Trump beats Biden, Newsom, Harris, Manchin in 2024: poll

Former President Donald Trump would not only defeat President Biden if the 2024 election were held today, he would also best four other Democrats who have been mooted to replace the 80-year-old incumbent on the ticket, a new poll has found.

The Fox News survey released Wednesday shows Trump, 77, leading Biden 50% to 46% among registered voters.

The same poll found that Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris 50% to 45%, California Gov. Gavin Newsom 49% to 45%, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer 48% to 46% and outgoing Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) 47% to 46% in hypothetical head-to-head matchups.

The Fox survey also shows Trump with a 49-percentage point lead in the national Republican primary, with 62% support compared to 13% for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is the only other GOP candidate to crack double digits (10%).

If either DeSantis or Haley manage to overhaul Trump and win the Republican nomination, the poll finds they would also defeat Biden next year — with DeSantis leading the Democrat 50% to 45% and Haley enjoying an 11-percentage point lead (52% to 41%).

The poll also shows majority disapproval of Biden’s performance while in office among four key demographic groups: men (63%), voters under the age of 45 (62%), Hispanics (60%), and college-educated voters (57%).

More than two-fifths of black voters (41%) also disapprove of Biden’s performance — the highest percentage recorded by the Fox survey.

In a hypothetical matchup with Haley, the poll finds the former ambassador to the United Nations would win 49% of women, 46% of voters under the age of 35, 56% of voters over the age of 65, 65% of independents, 54% of white college graduates, and 51% of self-described moderates.

Notably, Biden and Haley poll evenly among suburban women (47%-47%), a key demographic that has backed Democrats in recent election cycles.

Among self-described independents and white college graduates, Haley leads Biden by 43 percentage points and 9 percentage points, respectively. Trump maintains a 16-point advantage over the president among independents, but trails him by five among white college graduates.

The 45th president has also made gains with other voter groups central to Biden’s re-election effort since Fox’s October 2020 poll. Compared to three years ago, Trump’s support among independents has increased by 21 percentage points, among blacks by 15 percentage points, Hispanics by 13 percentage points, and eight percentage points among suburban voters.

Overall, 41% of registered voters approve of Biden’s job performance and 59% disapprove, while Trump has a 44% favorable rating and a 56% unfavorable rating.

Harris, 59, registered her worst approval numbers yet in the Fox survey, with 38% approving of her job performance and 59% disapproving.

“None of our previous data have shown an electability edge, on either side,” said Republican Daron Shaw, who conducted the Fox News poll with Democrat Chris Anderson.

“But in this poll, at this time, Haley can make the case she is best positioned to win back the White House.”

Biden remains well ahead in the Democratic primary, with 72% of his party’s voters supporting him, compared with 13% who back spiritual guru Marianne Williamson and 3% who support Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.).

In a hypothetical five-way matchup involving independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, as well as Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump leads Biden 41% to 35%, with Kennedy receiving 15% and West and Stein on 3% each.

“While most people have understandably been focused on how third-party options affect the major party candidates, the level of support itself is notable,” Shaw said.

“More than one voter in five is currently going rogue — more than for Ross Perot in 1992, John Anderson in 1980, or George Wallace in 1968. It’s a clear indictment with the leading Republican and Democratic candidates.”

The Fox News poll was conducted Nov. 10-13 with Beacon Research, a Democratic pollster, and Shaw & Company Research, a GOP pollster. It surveyed 1,001 registered voters nationwide via live interviews and both landline and cell phone calls.

The survey’s margin of error was plus-or-minus three percentage points for all registered voters; plus-or-minus 4.5 percentage points for Republican primary voters; and plus-or-minus five percentage points for Democratic primary voters.