Trump leads Biden in six swing states with or without third-party candidates

Former President Donald Trump leads President Biden in six out of seven battleground states regardless of whether third-party candidates are included in the survey, according to a new poll.

The Republican presidential primary front-runner is up on the Democratic incumbent by between one and nine percentage points head-to-head in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona and North Carolina, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll released Thursday. 

In Michigan, Trump and Biden were tied on 43% apiece.

All of those states, with the exception of North Carolina, narrowly went to Biden, 80, in 2020.

The six states account for 78 electoral votes. In 2020, Trump, 77, lost the Electoral College to Biden, 306-232. A candidate must receive 270 Electoral College votes to win the presidency.

In each state, the poll showed that independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West pulled voters away from supporting Trump or Biden in almost equal proportions.

In Georgia, Trump led Biden by nine points (43% to 34%) with the third-party candidates included and by seven points (48%-41%) without them. RFK Jr. receives 10% support in the Peach State, with West on 1%. 

In Pennsylvania, Trump wins by three points in both a head-to head matchup (47% to 44%) and in a contest with West and Kennedy Jr. in the picture (Trump 41%, Biden 38%, Kennedy 8%, West 1%). 

In Wisconsin, Trump wins by one point without the independents (47% to 46%) and by two points with them (Trump 38%, Biden 36%, Kennedy 13%, West 2%). 

In Nevada, Trump wins by three points head-to-head (46% to 43%) and four points with third-party options presented (Trump 39%, Biden 35%, Kennedy 11%, West 1%). 

In Arizona, Trump wins by four points in both scenarios; 46% to 42% head-to-head and 40% to 36% in a four-way fight with Kennedy getting 11% and West on 1%. 

In North Carolina, Trump wins by nine points in both the head-to-head (48% to 39%) and four-way race (Trump 42%, Biden 33%, Kennedy 9%, West 2%).

Michigan, where 16 electoral college votes are at stake, is the only state where Biden comes out on top with Kennedy and West in the mix, the survey shows.  

The incumbent beats the GOP favorite in the Great Lakes State by one percentage point (Biden 38%, Trump 37%, Kennedy 10%, West 2%).

The results track with polls released earlier this week by the New York Times/Siena College and Emerson College that show Biden failing to get the support he needs in the states where he needs it most.

The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll was conducted online between Oct. 30 and Nov. 7. It surveyed 800 registered voters in Arizona, 803 in Georgia, 700 in Michigan, 437 in Nevada, 702 in North Carolina, 805 in Pennsylvania and 675 in Wisconsin.

The margin of errors in the respective polls were plus-or-minus three percentage points in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania; four percentage points in Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, and five percentage points in Nevada.