To win the Tour de France this year, Tadej Pogacar needs to prepare to pull a Chris Froome – Opinion

More than four years after it happened, at the 2018 Giro d’Italia, Chris Froome’s 80km solo raid on the maglia rosa remains one of the most remarkable things many have ever seen someone do on a bike.

For the few of you who need reminding – as well as the rest, who might merely welcome the opportunity to relive it – it occurred midway through Stage 18 on what was, realistically, the last chance for any rider to make any meaningful difference to the overall race.

Going into the day in fourth place in the overall competition, 3’22 down on the lead of Simon Yates (Mitchelton-Scott), despite winning a stage, it had been a disappointing Grand Tour for Froome. At least by his own standards.

For him to leap up three places and into the race lead was, at least from outside his camp, an unimaginable prospect.

Inside the camp it was a different matter.

The stage was planned down to the last detail, and executed to perfection. Team Sky put the peloton under pressure early on, set a feverish pace onto the Colle delle Finestre, and prepared their leader to launch.

When he did just that there was nothing any of his rivals could do.

The rest, as they say, is history.

Though at this point in the Tour de France Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates) finds himself two places further up the GC standings than Froome was then, and a minute closer to the race lead, his situation at the 2022 Tour de France is ultimately more similar to Froome’s than it is different.

Despite there still being six stages of the race left, only one of those offers an appropriate/suitable platform for Pogacar to possibly pull back the 152 second deficit he has to Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo Visma).

That will arrive on Thursday which is also, with some symmetry, Stage 18.

By that point the race will be well and truly in the Pyrenees. Both the preceding stages are classified as mountainous, but none of the seven official climbs contained, bar perhaps the final ramps of the Mur de Peguere, are long or steep enough for Pogacar to make the necessary inroads on his rival.

Only the Aubisque, the Col de Spandelles and the Hautcam have what he needs.

Being the Pyrenees, none of these climbs are at anything like the altitude as the Col du Granon, where Vingegaard soared into the maillot jaune last week. The first and final are easily long enough, however; the middle, despite “only” being a cat 1 and completely new to the Tour, is no less of a monster.

The complete lack of flat from Laruns onwards takes away most of the team advantage Jumbo-Visma might have over UAE. After Stage 15 however, which saw Vingegaard lose the support of both Steven Kruijswijk and Primoz Roglic, it’s questionable whether one exists anymore anyway.

A team-mate up the road could be helpful but is essential.

Pogacar should pick out the place he will attack in advance. It should probably come sufficiently soon that he can build a lead slowly, but not too early that UAE do not have the the roadside resources to help him fuel fully. Towards the top of the Aubisque could be okay, if he’s feeling especially bold and bouncy. Mid-way up the Spandelles would probably be preferable.

An attack at either point will ask important questions of Vingegaard, not just physiological and tactical. Is it too risky to try to follow, or riskier not to? Either answer, or none, could show Pogacar the way to a third Tour de France victory in a row.

Whether or not he himself has the physical or psychological capacity to execute such a daring assault is down to him. If the Col du Granon leads you to suspect Vingegaard is simply the better climber, you will be confident he does not. On the other hand if you believe Pogacar was simply suffering from a case of hunger knock, then the fact he only lost three minutes that day, and no more the next, will have you drawing completely different conclusions.

If you still think Pogacar is a one-off, rather than one of two, it could be a sight to see.