Rugby World Cup 2023: Who has qualified for the quarter-finals? How do things stand in each pool? Permutations
The Rugby World Cup pools are coming to a thrilling conclusion, with only two sides guaranteed qualification going into the final round of games.
Plenty of nations are preparing to do battle for a spot in the quarter-finals, while others can only watch on and hope results go their way.
The world’s No.1-ranked team, Ireland, are on course to escape Pool B and will contest with Scotland as they seek to top their group.
The All Blacks, Italy and hosts France are all in contention to qualify from Pool A going into the last game, while in Pool D Argentina and Japan play each other for a spot in the last eight.
Australia meanwhile are one of the nations praying for an unlikely outcome and will rely on Portugal producing a seismic upset against Fiji in Pool C.
So how do things stand going into the final games of a gripping pool stage?
Who has qualified for the Rugby World Cup quarter-finals?
Wales and England are the only teams who have booked a quarter-final place so far, with Steve Borthwick’s side the only guaranteed pool winners.
Fiji, currently second, could still mathematically knock the Welsh off top spot, but that looks unlikely – a win for Wales in their final Pool C game against Georgia will see them clinch first place.
Meanwhile, England racked up three straight wins and sealed passage as group winners with a match to spare courtesy of results elsewhere.
Who could qualify from Pool A?
After three games, France are top with 13 points and the All Blacks and Italy are tied behind them on 10 points each.
New Zealand are fresh from a 96-17 win over Italy and play Uruguay next on October 5, while the following day France take on Italy.
Uruguay and Namibia were pointless until the former got off the mark with a win over the latter – and Uruguay can still mathematically qualify, but it would take a monumental upset in their final match against New Zealand.
The All Blacks, France and Italy are the three teams in real contention for qualification this weekend, with New Zealand possibly best placed to advance.
Italy will have hopes of causing an upset against France – a tricky test for the hosts – but there is no doubt the heavy defeat to New Zealand will have rocked the confidence in the Italians’ camp.
France will top the group with a win or draw, while New Zealand will also qualify with a bonus-point victory over Uruguay.
There is, however, a glimmer of hope for Italy. If they finish level on 14 points with France, they will advance on account of having won their head-to-head match.
It’s certainly all to play for in Pool A.
Remaining Pool A fixtures
- October 5: New Zealand v Uruguay
- October 6: France v Italy
Who could qualify from Pool B?
The so-called ‘Pool of Death’ comes down to the final game for Ireland and Scotland, who lock horns for a place in the quarter-finals.
Whoever comes out on top will escape the group, and Ireland will overtake South Africa and top the group if they avoid defeat, or lose by four points or less.
But Ireland could crash out, as if Scotland were to triumph and deny Andy Farrell’s side a bonus point, they’d head through and the world’s top-ranked team would head home.
The Pool could go right down to the wire if all of Scotland, Ireland and South Africa finish on 15 points.
The team with the best points difference would qualify as group winners, with the remaining qualification slot going to the team that won the match between the second and third-placed sides.
Remaining Pool B fixtures
- October 7: Ireland v Scotland
- October 8: Tonga v Romania
Who could qualify from Pool C?
Wales qualified for the quarter-finals with a game to spare and are guaranteed a to go through as group winners with a bonus point in their final game against Georgia.
Now it’s down to Fiji to collect a single point against Portugal to join Warren Gatland’s team in the last eight, having already beaten Australia earlier in the tournament.
Eddie Jones’s side have had a dismal tournament in France, and are likely to be heading home by Sunday evening, unless…
If Fiji fail to pick up any points against Portugal, Australia will finish in second place, and against all odds, qualify for the last eight.
Remaining Pool C fixtures
- October 7: Wales v Georgia
- October 8: Fiji v Portugal
Who could qualify from Pool D?
England have already confirmed their status of Pool D winners with a game to spare.
Argentina and Japan meet on Sunday to battle it out for the second qualification spot, and the winner of that will proceed to the next round of the World Cup.
Both nations will have the opportunity to advance with a draw; it would then come down to bonus points, as well as Samoa’s result against England.
If both teams were to earn a try-winning bonus, Argentina would qualify because they have a better points difference.
Remaining Pool D fixtures
- October 7: England v Samoa
- October 8: Japan v Argentina
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