Tom Suozzi, Mazi Pilip neck-and-neck in race to replace George Santos: poll

Democratic former Rep. Tom Suozzi and Republican Mazi Pilip are locked in a tight race in the special election to replace the ousted George Santos in Congress, according to a new poll.

Suozzi has the backing of 45% of registered voters in the Nassau County and eastern Queens-based Third District, while Pilip has 42% support, the Emerson College/PIX11 survey found.

With a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.1 percentage points, the narrow spread indicates a race that could go either way.

One Republican insider told The Post late Thursday the poll result was a “shock considering the money the Democrats have spent attacking Mazi” while top GOP campaign organizations — including the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Republican National Committee — have kept their powder dry so far.

A second Republican source noted that Democrats have splashed $8 million on ads, including Super PAC money, while the GOP has spent only $1 million to this point in the race.

Another 9% said they were undecided with fewer than four weeks to go before the Feb. 13 special vote, while 5% said they would support someone else.

More than one in five voters (21%) said they were not familiar with Pilip, an Ethiopia-born Nassau County legislator and mother of seven who emigrated to Israel at age 12 and later served as a paratrooper in the Israel Defense Forces.

Just 7% said they were unfamiliar with Suozzi, who represented the Third District for six years before stepping down in 2022 to pursue an unsuccessful run for governor.

Half of those surveyed said they had a “very” or “somewhat” favorable view of Suozzi, while 43% said the same of Pilip. The Democrat also had a 43% “very” or “somewhat” unfavorable rating, compared with 36% who said the same of Pilip.

“Suozzi voters currently express heightened enthusiasm, with a majority of those ‘very likely’ to vote on February 13 favoring Suozzi at 51% to 37%,” Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said in a statement.

“It’s noteworthy that the ‘very likely’ voter segment constitutes 84% of the sample,” he added. 

Suozzi tops Pilip among college-educated voters (48% to 44%), voters under 40 (53% to 34%), and both male (45% to 43%) and female voters (45% to 41%), the poll found. 

Pilip, however, dominates Suozzi among voters who have completed a high school degree or lower levels of education (53% to 30%), white voters (49% to 40%), and Hispanics (44% to 33%). 

Asian voters, on the other hand, support Suozzi by more than two-to-one (60% to 25%).

The survey also found that Suozzi holds a narrow lead despite President Biden receiving a dismal 33% approval rating among Third District voters, with 59% disapproving of the commander-in-chief.

Gov. Kathy Hochul is even less popular, with 25% approving of her work in Albany and 66% disapproving.

“This poll reveals exactly what we’ve known all along,” roared Pilip spokesperson Brian Devine. “CD-3 voters remember Suozzi’s dismal record of hiking taxes, welcoming illegal migrants, and voting with Joe Biden 100% of the time.

“The poll numbers show the momentum is clearly with Mazi,” Devine added. “She is on the right side of the issues, and we are confident that she will be celebrating a resounding victory come February 13th.”

The Emerson College/PIX11 poll surveyed 975 registered voters in New York’s Third Congressional District between Jan. 13-15.