Route to the final: Projecting Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal’s paths to Australian Open 2023 glory

Rafael Nadal will be the defending men’s champion while Novak Djokovic will be bidding for a 10th title in Melbourne. Stefanos Tsitsipas, Daniil Medvedev and Nick Kyrgios will be among the players hoping to strike another blow for the next generation.

Rarely do things go to plan when it comes to projected routes, but there’s always a first time for everything. So this is how the next two weeks could pan out for Djokovic and Nadal if all the seedings hold up, and how they could make their way through the draw to meet in the Australian Open final for the third time…

Round 1: Djokovic v Carballes Baena, Nadal v Draper

He has been in imperious form over the last few months, losing just once since his return to action in September. It would be an enormous upset if he was beaten by world No. 75 Roberto Carballes Baena, who is usually at his best on clay and lost in straight sets to Djokovic in their only previous meeting at the 2019 US Open.

Nadal has got the kind of spicy first-round draw he would have been hoping to avoid.

“Whatever happens, it will be a special occasion for me,” said Draper, who has had an impressive ranking jump over the last 12 months and could be in a good spot to cause a shock.

Round 2: Djokovic v Dellien, Nadal v Nakashima

Again it looks like Djokovic has the more straightforward match in the second round.

World No. 132 Hugo Dellien has lost in the first round on his previous two main-draw appearances at the Australian Open and won four games against Djokovic when they met at the Tokyo Olympics.

Brandon Nakashima could be a trickier test for Nadal.

The world No. 47 won the 2022 Next Gen Finals and will be hoping to continue his rise up the rankings this season. This will be his first meeting against a Big Three player.

Round 3: Djokovic v Dimitrov, Nadal v Nishioka

Grigor Dimitrov has not fared well against Djokovic in the past.

He has lost nine of 10 meetings against the former world No. 1, his only victory coming on clay in 2013. The 27th seed did look sharp in the United Cup when he pushed Tsitsipas close in a tight three-set match, and he will likely give Djokovic his toughest test of the tournament so far, but an upset appears unlikely.

If Nadal gets through a tricky start to the tournament, then he should be a strong favourite to beat 31st seed Yoshihito Nishioka.

Nishioka has only once made it to the third round of a Slam (at the 2020 Australian Open) and has lost both previous meetings against Nadal in straight sets.

Round 4: Djokovic v Carreno Busta, Nadal v Tiafoe

Djokovic will not have great memories of his recent matches against Pablo Carreno Busta.

Nadal faced Frances Tiafoe in the fourth round of his last Grand Slam appearance at the US Open, and a rematch could be on the cards, which might not be good news for Nadal.

Tiafoe blew the 22-time Grand Slam champion off the court in New York and looks to have found another level to his game. He is playing freely and will likely back himself to beat Nadal again.

Quarter-finals: Djokovic v Rublev, Nadal v Medvedev

Djokovic is projected to face seventh seed Andrey Rublev in the quarter-finals, which is a match-up he would be strongly favoured in.

Ninth seed Holger Rune is another potential opponent, which would be interesting after Rune beat Djokovic in the Paris Masters final in November.

A 2022 Australian Open final rematch could be on the cards for Nadal in the quarter-finals.

Nadal got the better of Medvedev in a five-set thriller a year ago and if he’s got this far – past Draper and Tiafoe – then he will likely have hit decent form. He has a 5-1 win-loss record against Medvedev and this would be an intriguing clash as both look to make the final again.

Semi-finals: Djokovic v Ruud, Nadal v Tsitsipas

Casper Ruud must be the most under-the-radar second seed at a Grand Slam in recent years. Ruud made two Grand Slam finals last year but has barely been talked about as a contender in Melbourne.

His record in three appearances at the tournament is not great – first round, second round, fourth round – but then he hadn’t gone deep at any major before last year. He has shown that he should not be written off and certainly, it’s not implausible that he will make the semi-finals. However, he is yet to win a set in four matches against Djokovic and it would be hard to see that changing if they meet in Melbourne.

Tsitsipas has looked in excellent form over the last month and after avoiding Djokovic in the draw should have his sight sets on making a second Grand Slam final.

He has made the semi-finals of the Australian Open for three of the last four years, including in 2021 when he came back from two sets down to beat Nadal.

If both are on their game this could be a very close match.

Final: Djokovic v Nadal

The projection says top seed against the second seed, but with apologies to the second seed, Ruud, and also the third seed, Tsitsipas, the dream final is probably Djokovic v Nadal.

Although it probably wouldn’t be Nadal’s dream scenario given he has only beaten Djokovic twice in 11 meetings at the Australian Open. Nadal also hasn’t beaten Djokovic on hard courts since the 2013 US Open final, so if they both make it this far then it looks likely that they will leave Melbourne tied on 22 Grand Slam singles titles.

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