The Population of California Declined, Again

It was big news a few years ago when, for the first time in more than a century, California’s population shrank.

The small but still startling decline in 2020 was driven by Covid-19 deaths and falling immigration and birth rates, and it was something of a turning point for a huge state founded on rapid growth and long accustomed to it. The population slowdown even cost California a congressional seat.

Well, the state’s population dipped yet again in 2022, for the third year in a row. The number of people living in California fell by 138,443 last year, to 38.94 million, according to state data released this week.

Several trends that were made worse by the pandemic are contributing to the decline: a higher-than-normal death rate, a falling birthrate, a drop in international migration and a flow of Californians moving to other states.

Even after three years of decline, though, California remains by far the nation’s most populous state, home to one in eight U.S. residents. And the latest annual drop is the smallest since the downward trend began in 2020, suggesting another reversal of fortunes could be in store, according to H.D. Palmer, spokesman for the California Department of Finance.

“We see this slowing of the year-over-year declines,” Palmer told me. “We would expect to get back to a period of positive growth in the next 18 months, where we’d see a resumption of year-over-year growth in the state’s population.”

But there’s no guarantee.

The primary driver of the state’s population loss has been Californians moving to other states, like Texas, Nevada, Idaho or Oregon, according to Hans Johnson, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California. Between July 2021 and July 2022, the net movement out of California was a record 407,000 people, he said.

California has been losing residents to other states for decades, though that was usually offset by arriving immigrants, whose numbers plummeted in 2020. The growth in remote work has also allowed more people to seek cheaper housing in other states, enticing high-income and highly educated Californians to join the net exodus, according to Johnson’s analysis.

“In the past, California had continued to gain college graduates and people who had higher incomes, even as we were losing a very large number of less educated adults,” he said. “And then in the most recent couple years we’ve seen an outflow for every group.”

So, as the future of workplaces remains uncertain, so do the future demographics of California. While rates of international immigration will play a role, the key to the future population trend in the state is likely to be whether Californians continue to relocate to more affordable states or have to stay in the state (or return) to keep their jobs.

The state’s population peaked at 39,648,938 in January 2020 — just below the threshold of 40 million residents.

“California came right up to 40 million,” Johnson told me. “And then we inched back from it, and now we’ve inched back quite a ways from it — and it could be many years until we get there, if we ever do.”

Where we’re traveling

Today’s tip comes from Bill George, who recommends a drive from Sacramento to Truckee:

“My favorite trip is traveling I-80, following the route of the Central Pacific Railroad built in the 1860s, over the Sierra Nevada. It’s a 72-mile trip from Sacramento to Truckee. The road rises from 25 feet above sea level to the Sierra crest at Donner Summit, more than 7,000 feet high. A necklace of gold rush towns hugs the highway. Newcastle, Auburn, Dutch Flat, Gold Run, Cisco, and Truckee offer glimpses into California history. You can walk through granite tunnels. Chinese workers dug through 150 years ago and touch history. Check out the Red Frog bar in Colfax and squeeze into the Cape Room overlooking a huge mountainside called Cape Horn. In good weather, you can make the round trip in a long day. But you’ll want to visit again.

Tell us about your favorite places to visit in California. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com. We’ll be sharing more in upcoming editions of the newsletter.

And before you go, some good news

California has many lovely spots to visit year round, but spring is an exemplary time of year for the state. National parks, gorgeous lakes and hot springs are just a few choices.

To help both natives and visitors take advantage of the beautiful weather, Thrillist has compiled a list of not-so-known locations in the state that are worth a visit.

Thanks for reading. I’ll be back tomorrow. — Soumya

P.S. Here’s today’s Mini Crossword.

Briana Scalia, Isabella Grullón Paz and Camille Baker contributed to California Today. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.

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