Premier League questions: Can Arsenal see off Manchester City? Which teams miss out on Champions League?

We’re now just mere days away from the return of the Premier League, with the culmination of the first (and hopefully last) in-season World Cup.

Over the past few weeks Premier League managers will have taken some time off, gathered their thoughts and tried to figure out two key points. Firstly, how can they ensure that the mid-season break doesn’t have too big of an impact on their sides? And second, what little wrinkles can they devise to stay one step ahead of their rivals?

But we won’t be privy to those until the players actually take to the field and start playing again. Until then we can only speculate. So let’s take a look at five questions that could end up defining the remainder of the season.

Can Arsenal hold off City?

This is the big one. Mikel Arteta’s side have been one of the surprises of the season across Europe. You could assume that adding players like Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko would improve them, but not to this extent. Arteta has used the latter expertly in particular, Ben White has been a pleasant surprise, and the steps forward taking by the likes of Gabriel Martinelli have been very welcome.

But now City have had time to regroup. Pep Guardiola has had a month to plan and Erling Haaland has had a month to get as fit as he can be. Plus the aforementioned Jesus is now looking at a spell on the sidelines following a knee injury picked up playing for Brazil.

The Europa League could be the deciding factor here. Guardiola and City will focus on the Champions League (for obvious reasons) but there’s every chance Arteta could decide to give younger players a chance in Europe and keep the key players fresh for the league matches.

Who misses out in the top-four race?

One of the interesting quirks about England every year is that there are six teams competing for the four Champions League places. Throw in newly-minted Newcastle United, and plucky underdogs Brighton, and there’s a very good chance one of the big teams will miss out once again.

At the moment it’s Manchester United, Liverpool and Chelsea on the outside looking in, with the latter completely out of the European places. The January transfer window could be key here depending on which of the giants is able to improve the team.

Can Chelsea find goals from somewhere? Can Manchester United use the excess in the wage budget created by the departure of Cristiano Ronaldo to beef up their attack? Can Liverpool solve their midfield problem? The answer to most of these questions is “probably”, but we’ll have to see come February 3. But this is a weird window. Most of the times big clubs make impulse signings after a World Cup it’s the summer, but this is in the winter, where it’s usually quieter and teams aren’t looking to sell when a replacement could be hard to come by.

The problem is that these clubs may feel that they have to spend money to avoid losing money. United have had this happen a few times but Chelsea and Liverpool may not have budgeted for missing out on the top four. Chelsea are most in need of improvement., having scored fewer goals than any other side in the top half of the table. That has to change otherwise they won’t even be in the race for the top four – good defensive record or not.

Can one of the new managers change their team’s fortunes?

There are four new managers in the relegation battle, with Unai Emery, Nathan Jones, Julen Lopetegui and Gary O’Neil taking over at Aston Villa, Southampton, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Bournemouth respectively. Emery may well feel that ‘relegation battle’ is a bit of a harsh assessment, and will feel as if his sights are firmly set on a top ten finish but there is no denying that Villa are at risk. Frank Lampard, David Moyes, Brendan Rodgers and Jesse Marsch have to be worried about their futures as well.

But what of the new boys? Emery’s move is fascinating given Villarreal are regularly in Europe and won the Europa League during his tenure. The money on offer (both personally and in terms of transfer budget) must have been too much to turn down, or perhaps he felt he wouldn’t get another chance in England. But make no mistake, especially if you’re someone who only thinks of “Good Ebening” when you think of Emery, this is a seriously good manager. It would be absolutely no surprise to see Villa turn things around and climb the table quickly.

The jury is out on Lopetegui still. He has had success of course, but the way things ended at Sevilla have to be a cause for concern. Has he learnt that lesson? He couldn’t stop the slide in Spain, can it happen in England? What about Jones? He’s a fascinating case, he was fantastic for Luton in both spells, but things at Stoke City were an unmitigated disaster. Was that an anomaly? Did his success at Luton only come because of a comfort level? Will the added pressure at Southampton take its toll? We have no idea.

Then there’s O’Neill, a massive roll of the dice for the Bournemouth owners. He might not kick up as much of a fuss as predecessor Scott Parker but there’s a real danger that their current 14th place might start drifting through the teens very quickly. The reporting coming out of the club is very positive (you’d hope it would be) but Bournemouth have to have struck gold with O’Neill or it could get ugly very quickly.

Can Erling Haaland break the top scorer record?

We’ve looked at three key team battles in the table, now we’re going to look at two specific players who might have the biggest say on what happens in the rest of the season.

The first is Manchester City forward Erling Haaland. The Norwegian, in case you’ve been living under a rock, has scored 18 goals in 13 Premier League games. At this rate he could hit 50 Premier League goals, which of course isn’t going to happen. We think…

Andy Cole and Alan Shearer scored 34 goals in 1993-94 and 1994-95 respectively, but they were 42-game seasons. The record for a 38-game season is owned by Mohamed Salah from the 2017-18 season, when he hit 32. Haaland is only 14 goals away from matching that. With 24 matches to go (he missed the match against Leicester City).

There is a genuine chance, albeit a small one, that the 50-goal season by Lionel Messi in 2011-12 is at risk. It’s a small chance it must be said, but this is the sort of thing we have to talk about with Haaland given his start.

The problem with Haaland will be whether he can stay fit. He has low-key been a little bit injury prone over the past couple of years. The World Cup break came at the perfect time, but City’s medical staff have to figure out how they can make sure he isn’t missing too many games. That really is the only thing stopping Haaland from smashing every record.

What happens with Antonio Conte?

Antonio Conte is one of the most important dominoes in the Premier League right now.

With the greatest love and respect to Tottenham Hotspur, you’d be hard-pressed to argue against the notion that Conte is the glue that holds this thing together. He is the one who persuaded captain Harry Kane to stay. He is the one who lured sporting director Fabio Paratici to the club, and then the likes of Rodrigo Bentancur and Dejan Kulusevski, not to mention Cristian Romero.

So what happens if Conte goes?

Well you’d think that depending on who replaces him, quite a few players might well look to leave. Fresh off England heartbreak, Kane might look at a team like Bayern Munich that could help secure his legacy with Champions League success. Bentancur and others will have no shortage of suitors.

But will Conte go?

Well it’s hard to know. He is out of contract in the summer and talks are ongoing over a new deal, but not really getting anywhere by the sounds of it. Juventus are in crisis and will certainly look at Conte if things go south under Max Allegri, no matter what they say. Roma will push hard if Jose Mourinho takes the Portugal job. And certain national teams will certainly covet a manager who builds Italy up like he did. Put it this way, Conte will have options, far more options than Spurs will have to replace him. If they get this wrong the knock-on effect could do irreparable damage to the club.