The Rafael Nadal-Novak Djokovic near-two decade monopoly at the Italian Open is over – what now?

Could it be that the fresh, new era of young superstars taking over the spotlight in men’s tennis is finally upon us, right here, right now as the 2023 European clay-court swing enters its grand finale?

It feels tantalisingly close after the near-two decade Rafael Nadal-Novak Djokovic monopoly of the Italian Open came to an end on Campo Centrale on Wednesday – but the true test of such a statement remains at the Grand Slams.

Over the past 10 years, many a starlet has been tipped to bring forward a changing of the guard and we’ve had a few false starts along the way, with the almost ageless trio of Roger Federer, Nadal and Djokovic continually defying both them and Father Time by hogging the major trophies, and embarrassing know-all pundits in their very own GOAT race.

But that clock is ticking down fast now. Federer is long retired with growing concerns that Nadal won’t be too far away from hanging up his racquet and strolling off into the Mallorcan sun.

The Spaniard has stood alongside Djokovic in denying the NextGen from taking over in recent years but the 36-year-old’s air of invincibility has faltered as a result of his almost continual battle with injuries. It has lengthened his absence from the tour more and more and left Djokovic as the last old-timer standing who can realistically halt the shift on a regular basis, particularly if we exclude Nadal on clay courts.

The Serb started the year with a record-equalling 22nd Grand Slam in Australia too, but since his absence from the ‘Sunshine Double’ as a result of his vaccination status, he has struggled to hit similar heights and it has allowed the likes of Carlos Alcaraz to gain some serious momentum at the summit of the ATP Tour.

It was here that he revealed an issue with his elbow that saw him skip Madrid, but the Serb insisted he was confident that his preparations for Roland Garros would be fine-tuned as he looked to defend his Rome crown.

However, his bid for a record-extending 39th Masters 1000 title came to a premature end in the Italian capital on Wednesday, as one of the youngsters tipped to forge part of the next ‘Big Three’, Holger Rune, outclassed the six-time champion to dump him out at the quarter final stage.

The 20-year-old Rune now has a 2-1 head-to-head record against Djokovic, having also upset him in the Paris Masters final late last year, and his variety on the clay was too good for the top seed in a highly-watchable, rain-interrupted encounter.

So, what does this particular result mean?

Well, let’s not go overboard. The Grand Slams remain the barometer of where the men’s game stands and despite an entertaining and sometimes unpredictable clay-swing so far, the French Open will be the acid test.

Djokovic was still upbeat about his chances of a third Roland Garros title in his post-match press conference here in Rome and also said any talk of it being the most open draw in terms of winning the clay-court major depended very much on Nadal’s fitness.

But, you can’t overlook the fact that this was only the fourth time since his second visit to the Foro Italico in 2007 that he has failed to move beyond the last eight, having reached eight of the last nine finals here. The loss may not affect his own thinking but it will slightly dent his aura amongst the rest of the locker room, who will feel he is more beatable at the moment.

And in a more broad context, we will now have the first new name on the men’s trophy in six years and only the third new name other than Nadal (10x winner) and Djokovic (six-time winner) in the last 18 years. Throw in the shock early exit of the previously in-form Alcaraz and it leaves us all wondering whether there is a clear favourite heading into Roland Garros.

The answer, of course, is that there simply is not and that is the beauty of it. Nadal is a question mark both in terms of fitness and match sharpness while Djokovic looks to be struggling to regain his top form.

Of course, you would be foolish to ever rule out a firing Nadal at Roland Garros or two-time champion Djokovic – and would anyone really be surprised if it was one of those two names being etched on to the trophy come June 11?

What is exciting is that US Open champion Alcaraz is right up there now while Rune, who also reached the Monte Carlo Masters final and retained his Munich title, will no doubt be in the mix whether he goes on to lift the Italian Open or not. The credentials for both players are there in relation to a healthy quota of silverware.

Indeed, beyond them there are a clutch of names who will all feel like they could really challenge for the title which, on paper, will make it the most open Roland Garros in decades.

Nadal’s Paris throne is far from vacated just yet, but what better way for an emerging star to answer that opening question of this piece in the most tangible way yet, by following up the end of the Rome monopoly by becoming only the fifth man to win the French Open since 2004?

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