashed out. The only rider to drop Pogacar during that race – on Mont Ventoux, no less – the Dane stood on the second step in Paris.

Can he go one better this time round? It seems like a faintly ridiculous question off the back of consecutive wins for the man he needs to dislodge. But at this point last year, Vingegaard found himself 1’35” behind Pogacar on GC – meaning the 25-year-old Dane is already exactly one minute up on his 2021 performance.

“We have to look at the pace and speed of Jonas Vingegaard because, to me now, he seems like the biggest threat. He really had Pogacar on the ropes in the last few metres.”

That was the verdict of Eurosport pundit, the moustachioed Matt Stephens, after Vingegaard’s latest display of strength in France. To which Bradley Wiggins, replied:

“It was only when it started flattening out a bit that Vingegaard stopped pulling out that gap. That was where Pogacar was able to use his sprint. We’ve seen the acceleration that he’s got. But Vingegaard is going to be a real threat in the high mountains in this race.”

And high mountains is what we have quite a lot of in the race’s second week. If Friday’s stage crept above the 1,000m mark for the first time, next week includes four mountains higher than 2,000m and back-to-back summit finishes on the Col du Granon and Alpe d’Huez. It is on these Alpine tests where Vingegaard needs to push Pogacar and put down a marker. Eat away at his 35-second deficit and doubt may start to fill the double champion’s mind.

With team-mates Roglic and Sepp Kuss in support in the mountains, Vingegaard is in a prime position to do just that – even if Pogacar can rely on the help of his own able uphill domestiques in George Bennett, Rafal Majka and Brandon McNulty.

Where it could get interesting is with the cards Ineos Grenadiers have up their sleeves: British duo Geraint Thomas and Adam Yates are in third and fourth, with Tom Pidcock in seventh and Dani Martinez in tenth. To have four riders in the top 10 and within 1’55” of the race summit is something the British team must exploit – even if it may end up benefitting the Jumbo-Visma cause, too.

With Wout van Aert in commanding form in yellow a few days back, the Dutch team looked so commanding until the wheels fell off their bus during that chaotic stage on the cobbles. Vingegaard’s mechanical produced one of the comedy moments so far in the race as four Jumbo riders played musical bikes across the road while Pogacar ploughed on up the road.

If a crisis was averted for Vingegaard that day, Roglic’s fall and subsequent dislocated shoulder put a serious dent in the 32-year-old’s yellow jersey bid. But after a strong ride to Longwy and facing his demons on Friday, Roglic is now back within touching distance of the top 10. Although over three minutes down, he could well act as the perfect foil for his younger co-leader, especially if the American Kuss finds his legs.

“Both Ineos and Jumbo had three guys towards the end of the stage, playing the numbers game,” Wiggins said. “And what’s really exciting for me is that Geraint Thomas is up to third place after coming fifth on the stage. We’ve got a real battle on our hands.”

Of course, to pull off a numbers game you need to be prepared to make some sacrifices. That’s the benefit of having numbers in the first place. In this case, Roglic may have to give up his own chances to improve those of his successor – ditto Yates and Pidcock in the service of Thomas and Martinez.

On the subject of numbers, it’s worth noting that the last three riders to get up the gravel ramp and across the line on Friday were three riders from Pogacar’s UAE team – Mikkel Bjerg, Vegard Stake Laengen and Marc Hirschi. Pogacar may be purring right now, but his team certainly have a few cracks to exploit.

What makes Pogacar so exceptional, beyond his apparent ability to ride competitively over any given terrain, is the fact that he has never had a crash or illness bad enough to take him out of a stage race during his career. Now he could well be one of those freaks who manages to avoid misfortune at every turn. But it could well be that one day soon bad luck finally arrives at his door. And if this moment comes this July, his rivals must be there to take advantage.

But even without Pogacar being waylaid by hypothetical calamity, Vingegaard has shown that he could well be capable of beating his rival fair and square on the steep stuff. The man who Pogacar describes as “the best climber in the world” now has a chance to prove that his rival knows exactly what he’s talking about.

—