Rafael Nadal, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev or Casper Ruud? Who needs what to win No. 1 race after US Open?

With his shock first-round loss at the US Open, Stefanos Tsitsipas is out of the race to reach world No. 1 after the US Open – but four players remain in the hunt for the coveted top spot in the ATP Tour rankings.

Namely, they are Rafael Nadal, Daniil Medvedev, Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud, with Medvedev and Ruud into round two after their opening wins, while the two Spaniards play on Tuesday.

The ATP world rankings – in operation since 1973 and allowing for historical comparisons across eras – are currently headed by Medvedev on 6,880 points, with Nadal – thanks to his two major wins at the Australian Open and French Open in 2022 – in second on 5,630.

In third is Alcaraz on 4,470 points, who despite not getting past the quarter-finals of a Grand Slam this year, has won two Masters 1000 titles.

Then comes Casper Ruud with 4,695 points.

With Medvedev having to ‘defend’ the 2,000 points that he won 12 months ago at Flushing Meadows – and the same number up for grabs this year – everything could change in the coming two weeks, but what does each player need to happen to reach No. 1?

THE NUMBERS BEHIND THE NO. 1 RACE

Nadal will be No. 1 if:

• he wins the title, regardless of the other trio’s results
• he reaches the final and loses to anyone but Medvedev
• he reaches the semis and none of the other three win the title
• he reaches the quarters, provided Medvedev doesn’t reach the final and neither Alcaraz or Ruud win the title
• none of the other three make the final

Alcaraz will be No. 1 if:

• he wins the title, provided it’s not against Nadal
• he reaches the final and Medvedev or Ruud don’t win the title, plus Nadal doesn’t reach quarters

Ruud will be No. 1 if:

• he wins the title, provided it’s not against Nadal
• he reaches the final but Medvedev or Alcaraz don’t win the title and Nadal doesn’t reach quarters

Medvedev will be No. 1 if:

• he wins the title, regardless of the other trio’s results
• he reaches the final but Alcaraz or Ruud don’t win the title and Nadal doesn’t reach quarters

TSITSIPAS RUES ‘OVERTHINKING’ NO. 1 CHANCE

Tsitsipas’ defeat to Galan was already shocking enough on paper, let alone the fact he lost the first 11 games to sit 6-0 5-0 down.

“I was very motivated and pumped before the US Open started because I knew I could use this tournament to get closer to the No. 1 spot,” Tsitsipas said.

“It would be very weird and very unusual if it didn’t cross my mind because this is something I wanted since I was a kid and I know this is my chance now to step it up.

“It just didn’t go as planned. Sometimes you just need to let it go, you don’t need to overthink it, you don’t need to push yourself too hard, but at the same time it’s difficult because there is this open opportunity right in front of you, you don’t want to mess it up, you don’t want to waste it.

“My chances, I guess, are a bit smaller. The margin is not as thin as it used to be now after the US Open, but I’m still going to try and add points to my ranking, as much as I can until the end of the year. I really want to perhaps finish in the top three… more opportunities ahead.”

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