The push to mine Earth’s final frontier

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In an extraordinary feat of engineering, a capsule carrying samples from an asteroid landed safely back on Earth last Sunday. While the 250g scoop will be assessed mainly to provide insights on our galaxy, it makes the idea of mining shooting stars for raw materials just a little less hypothetical. But before we become overexcited about outer space excavation, deposits closer to home deserve greater consideration — particularly those under the oceans.

Building the electric vehicles, wind turbines and solar panels needed to meet climate goals means the global demand for critical raw materials, including lithium, copper, cobalt and nickel, will more than double by 2030. The International Energy Agency has found that current mining plans are insufficient for the global 2050 net zero target. Geopolitical tensions with China — which dominates critical mineral supply chains — and the high geographic concentration of land reserves means diversity of supply matters. Indonesia, for instance, now produces half of the world’s nickel ore, a key component in EV batteries.

Innovative solutions are needed. One option attracting interest is the possibility of mining the sea floor. Earth’s “final frontier” could contain more nickel, cobalt and rare earth metals than all land-based reserves combined, according to the US Geological Survey. “Polymetallic nodules”, which can be found on the deepest and flattest parts of the ocean floor, are most promising. They contain several commodities in a purer form, compared to ores on land. Technological advances may soon make it feasible to pick up these potato-sized nodules and pipe them to a vessel on the surface. Other forms of deposits would be harder to harvest, and involve greater environmental disruption.

Exploration is under way, but deep-sea mining has not yet been undertaken commercially. Some governments and companies are keen to start soon. In theory, it could commence in countries’ domestically controlled waters. For international waters, where deposits look more fruitful, the UN’s International Seabed Authority is responsible for setting regulations and granting licenses. In July a deadline passed to agree whether, and how, deep-sea mining could be pursued, which means the ISA must now consider applications. It is working to adopt regulations by 2025. Meanwhile, several countries have backed a pause; British scientists called on the UK to follow suit earlier this month.

With little known about the deep ocean, it would be irresponsible to jump head first into harvesting the sea floor, particularly without any rules. Scientists have several concerns. The deep sea is one of the most biodiverse parts of the planet. The habitats of unique creatures and micro-organisms risk being destroyed. Toxic compounds and sediments can also be spread, and embedded carbon could be dislodged. Environmental protests are mounting, particularly around exploration in the mineral-rich Pacific. Seabed mining machinery is in any case still nascent, and its commercial viability remains questionable.

The environmental and economic costs of failing to meet net zero are, however, all too well known. If the seabed can also support and expedite the green transition, then we need to better understand the potential harms of mining there. Onshore projects, after all, have their own risks, from exploitation of child labour to harmful emissions and environmental damage. Harvesting more nickel will also involve clearing vast swaths of Indonesia’s biodiverse rainforests. Prospective miners, meanwhile, will need to prove their technology actually works and is economical, environmental harms can be mitigated, and risks are adequately evaluated.

Either way, the ISA needs to accelerate its road map to set standards and regulations. Lawless mining must be avoided. Research funding to assess environmental risks, careful testing of machinery, and exploration remains important. There are a lot of questions about exploiting our deep seas. They warrant urgent answers.

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