Tour de France 2023 – Robbie McEwen’s sprinter rankings as Mark Cavendish given 1% chance of stage win

Mark Cavendish (Astana Qazaqstan) is among the headline speed acts at the 2023 Tour de France – but who will prove the strongest in the bunch sprints at cycling’s showpiece event?

Cavendish is targeting an outright record 35th stage win at the Tour in July, which would move him clear of Belgian great Eddy Merckx. One problem: Eurosport expert Robbie McEwen doesn’t fancy his chances and believes he only has a 1% chance of winning a stage.

We asked former Australian sprinter and 12-time Tour stage winner McEwen to rank the sprinters in France and, perhaps surprisingly, Cavendish is nowhere to be seen in the top three despite his return to winning ways at the Giro d’Italia. Or the top five, for that matter…

For clarity, Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) was not included in McEwen’s rankings. “I don’t call him a sprinter, but he can win them,” said McEwen, who will again be on The Breakaway throughout the Tour.

So who tops his sprinter rankings? And where is Cavendish? Let’s take a closer look…

1. Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin–Deceuninck)

Robbie McEwen: “He won’t be the fastest every time but I think he’ll be faster more often than the others. I see him winning two, possibly three stages.

“His endurance and his ability to recover make him my top pick. I think he recovers really well day to day and will seem just as fresh on Day 14 as he will on Day 3. He seems to go through the mountain stages relatively comfortably, time-limit wise.

“Now he’ll have some hard days but I think the others will have harder days. He will get to the end of the Tour in pretty good shape, whereas a number of the others will be on their hands and knees.”

2. Fabio Jakobsen (Soudal–Quick-Step)

RM: “It’s really hard to pick between Philipsen and Jakobsen. But I think as the race goes on, Philipsen is going to deal with the kilometres and the slog of the Tour a bit better.

“Jakobsen will be really good in the first sprint but he’ll get more tired as he drags himself through the Tour, given how hard it is. He gets my second pick purely because he’s riding off the wheel of Michael Morkov. If you’ve got a lead-out man like Morkov then you’ve got a big advantage.”

3. Dylan Groenewegen (Jayco–AlUla)

RM: “I’m putting Groenewegen third because I think he’s the fastest. The challenge for Jayco-AlUla is getting him in the right place at the right time.

“Positioning has been his Achilles heel. It’s never been a lack of speed, it’s never been a lack of strength, it’s just getting in the right position. Sometimes he gets dislodged from his own team-mates.

4. Caleb Ewan (Lotto–Dstny)

RM: “Caleb could really use a stage win after the year he has had.

“He’s had some close calls this season, a lot of bad luck and a couple of nasty crashes, but he still has the legs to win at the Tour.”

5. Mads Pedersen (Trek–Segafredo)

RM: “Mads will be a guy who is always there or thereabouts. I do see him winning a stage.

“He’ll come into his own on the harder days with a little more rolling terrain, maybe a Cat. 3 or Cat. 2 climb towards the end where he can hang in there. Or maybe a day when he’s dropped and gets back on – a lot of other sprinters, even if they get back, will be legless in the final sprint. That’s the type of stage Mads will win.”

6. Mark Cavendish (Astana Qazaqstan)

RM: “Can Mark Cavendish win a stage? I’m saying 99% no, 1% yes. He’s not the rider he was before.

“He showed at the Giro he can still win when the circumstances are perfect. But he doesn’t have an experienced lead-out and Astana are going to have to do a lot better than they’ve done up until now.

“But that 1% is there because I know if Cav can be in the right place at the right time, and if everything goes right for him, he can still cross the line first. So I won’t completely discount him but I don’t see him doing it against the level of competition that’s going to be at the Tour. But I’m happy to be proved wrong!”

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