Putin unveils manual on how to prepare Russians for defeat

Vladimir Putin is apparently concerned about a potential defeat in Ukraine, so much so that he has released new guidelines for Russia’s state-controlled media on how to cover Ukraine’s anticipated counteroffensive.

The idea behind the manual that was reportedly prepared by the office of the president and sent to Russian propagandists is to temper the public’s expectations.

The independent Russian-language news outlet Meduza said it had obtained a copy of the manual, which offers specific instructions for journalists on how to highlight Russian successes on the battlefield and minimize the significance of defeats.

In the document, the Kremlin orders reporters “not to downplay expectations for the NATO-supported counteroffensive that Ukraine has announced,” and not to report that Kyiv is unprepared for the move.

In fact, pro-government media outlets should stress in their coverage that Ukraine’s Western allies are providing Kyiv with weapons and support in anticipation of the spring counteroffensive.

Two sources close to the Putin regime told the Latvia-based Meduza that there is a clear upside to burnishing Ukraine’s military capabilities.

“If the offensive fails, it will be possible to say: the [Russia] army adeptly repelled an extremely powerful attack. The value of this victory will increase significantly,” a source said.

If Ukraine manages to recapture its occupied territories and push the invaders out of the country, “the loss will be explainable too,” according to the source.

“After all, the West has focused a tremendous amount of effort on the front, but its successes — when compared to those efforts — have been very modest. In other words, overall, the Russian army has held its own,” said the source.

The manual also advises journalists not to focus their attention on the amount of money Russia has been spending on rebuilding infrastructure in occupied and annexed Ukrainian territories.

According to Meduza, that sum was likely upwards of $12.5 billion – nearly a third of Russia’s budget deficit for the first quarter of 2023, which totaled more than $30 billion.

Instead, pro-Kremlin outlets should be emphasizing problem-solving in Russia by reporting on repairs to schools and hospitals.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank commented on the leaked manual, writing in its latest update that, if real, the document “suggests the Kremlin is preparing for – if not expecting – Ukrainian successes and is planning to mitigate demoralization in the Russian information space.”

ISW analysts added that the guidelines for the media represent “an important Russian adaptation from previous Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kherson and Kharkiv, which produced dramatic shocks and demoralization in both the Russian military and the Russian information space that the Kremlin likely seeks to mitigate.”